Clutch Algorithm
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KC
KC@CWS
FIRST PITCH
CWS
Game 9 of 15 Sun · Jun 28, 6:10 PM
CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · KC vs Anthony Kay · CWS vs Luinder Avila

#1Colson Montgomery
Colson MontgomeryLHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
CWS· SSvs KC RHP Avila
🔥 Elite
Test
83
Ceil
90
Likely
70
kHR
85
Zone
44
Form
100%
EV
90.1
Brl%
14.5%
ISO
.263
xwOBA
.329
xwOBAc
.441
SwStr%
20.0%
PullBrl
7.3%
SwtSp%
35.0%
HH%
46.4%
elite Barrel 14%, elite ISO .263, pull-air 18%+424MODEL
#2Braden Montgomery
Braden MontgomerySHB#6 · Secondary Power
CWS· RFvs KC RHP Avila
🔥 Elite
Test
83
Ceil
90
Likely
70
kHR
85
Zone
44
Form
100%
EV
90.1
Brl%
14.5%
ISO
.263
xwOBA
.329
xwOBAc
.441
SwStr%
20.0%
PullBrl
7.3%
SwtSp%
35.0%
HH%
46.4%
elite Barrel 14%, elite ISO .263, pull-air 18%+424MODEL
#3Miguel Vargas
Miguel VargasRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
CWS· 3Bvs KC RHP Avila
🟢 Strong
Test
77
Ceil
92
Likely
73
kHR
81
Zone
57
Form
100%
EV
90.0
Brl%
14.3%
ISO
.238
xwOBA
.396
xwOBAc
.543
SwStr%
9.0%
PullBrl
6.1%
SwtSp%
41.8%
HH%
45.5%
elite Barrel 14%, power ISO .238, pull-side power+424MODEL
#4Jac Caglianone
Jac CaglianoneLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
KC· 1Bvs CWS LHP Kay
🟢 Strong
Test
69
Ceil
67
Likely
61
kHR
81
Zone
43
Form
99%
EV
94.1
Brl%
17.1%
ISO
.220
xwOBA
.379
xwOBAc
.546
SwStr%
15.5%
PullBrl
7.2%
SwtSp%
38.9%
HH%
58.9%
elite Barrel 17%, power ISO .220, 94.1 EV+424MODEL
#5Bobby Witt Jr.
Bobby Witt Jr.RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
KC· SSvs CWS LHP Kay
🟠 Longshot
Test
59
Ceil
61
Likely
55
kHR
68
Zone
45
Form
67%
EV
93.2
Brl%
12.0%
ISO
.169
xwOBA
.390
xwOBAc
.568
SwStr%
11.2%
PullBrl
3.3%
SwtSp%
38.2%
HH%
52.0%
strong Barrel 12%, 93.2 EV (matchup soft)+599MODEL
#6Starling Marte
Starling MarteRHB#7 · Secondary Power
KC· RFvs CWS LHP Kay
🟠 Longshot
Test
59
Ceil
56
Likely
52
kHR
66
Zone
44
Form
74%
EV
91.3
Brl%
10.6%
ISO
.194
xwOBA
.368
xwOBAc
.547
SwStr%
9.9%
PullBrl
5.5%
SwtSp%
32.3%
HH%
45.9%
strong Barrel 11% (matchup soft)+631MODEL
#7Carter Jensen
Carter JensenLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
KC· DHvs CWS LHP Kay
🟠 Longshot
Test
55
Ceil
51
Likely
46
kHR
61
Zone
33
Form
70%
EV
90.9
Brl%
8.6%
ISO
.190
xwOBA
.291
xwOBAc
.401
SwStr%
12.9%
PullBrl
3.4%
SwtSp%
31.2%
HH%
43.0%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+728MODEL
#8Salvador Perez
Salvador PerezRHB#6 · Secondary Power
KC· Cvs CWS LHP Kay
🟠 Longshot
Test
47
Ceil
48
Likely
44
kHR
57
Zone
34
Form
59%
EV
88.7
Brl%
9.5%
ISO
.130
xwOBA
.284
xwOBAc
.416
SwStr%
14.4%
PullBrl
3.8%
SwtSp%
32.2%
HH%
40.9%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+834MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — KC
vs Anthony Kay (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

KCKC
vs Anthony Kay (CWS)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — CWS
vs Luinder Avila (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

CWSCWS
vs Luinder Avila (KC)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
KC vs Anthony Kay
9 hitters · primary stack for the away offense
KC

