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PIT
PIT@CHC
FIRST PITCH
CHC
Game 11 of 15 Sun · Sep 13, 6:20 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · PIT vs Matthew Boyd · CHC vs Bubba Chandler

#1Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-ArmstrongLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
CHC· CFvs PIT RHP Chandler
🟢 Strong
Test
76
Ceil
76
Likely
64
kHR
80
Zone
46
Form
100%
EV
90.6
Brl%
13.2%
ISO
.289
xwOBA
.373
xwOBAc
.513
SwStr%
13.2%
PullBrl
6.6%
SwtSp%
38.3%
HH%
49.0%
strong Barrel 13%, elite ISO .289, pull-side power+424MODEL
#2Oneil Cruz
Oneil CruzLHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
PIT· CFvs CHC LHP Boyd
🟢 Strong
Test
68
Ceil
65
Likely
59
kHR
79
Zone
43
Form
96%
EV
94.5
Brl%
15.9%
ISO
.226
xwOBA
.373
xwOBAc
.530
SwStr%
11.5%
PullBrl
5.3%
SwtSp%
36.5%
HH%
53.0%
elite Barrel 16%, power ISO .226, 94.5 EV+424MODEL
#3Rafael Flores Jr.
Rafael Flores Jr.RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
PIT· 1Bvs CHC LHP Boyd
🟠 Longshot
Test
58
Ceil
59
Likely
53
kHR
68
Zone
41
Form
70%
EV
93.0
Brl%
12.4%
ISO
.167
xwOBA
.373
xwOBAc
.538
SwStr%
12.3%
PullBrl
4.3%
SwtSp%
32.7%
HH%
54.0%
strong Barrel 12%, 93.0 EV (matchup soft)+599MODEL
#4Miguel Amaya
Miguel AmayaRHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot
CHC· Cvs PIT RHP Chandler
🟠 Longshot
Test
58
Ceil
56
Likely
51
kHR
66
Zone
37
Form
77%
EV
91.5
Brl%
10.9%
ISO
.219
xwOBA
.376
xwOBAc
.531
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
4.6%
SwtSp%
33.3%
HH%
46.4%
strong Barrel 11%, power ISO .219 (matchup soft)+631MODEL
#5Ian Happ
Ian HappSHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
CHC· LFvs PIT RHP Chandler
🟠 Longshot
Test
54
Ceil
51
Likely
47
kHR
64
Zone
31
Form
78%
EV
89.3
Brl%
11.3%
ISO
.192
xwOBA
.313
xwOBAc
.402
SwStr%
13.4%
PullBrl
5.3%
SwtSp%
31.8%
HH%
41.4%
strong Barrel 11%, pull-side power (matchup soft)+680MODEL
#6Bryan Reynolds
Bryan ReynoldsSHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
PIT· LFvs CHC LHP Boyd
🟠 Longshot
Test
50
Ceil
55
Likely
50
kHR
62
Zone
41
Form
65%
EV
91.0
Brl%
11.9%
ISO
.166
xwOBA
.362
xwOBAc
.487
SwStr%
13.2%
PullBrl
4.7%
SwtSp%
39.5%
HH%
48.4%
strong Barrel 12% (matchup soft)+706MODEL
#7Seiya Suzuki
Seiya SuzukiRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
CHC· RFvs PIT RHP Chandler
🟠 Longshot
Test
50
Ceil
50
Likely
46
kHR
60
Zone
36
Form
81%
EV
88.5
Brl%
10.5%
ISO
.210
xwOBA
.340
xwOBAc
.461
SwStr%
9.5%
PullBrl
4.3%
SwtSp%
37.4%
HH%
38.8%
strong Barrel 10%, power ISO .210 (matchup soft)+750MODEL
#8Michael Busch
Michael BuschLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
CHC· 1Bvs PIT RHP Chandler
🟠 Longshot
Test
50
Ceil
48
Likely
44
kHR
59
Zone
33
Form
59%
EV
88.5
Brl%
9.0%
ISO
.154
xwOBA
.330
xwOBAc
.432
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.5%
SwtSp%
34.0%
HH%
40.1%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+790MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — PIT
vs Matthew Boyd (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

PITPIT
vs Matthew Boyd (CHC)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — CHC
vs Bubba Chandler (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

CHCCHC
vs Bubba Chandler (PIT)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
PIT + CHC · Combined Hitter Matrix
Both lineups in one table · sticky HITTER + TEAM columns · filter to one side with the chips
PITvsCHC

