Clutch Algorithm
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BAL@CIN
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Game 1 of 15 Fri · Jul 3, 11:10 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · BAL vs Brady Singer · CIN vs Trevor Rogers

#1Eugenio Suárez
Eugenio SuárezRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
CIN· DHvs BAL LHP Rogers
🔥 Elite
Test
80
Ceil
83
Likely
70
kHR
85
Zone
52
Form
100%
EV
93.5
Brl%
14.9%
ISO
.298
xwOBA
.399
xwOBAc
.491
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
6.5%
SwtSp%
34.5%
HH%
52.3%
elite Barrel 15%, elite ISO .298, 93.5 EV+424MODEL
#2Spencer Steer
Spencer SteerRHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
CIN· 1Bvs BAL LHP Rogers
🟢 Strong
Test
66
Ceil
71
Likely
61
kHR
74
Zone
48
Form
81%
EV
89.3
Brl%
13.4%
ISO
.179
xwOBA
.339
xwOBAc
.468
SwStr%
11.9%
PullBrl
6.5%
SwtSp%
35.8%
HH%
37.7%
strong Barrel 13%, pull-side power, off-platoon but elite power+493MODEL
#3Noelvi Marte
Noelvi MarteRHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
CIN· RFvs BAL LHP Rogers
🟡 Viable
Test
64
Ceil
56
Likely
53
kHR
70
Zone
41
Form
86%
EV
91.5
Brl%
11.4%
ISO
.222
xwOBA
.377
xwOBAc
.560
SwStr%
10.2%
PullBrl
5.9%
SwtSp%
33.6%
HH%
46.3%
strong Barrel 11%, power ISO .222 (matchup soft)+564MODEL
#4Pete Alonso
Pete AlonsoRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
BAL· 1Bvs CIN RHP Singer
🟡 Viable
Test
62
Ceil
55
Likely
53
kHR
71
Zone
42
Form
93%
EV
94.1
Brl%
12.6%
ISO
.219
xwOBA
.376
xwOBAc
.526
SwStr%
12.2%
PullBrl
4.7%
SwtSp%
33.2%
HH%
53.8%
strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .219 (matchup soft)+546MODEL
#5Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La CruzSHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
CIN· SSvs BAL LHP Rogers
🟡 Viable
Test
62
Ceil
64
Likely
56
kHR
74
Zone
38
Form
90%
EV
94.4
Brl%
15.1%
ISO
.213
xwOBA
.359
xwOBAc
.514
SwStr%
12.1%
PullBrl
4.7%
SwtSp%
35.9%
HH%
52.7%
elite Barrel 15%, power ISO .213 (matchup soft)+482MODEL
#6Sal Stewart
Sal StewartRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
CIN· 3Bvs BAL LHP Rogers
🟡 Viable
Test
62
Ceil
57
Likely
55
kHR
74
Zone
41
Form
94%
EV
91.0
Brl%
15.4%
ISO
.214
xwOBA
.358
xwOBAc
.496
SwStr%
13.3%
PullBrl
5.0%
SwtSp%
35.7%
HH%
41.4%
elite Barrel 15%, power ISO .214 (matchup soft)+486MODEL
#7Colton Cowser
Colton CowserLHB#7 · Secondary Power
BAL· CFvs CIN RHP Singer
🟠 Longshot
Test
54
Ceil
46
Likely
47
kHR
62
Zone
42
Form
77%
EV
90.7
Brl%
9.4%
ISO
.189
xwOBA
.332
xwOBAc
.389
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.9%
SwtSp%
32.8%
HH%
44.2%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+720MODEL
#8JJ Bleday
JJ BledayLHB#6 · Secondary Power
CIN· LFvs BAL LHP Rogers
🟠 Longshot
Test
54
Ceil
53
Likely
48
kHR
62
Zone
36
Form
75%
EV
90.8
Brl%
9.6%
ISO
.192
xwOBA
.350
xwOBAc
.414
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
4.0%
SwtSp%
32.9%
HH%
44.4%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+713MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — BAL
vs Brady Singer (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

BALBAL
vs Brady Singer (CIN)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — CIN
vs Trevor Rogers (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