KC hitters

vsAnthony Kay(CWSCWS)LHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBKCvs CWS LHP Kay#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M68.766.543.00099%80.61,143175.220.379.54615.5%7.2%94.117.1%38.9%25.1%58.9%8.061
RHBKCvs CWS LHP Kay#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+599M58.761.345.00067%68.31,330244.169.390.56811.2%3.3%93.212.0%38.2%27.2%52.0%17.255
RHBKCvs CWS LHP Kay#7 · Secondary Power+631M58.755.944.00074%66.21,322263.194.368.5479.9%5.5%91.310.6%32.3%24.8%45.9%11.452
LHBKCvs CWS LHP Kay#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+728M54.751.033.00070%61.31,135181.190.291.40112.9%3.4%90.98.6%31.2%33.9%43.0%20.146
RHBKCvs CWS LHP Kay#6 · Secondary Power+834M46.747.634.00059%57.21,260238.130.284.41614.4%3.8%88.79.5%32.2%28.9%40.9%16.644
RHBKCvs CWS LHP Kay#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1229M32.745.234.00048%44.155481.112.283.29611.3%2.2%88.85.6%31.7%30.2%38.4%14.039
LHBKCvs CWS LHP Kay#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M32.747.636.00047%45.4846128.132.310.38511.3%2.7%89.36.6%32.0%30.6%39.9%14.440
LHBKCvs CWS LHP Kay#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1329M30.742.632.00024%40.8823141.079.273.30911.3%1.6%88.04.0%31.2%29.6%35.9%13.436
SHBKCvs CWS LHP Kay#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1248M30.745.634.00031%43.21,061165.091.309.3999.0%2.6%88.45.9%32.0%27.2%40.2%17.538
CWS vs Luinder Avila
9 hitters · primary stack for the home offense
CWS