PIT + CHC hitters

combined matrix · click any header to sort · click a row for detail
HitterTeamHandMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
PIT Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
PIT hitters vsMatthew Boyd(CHC)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Konnor GriffinKonnor GriffinRHB
.275.418.1439%40%26%
.283.395.1127%41%25%
.241.368.1277%35%36%
.226.345.1197%35%43%
.215.317.1027%33%46%
.234.358.1247%34%38%
.234.338.1047%32%39%
.212.294.0826%30%46%
#2Oneil CruzOneil CruzLHB
.287.517.23018%60%31%
.295.489.19414%61%29%
.251.455.20416%53%42%
.206.375.16914%46%58%
.196.344.14812%43%62%
.213.388.17514%45%52%
.267.458.19116%53%42%
.241.399.15814%49%49%
#3Bryan ReynoldsBryan ReynoldsSHB
.277.463.18613%52%24%
.285.438.15310%53%23%
.243.408.16511%46%33%
.216.365.14911%44%41%
.206.335.1299%41%44%
.224.378.15411%43%37%
.248.395.14711%45%34%
.224.343.11910%41%40%
#4Rafael Flores Jr.Rafael Flores Jr.RHB
.263.540.27716%53%27%
.270.510.24012%54%25%
.230.475.24513%46%36%
.215.446.23113%46%43%
.205.410.20512%44%46%
.223.462.23914%45%39%
.223.437.21413%43%39%
.202.380.17811%39%46%
#5Nick GonzalesNick GonzalesRHB
.320.423.1033%37%20%
.329.400.0713%37%18%
.281.372.0913%32%26%
.263.350.0873%32%32%
.250.321.0713%30%34%
.272.362.0903%31%29%
.272.343.0713%30%29%
.246.298.0523%27%34%
#6Ryan O'HearnRyan O'HearnLHB
.281.495.2148%47%19%
.289.467.1786%48%18%
.247.435.1887%42%25%
.202.358.1566%36%35%
.192.329.1375%34%37%
.210.371.1616%36%31%
.262.438.1767%42%26%
.237.381.1446%39%30%
#7Jake MangumJake MangumSHB
.295.395.1002%29%18%
.303.373.0702%29%17%
.259.348.0892%25%24%
.230.311.0812%24%30%
.219.285.0662%23%33%
.239.322.0832%23%27%
.264.337.0732%25%25%
.239.293.0542%23%29%
#8Jared TrioloJared TrioloRHB
.256.338.0823%36%18%
.264.319.0552%37%17%
.224.297.0732%32%25%
.210.279.0692%32%30%
.200.256.0562%30%32%
.218.289.0712%31%27%
.218.274.0562%29%27%
.197.238.0412%27%32%
#9Henry DavisHenry DavisRHB
.175.324.14910%44%22%
.180.306.1267%45%20%
.154.285.1318%39%29%
.144.268.1248%38%35%
.137.246.1097%36%37%
.149.277.1288%38%31%
.149.262.1138%36%32%
.135.228.0937%33%37%
CHC Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
CHC hitters vsBubba Chandler(PIT)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Pete Crow-ArmstrongPete Crow-ArmstrongLHB
.293.611.31814%53%23%
.301.577.27611%54%21%
.257.538.28112%47%31%
.240.505.26512%46%37%
.229.464.23511%44%39%
.249.523.27413%45%33%
.249.495.24612%43%34%
.225.430.20511%40%39%
#2Seiya SuzukiSeiya SuzukiRHB
.284.518.23412%42%20%
.292.490.1989%43%19%
.248.456.20810%37%27%
.204.375.1719%32%37%
.194.344.1508%30%40%
.211.389.1789%31%34%
.264.459.19511%37%27%
.239.399.1609%34%32%
#3Michael BuschMichael BuschLHB
.249.428.17910%43%22%
.256.404.1488%44%21%
.218.376.1589%38%30%
.204.353.1499%38%36%
.194.324.1308%36%38%
.212.366.1549%37%32%
.212.346.1348%35%33%
.191.301.1107%32%38%
#4Alex BregmanAlex BregmanRHB
.277.486.2096%41%13%
.285.459.1745%41%13%
.243.427.1846%36%18%
.199.352.1535%31%25%
.189.323.1344%29%27%
.206.364.1585%30%22%
.258.431.1736%36%18%
.233.374.1415%33%21%
#5Ian HappIan HappSHB
.230.443.21312%45%26%
.237.418.18110%46%25%
.201.389.18811%40%35%
.180.348.16810%38%44%
.171.320.1499%36%47%
.186.361.17510%37%40%
.206.377.17111%39%37%
.186.328.14210%36%43%
#6Nico HoernerNico HoernerRHB
.280.389.1092%31%10%
.288.367.0791%32%10%
.246.342.0961%28%14%
.201.282.0811%24%19%
.192.258.0661%23%20%
.209.291.0821%24%17%
.261.344.0832%28%14%
.236.300.0641%26%16%
#7Michael ConfortoMichael ConfortoLHB
.251.517.26612%44%24%
.258.489.2319%45%22%
.220.455.23510%39%32%
.206.428.22210%39%38%
.196.392.1969%37%41%
.213.443.23011%38%34%
.213.419.20610%36%35%
.193.364.1719%33%41%
#8Pedro RamírezPedro RamírezSHB
.279.468.1895%43%17%
.287.442.1554%44%16%
.245.411.1665%38%24%
.218.368.1504%36%30%
.207.338.1314%34%32%
.226.381.1554%35%27%
.250.398.1485%37%25%
.226.346.1204%34%29%
#9Miguel AmayaMiguel AmayaRHB
.246.389.1437%37%24%
.253.367.1146%38%23%
.215.342.1276%33%33%
.177.282.1056%28%45%
.168.258.0905%27%48%
.183.291.1086%28%40%
.229.344.1157%33%33%
.207.300.0936%30%38%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHand★SpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Pete Crow-Armstrong
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M46.000668N/A41N/A.279.373.566.289.39911.5%90.6
Oneil Cruz
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M43.000375N/A18N/A.273.360.479.226.36411.2%94.5
Rafael Flores Jr.
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+599M41.000123N/A8N/A.250.317.500.167.3508.9%93.0