CINCIN
vs Trevor Rogers (BAL)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
BAL vs Brady Singer
9 hitters · primary stack for the away offense
BAL

BAL hitters

vsBrady Singer(CINCIN)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
RHBBALvs CIN RHP Singer#4 · Premium RBI/Power+546M62.055.242.00093%71.11,482234.219.376.52612.2%4.7%94.112.6%33.2%31.1%53.8%14.053
LHBBALvs CIN RHP Singer#7 · Secondary Power+720M54.045.742.00077%61.81,404199.189.332.38911.3%3.9%90.79.4%32.8%31.8%44.2%15.447
LHBBALvs CIN RHP Singer#5 · Premium RBI/Power+883M46.042.740.00062%55.546079.165.294.33011.3%3.4%90.18.2%32.5%31.3%42.4%15.043
LHBBALvs CIN RHP Singer#6 · Secondary Power+863M46.046.641.00064%56.053474.173.398.42711.3%3.5%90.38.6%32.6%31.5%43.0%15.145
LHBBALvs CIN RHP Singer#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1109M36.041.938.00070%48.71,556270.189.307.43111.5%3.4%89.57.7%29.2%26.6%43.9%12.240
SHBBALvs CIN RHP Singer#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1175M32.043.039.00052%45.91,424265.146.340.40311.3%3.0%89.77.3%32.2%30.9%41.0%14.640
RHBBALvs CIN RHP Singer#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1248M32.041.238.00033%43.41,560243.101.343.4416.7%1.6%89.35.3%36.2%27.6%39.4%14.638
RHBBALvs CIN RHP Singer#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1175M32.043.839.00055%46.31,037144.153.354.42111.3%3.1%89.87.6%32.3%31.1%41.5%14.840
LHBBALvs CIN RHP Singer#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M32.041.938.00050%45.12,531446.133.339.42911.3%2.7%89.36.7%32.0%30.7%40.0%14.439
CIN vs Trevor Rogers
9 hitters · primary stack for the home offense
CIN