CWS hitters

vsLuinder Avila(KCKC)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBCWSvs KC RHP Avila#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M82.790.144.000100%85.01,248180.263.329.44120.0%7.3%90.114.5%35.0%36.1%46.4%21.270
SHBCWSvs KC RHP Avila#6 · Secondary Power+424M82.790.144.000100%85.01,248180.263.329.44120.0%7.3%90.114.5%35.0%36.1%46.4%21.270
RHBCWSvs KC RHP Avila#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M76.792.357.000100%81.21,338230.238.396.5439.0%6.1%90.014.3%41.8%35.8%45.5%19.673
RHBCWSvs KC RHP Avila#3 · Premium RBI/Power+853M46.765.935.00061%56.41,143211.173.328.42811.3%3.5%90.38.6%32.6%31.5%43.0%15.150
RHBCWSvs KC RHP Avila#7 · Secondary Power+834M46.761.831.00059%57.21,260238.130.284.41614.4%3.8%88.79.5%32.2%28.9%40.9%16.648
LHBCWSvs KC RHP Avila#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1210M32.763.632.00039%44.6987177.121.386.50011.3%2.4%89.06.0%31.8%30.4%39.1%14.244
LHBCWSvs KC RHP Avila#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M32.761.031.00049%44.226944.114.334.40211.3%2.3%88.85.7%31.7%30.3%38.5%14.143
LHBCWSvs KC RHP Avila#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1175M32.765.233.00053%45.81,158176.138.383.47911.3%2.8%89.56.9%32.1%30.8%40.4%14.545
RHBCWSvs KC RHP Avila#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1308M30.756.433.00037%41.61,291212.108.284.3938.3%1.9%87.74.7%33.9%20.2%34.6%7.041
KC Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
KC hitters vsAnthony Kay(CWS)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Carter JensenCarter JensenLHB
.256.472.21610%47%25%
.264.446.1828%48%24%
.224.415.1918%41%34%
.184.342.1587%36%46%
.175.314.1397%34%50%
.191.354.1637%35%42%
.239.418.1799%41%34%
.216.364.1488%38%40%
#2Bobby Witt Jr.Bobby Witt Jr.RHB
.309.502.19313%57%20%
.318.474.15610%58%19%
.270.442.17212%50%27%
.253.415.16211%50%32%
.241.381.14010%47%35%
.262.430.16812%49%29%
.263.406.14311%46%30%
.237.353.11610%42%35%
#3Jac CaglianoneJac CaglianoneLHB
.281.522.24118%63%26%
.289.493.20414%65%24%
.247.459.21216%56%35%
.202.378.17614%49%48%
.192.347.15512%46%51%
.210.391.18114%47%43%
.262.462.20017%56%35%
.237.402.16515%52%41%
#4Lane ThomasLane ThomasRHB
.231.375.1445%38%16%
.238.354.1164%39%15%
.202.330.1284%34%22%
.189.310.1214%34%26%
.180.284.1044%32%28%
.196.321.1254%33%24%
.196.303.1074%31%24%
.178.264.0864%29%28%
#5Josh RojasJosh RojasLHB
.315.756.44112%60%16%
.324.714.3909%61%15%
.276.665.38911%53%22%
.226.547.3219%46%30%
.215.502.2878%44%32%
.235.567.3329%45%27%
.293.670.37711%53%22%
.265.582.31710%49%25%
#6Salvador PerezSalvador PerezRHB
.211.359.14811%44%21%
.217.339.1228%45%20%
.185.315.1309%39%29%
.173.296.1239%39%34%
.165.272.1078%37%37%
.179.307.1289%38%31%
.179.290.1119%36%32%
.162.252.0908%33%37%
#7Starling MarteStarling MarteRHB
.274.368.09414%41%25%
.282.348.06611%41%24%
.240.324.08412%36%34%
.225.304.07912%35%41%
.214.279.06511%34%44%
.233.315.08212%35%37%
.233.298.06511%33%37%
.211.259.04810%30%44%
#8Kameron MisnerKameron MisnerLHB
.300.347.0470%19%26%
.309.327.0180%19%25%
.263.305.0420%17%36%
.216.251.0350%15%49%
.205.230.0250%14%52%
.224.260.0360%14%44%
.280.307.0270%17%36%
.253.267.0140%16%42%
#9Isaac CollinsIsaac CollinsSHB
.236.338.1027%43%20%
.243.319.0765%44%18%
.207.297.0906%38%26%
.184.266.0825%36%33%
.176.244.0685%34%36%
.191.275.0846%35%30%
.211.288.0776%37%28%
.191.250.0595%34%32%
CWS Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
CWS hitters vsLuinder Avila(KC)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Sam AntonacciSam AntonacciLHB
.300.446.1468%40%14%
.309.421.1127%41%13%
.263.392.1297%35%18%
.246.369.1237%35%22%
.234.338.1046%33%24%
.255.382.1277%34%20%
.255.361.1067%32%20%
.231.314.0836%30%23%
#2Miguel VargasMiguel VargasRHB
.252.508.25616%49%17%
.259.479.22012%50%16%
.221.446.22514%43%23%
.181.368.18712%37%32%
.172.337.16511%35%34%
.188.381.19312%37%29%
.235.450.21515%43%23%
.212.391.17913%40%27%
#3Randal GrichukRandal GrichukRHB
.284.633.34917%53%22%
.292.598.30613%54%21%
.248.557.30915%46%30%
.204.458.25413%40%41%
.194.421.22711%38%43%
.211.474.26313%40%36%
.264.561.29716%47%30%
.239.488.24914%43%35%
#4Colson MontgomeryColson MontgomeryLHB
.230.525.29516%50%33%
.237.496.25912%51%31%
.201.462.26114%44%44%
.189.434.24514%44%53%
.179.398.21912%42%56%
.195.449.25414%43%47%
.196.425.22913%41%48%
.177.369.19212%38%56%
#5Chase MeidrothChase MeidrothRHB
.279.407.1285%38%17%
.287.385.0984%39%16%
.245.358.1135%33%23%
.201.295.0944%29%32%
.191.271.0804%28%34%
.208.305.0974%29%29%
.260.361.1015%34%23%
.235.314.0794%31%27%
#6Braden MontgomeryBraden MontgomerySHB
.263.517.25410%43%26%
.270.489.2197%44%24%
.230.455.2258%38%35%
.205.407.2028%36%44%
.195.374.1797%34%47%
.212.422.2108%35%40%
.235.441.2068%37%37%
.212.383.1717%34%43%
#7Junior PerezJunior PerezRHB
.233.600.3670%65%35%
.240.567.3270%66%33%
.204.528.3240%57%48%
.167.435.2680%50%66%
.159.399.2400%47%70%
.174.450.2760%49%59%
.217.532.3150%57%48%
.196.463.2670%53%56%
#8Jacob GonzalezJacob GonzalezLHB