Miguel Amaya
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+631M37.000233N/A5N/A.234.343.360.219.3219.9%91.5
Ian Happ
SHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+680M31.000591N/A23N/A.219.327.410.192.32612.7%89.3
Bryan Reynolds
SHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+706M41.000649N/A17N/A.264.368.429.166.35212.8%91.0
Seiya Suzuki
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+750M36.000579N/A24N/A.270.370.480.210.36913.1%88.5
Michael Busch
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+790M33.000655N/A19N/A.237.345.396.154.33112.5%88.5
Alex Bregman
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1141M34.000665N/A25N/A.264.353.450.186.35210.7%88.2
Pedro Ramírez
SHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M36.000224N/A6N/A.266.323.433.134.3267.6%88.8
Konnor Griffin
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1210M35.000280N/A5N/A.262.318.387.125.3116.4%89.1
Ryan O'Hearn
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1158M37.000404N/A18N/A.268.332.458.156.3437.7%89.9
Jared Triolo
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1210M35.000345N/A3N/A.244.317.313.129.2878.1%89.2
Henry Davis
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1248M34.000279N/A9N/A.167.268.300.111.2609.3%88.8
Michael Conforto
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+1192M31.000274N/A14N/A.239.336.479.134.35011.7%89.3
Nick Gonzales
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1397M32.000568N/A6N/A.305.368.392.087.3407.0%86.1
Jake Mangum
SHB#7 · Secondary Power+1351M31.000443N/A4N/A.281.337.366.072.3145.2%87.8
Nico Hoerner
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1472M35.000637N/A8N/A.267.320.360.093.3036.4%86.0
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Bubba Chandler
Bubba Chandler
PIT · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season136.7593.228—.303.0751.37130.8611.6%22.5%20.6%11.3%22.5%8.03——5.7%38.4%27.3%——
vs LHB77.3341.230.321.340.1101.42111.2812.0%22.5%20.5%—22.5%8.15——5.7%38.4%27.3%——
vs RHB64.0272.207.255.231.0241.2520.2811.0%22.5%21.7%—22.5%8.30——5.7%38.4%27.3%——
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
L3025.7105.221—.316.0951.1731.058.6%22.5%24.8%—22.5%9.12——5.7%38.4%27.3%——
L1516.766.213—.311.0981.0821.087.6%22.5%22.7%—22.5%8.10——5.7%38.4%27.3%——
Matthew Boyd
Matthew Boyd
CHC · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season109.3450.244—.354.1101.22151.237.3%22.4%19.1%8.8%22.4%7.08——9.0%38.3%24.1%——
vs LHB30.3123.211.262.239.0281.2210.3011.4%22.4%20.3%—22.4%7.42——9.0%38.3%24.1%——
vs RHB77.3327.250.325.386.1361.24141.635.8%22.4%18.7%—22.4%7.10——9.0%38.3%24.1%——
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
L3029.7121.239—.404.1651.2161.828.3%22.4%16.5%—22.4%6.07——9.0%38.3%24.1%——
L1518.369.234—.281.0471.0910.497.2%22.4%21.7%—22.4%7.36——9.0%38.3%24.1%——
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Bubba Chandler
Bubba Chandler
PIT · RHP · 6 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball48.3%—.229.332.383.154—0.0%22.3%20.8%16.1%0.0%98.4——0.0%41.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider20.3%—.236.333.394.158—0.0%24.1%22.0%17.5%0.0%91.0——0.0%45.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup14.6%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%91.6——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker8.2%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%97.8——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper4.3%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.7——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball4.3%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.6——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Matthew Boyd
Matthew Boyd
CHC · LHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball43.7%—.294.376.472.178—0.0%15.0%11.8%11.9%0.0%92.7——0.0%53.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup26.8%—.233.295.391.158—0.0%26.2%16.3%13.3%0.0%78.6——0.0%24.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider15.2%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%83.0——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball12.9%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%73.1——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker1.3%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%91.9——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-09-13 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Sep 2026