CIN hitters

vsTrevor Rogers(BALBAL)LHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
RHBCINvs BAL LHP Rogers#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M80.083.052.000100%84.62,562392.298.399.49111.3%6.5%93.514.9%34.5%34.0%52.3%17.470
RHBCINvs BAL LHP Rogers#3 · Premium RBI/Power+493M66.071.048.00081%73.51,252210.179.339.46811.9%6.5%89.313.4%35.8%30.2%37.7%16.261
RHBCINvs BAL LHP Rogers#5 · Premium RBI/Power+564M64.056.041.00086%70.41,404280.222.377.56010.2%5.9%91.511.4%33.6%27.6%46.3%12.053
SHBCINvs BAL LHP Rogers#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+482M62.063.638.00090%74.21,162182.213.359.51412.1%4.7%94.415.1%35.9%31.0%52.7%11.356
RHBCINvs BAL LHP Rogers#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+486M62.057.441.00094%73.91,459246.214.358.49613.3%5.0%91.015.4%35.7%27.7%41.4%14.455
LHBCINvs BAL LHP Rogers#6 · Secondary Power+713M54.052.536.00075%62.11,342216.192.350.41411.3%4.0%90.89.6%32.9%31.8%44.4%15.548
RHBCINvs BAL LHP Rogers#7 · Secondary Power+713M54.053.036.00073%62.01,334183.190.365.44211.3%3.9%90.89.5%32.9%31.8%44.2%15.448
LHBCINvs BAL LHP Rogers#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M32.047.331.00043%44.12,672464.117.366.45011.3%2.4%88.95.9%31.8%30.3%38.8%14.139
SHBCINvs BAL LHP Rogers#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1900M0.00.0.0000%0.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00
BAL Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
BAL hitters vsBrady Singer(CIN)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Gunnar HendersonGunnar HendersonLHB
.238.449.2119%47%20%
.245.424.1797%48%19%
.209.395.1867%42%27%
.195.371.1767%42%33%
.186.341.1557%39%35%
.203.384.1817%41%29%
.203.364.1617%38%30%
.183.316.1336%35%35%
#2Adley RutschmanAdley RutschmanSHB
.265.484.2199%46%13%
.272.457.1857%47%13%
.232.426.1948%41%18%
.207.381.1748%39%23%
.197.349.1527%37%24%
.214.394.1808%38%20%
.237.412.1758%40%19%
.214.358.1447%37%22%
#3Taylor WardTaylor WardRHB
.263.379.1166%43%17%
.270.358.0885%43%16%
.230.333.1035%37%22%
.189.274.0854%33%31%
.179.252.0734%31%33%
.196.284.0885%32%27%
.244.336.0925%38%22%
.221.292.0715%35%26%
#4Pete AlonsoPete AlonsoRHB
.259.503.24414%58%24%
.267.475.20811%59%22%
.227.443.21612%51%32%
.186.364.17810%45%44%
.177.334.1579%42%47%
.193.377.18411%44%39%
.241.446.20513%52%32%
.218.388.17011%48%37%
#5Samuel BasalloSamuel BasalloLHB
.269.486.21713%49%26%
.276.459.18310%50%24%
.236.427.19111%43%35%
.220.402.18211%43%41%
.210.369.15910%41%44%
.228.416.18811%42%37%
.229.393.16410%40%38%
.207.342.1359%37%44%
#6Dylan BeaversDylan BeaversLHB
.242.382.1407%42%21%
.248.361.1135%43%19%
.212.336.1246%37%28%
.198.316.1186%37%34%
.188.290.1025%35%36%
.205.327.1226%36%30%
.205.309.1046%34%31%
.186.269.0835%32%36%
#7Colton CowserColton CowserLHB
.238.403.16513%38%29%
.245.380.13510%39%27%
.209.354.14511%33%39%
.195.333.13811%33%47%
.186.305.11910%31%50%
.203.345.14212%33%42%
.203.326.12311%31%43%
.183.283.10010%28%50%
#8Blaze AlexanderBlaze AlexanderRHB
.321.470.1498%51%22%
.330.444.1146%52%21%
.282.413.1317%45%30%
.231.340.1096%39%42%
.220.312.0925%37%45%
.239.352.1136%39%37%
.299.416.1177%46%31%
.271.362.0916%42%36%
#9Jackson HollidayJackson HollidayLHB
.206.413.20714%43%28%
.212.390.17811%44%27%
.180.363.18312%38%38%
.169.341.17212%38%46%
.161.313.15211%36%49%
.175.353.17813%37%41%
.175.334.15912%35%42%
.158.290.13210%32%49%
CIN Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
CIN hitters vsTrevor Rogers(BAL)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Elly De La CruzElly De La CruzSHB
.286.524.23817%57%25%
.294.495.20113%58%23%
.250.461.21114%50%34%
.223.412.18914%47%42%
.212.378.16612%45%45%
.231.427.19614%46%38%
.256.446.19015%49%35%
.231.388.15713%45%41%
#2Sal StewartSal StewartRHB
.270.509.23917%45%24%
.278.480.20213%46%23%
.236.447.21115%39%32%
.221.420.19915%39%39%
.210.386.17613%37%42%
.229.435.20615%38%35%
.230.412.18214%36%36%
.208.358.15012%33%41%
#3Spencer SteerSpencer SteerRHB
.247.447.20015%41%22%
.254.422.16811%42%21%
.216.393.17713%36%30%
.202.369.16713%36%36%
.192.339.14711%34%39%
.210.383.17313%35%33%