.198.265.0673%42%20%
.204.250.0462%43%19%
.174.233.0593%37%28%
.163.219.0563%37%33%
.155.201.0462%35%35%
.169.226.0573%36%30%
.169.214.0453%34%30%
.153.186.0332%31%35%
#9Kyle TeelKyle TeelLHB
.150.154.0040%27%35%
.154.146.0000%28%33%
.132.136.0040%24%47%
.123.128.0050%24%57%
.117.117.0000%22%61%
.128.132.0040%23%51%
.128.125.0000%22%52%
.115.109.0000%20%61%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Colson Montgomery
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M44.000316N/A20N/A.219.313.486.263.3449.2%90.1
Braden Montgomery
SHB#6 · Secondary Power+424M44.00053N/A2N/A.250.302.479.263.3347.5%90.1
Miguel Vargas
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M57.000337N/A17N/A.240.354.470.238.36013.6%90.0
Jac Caglianone
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M43.000289N/A14N/A.268.339.483.220.3588.3%94.1
Bobby Witt Jr.
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+599M45.000337N/A10N/A.294.368.465.169.36210.4%93.2
Starling Marte
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+631M44.00099N/A1N/A.261.323.341.194.2987.1%91.3
Carter Jensen
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+728M33.000287N/A11N/A.244.314.437.190.3259.4%90.9
Salvador Perez
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+834M34.000320N/A10N/A.201.244.332.130.2523.8%88.7
Randal Grichuk
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+853M35.000118N/A9N/A.270.305.586.173.3764.2%90.3
Junior Perez
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+834M31.00010N/A1N/A.222.300.556.130.36410.0%88.7
Lane Thomas
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1229M34.000206N/A5N/A.220.335.347.112.31114.1%88.8
Kameron Misner
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M36.00030N/AN/AN/A.286.310.321.132.2833.3%89.3
Sam Antonacci
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1210M32.000243N/A4N/A.286.386.413.121.3607.4%89.0
Jacob Gonzalez
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M31.00060N/A1N/A.189.283.245.114.2518.3%88.8
Kyle Teel
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1175M33.0009N/AN/AN/A.143.333.143.138.25811.1%89.5
Josh Rojas
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1329M32.00010N/A1N/A.300.300.700.079.4210.0%88.0
Isaac Collins
SHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1248M34.000269N/A3N/A.225.333.313.091.29912.3%88.4
Chase Meidroth
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1308M33.000325N/A6N/A.266.331.377.108.3168.3%87.7
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Luinder Avila
Luinder Avila
KC · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season24.3109.256.389.1331.6941.4816.5%25.0%21.1%4.1%25.0%8.516.8%31.9%29.4%
vs LHB26.0111.265.339.357.0921.5031.0411.7%25.0%22.5%25.0%8.656.8%31.9%29.4%
vs RHB16.375.262.345.311.0491.8410.5518.7%25.0%18.7%25.0%7.716.8%31.9%29.4%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3021.391.200.320.1201.4131.2716.5%25.0%20.9%25.0%8.026.8%31.9%29.4%
L1511.352.256.395.1391.6821.5915.4%25.0%21.2%25.0%8.746.8%31.9%29.4%
Anthony Kay
Anthony Kay
CWS · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season69.3313.253.363.1101.39101.308.6%22.2%19.8%11.5%22.2%8.059.4%39.3%21.8%
vs LHB20.788.160.250.235.0750.9720.878.0%22.2%30.7%22.2%11.769.4%39.3%21.8%
vs RHB55.3258.268.341.383.1151.5591.468.9%22.2%14.0%22.2%5.869.4%39.3%21.8%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3024.0110.263.384.1211.3841.506.4%22.2%21.8%22.2%9.009.4%39.3%21.8%
L1515.067.220.271.0511.1310.606.0%22.2%25.4%22.2%10.209.4%39.3%21.8%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Luinder Avila
Luinder Avila
KC · RHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball26.1%.293.380.439.1460.0%20.7%14.6%15.6%0.0%96.20.0%26.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker25.4%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%96.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider24.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball14.0%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup9.6%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%89.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Anthony Kay
Anthony Kay
CWS · LHP · 6 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball24.1%.272.380.506.2340.0%17.2%17.7%12.8%0.0%95.80.0%39.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper21.9%.243.348.378.1350.0%33.3%23.4%12.6%0.0%82.60.0%25.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker18.1%.284.409.522.2380.0%18.4%16.9%22.0%0.0%95.00.0%52.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter17.2%.238.381.405.1670.0%20.7%7.5%9.5%0.0%91.00.0%33.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup13.8%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%85.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider4.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%85.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-06-28 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Jun 2026