.210.362.15212%33%33%
.190.315.12511%30%39%
#4Eugenio SuárezEugenio SuárezRHB
.217.400.1839%30%29%
.224.377.1537%31%28%
.190.351.1617%27%40%
.178.330.1527%27%48%
.170.303.1337%25%51%
.185.342.1578%26%43%
.185.323.1387%25%44%
.167.281.1146%23%51%
#5Noelvi MarteNoelvi MarteRHB
.210.411.2019%37%22%
.216.389.1737%37%21%
.184.362.1788%32%30%
.172.340.1688%32%36%
.164.312.1487%30%38%
.179.352.1738%31%32%
.179.333.1547%30%33%
.162.290.1286%27%38%
#6JJ BledayJJ BledayLHB
.249.527.27811%48%22%
.256.498.2428%49%21%
.218.464.2469%42%30%
.179.382.2038%37%41%
.170.350.1807%35%44%
.185.395.2108%36%37%
.232.467.23510%42%30%
.210.406.1969%39%35%
#7Tyler StephensonTyler StephensonRHB
.242.397.15512%51%22%
.248.375.1279%52%21%
.212.350.13811%45%30%
.198.328.13011%45%36%
.188.301.1139%43%38%
.205.340.13511%44%32%
.205.322.11710%42%33%
.186.280.0949%38%38%
#8TJ FriedlTJ FriedlLHB
.190.293.1034%31%23%
.195.276.0813%32%21%
.167.257.0903%28%31%
.137.212.0753%24%42%
.130.194.0642%23%45%
.142.219.0773%24%37%
.177.259.0823%28%31%
.160.225.0653%26%36%
#9Edwin ArroyoEdwin ArroyoSHB
.270.321.0510%23%20%
.278.303.0250%24%19%
.236.282.0460%20%28%
.211.252.0410%19%35%
.200.232.0320%18%37%
.218.261.0430%19%31%
.242.273.0310%20%29%
.218.238.0200%18%34%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Eugenio Suárez
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M52.000230N/A8N/A.207.278.370.298.2878.3%93.5
Spencer Steer
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+493M48.000321N/A13N/A.235.313.414.179.3209.3%89.3
Noelvi Marte
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+564M41.000113N/A5N/A.200.257.381.222.2797.1%91.5
Pete Alonso
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+546M42.000380N/A19N/A.247.339.466.219.34911.8%94.1
Elly De La Cruz
SHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+482M38.000298N/A13N/A.272.339.485.213.3578.7%94.4
Sal Stewart
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+486M41.000374N/A17N/A.257.342.471.214.35111.5%91.0
Colton Cowser
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+720M42.000214N/A8N/A.227.319.373.189.31011.7%90.7
JJ Bleday
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+713M36.000246N/A13N/A.237.347.488.192.36113.8%90.8
Tyler Stephenson
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+713M36.000233N/A6N/A.230.318.368.190.30711.6%90.8
Samuel Basallo
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+883M40.000267N/A12N/A.256.318.450.165.3338.6%90.1
Dylan Beavers
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+863M41.000130N/A2N/A.230.318.354.173.30211.5%90.3
Gunnar Henderson
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1109M38.000399N/A16N/A.227.298.416.189.3128.0%89.5
Adley Rutschman
SHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1175M39.000240N/A8N/A.252.325.448.146.33410.0%89.7
Taylor Ward
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1248M38.000400N/A5N/A.250.378.351.101.33416.5%89.3
Blaze Alexander
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1175M39.000215N/A3N/A.306.360.435.153.3496.5%89.8
Jackson Holliday
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M38.000118N/A5N/A.196.288.382.133.29511.9%89.3
TJ Friedl
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M31.000190N/A3N/A.181.259.271.117.2447.4%88.9
Edwin Arroyo
SHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1900M.00082N/AN/AN/A.257.309.297.000.2763.7%0.0
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Trevor Rogers
Trevor Rogers
BAL · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season84.3359.249.331.0821.3290.968.1%23.2%18.1%8.6%23.2%6.946.8%38.6%25.1%
vs LHB23.090.169.250.205.0360.9110.397.8%23.2%25.6%23.2%9.006.8%38.6%25.1%
vs RHB61.0269.275.335.372.0971.4881.188.2%23.2%15.6%23.2%6.206.8%38.6%25.1%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3030.0117.178.206.0280.9710.308.5%23.2%20.5%23.2%7.206.8%38.6%25.1%
L1518.369.129.129.0000.8200.0010.1%23.2%24.6%23.2%8.356.8%38.6%25.1%
Brady Singer
Brady Singer
CIN · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season82.3374.287.464.1771.54202.198.0%24.3%19.0%14.2%24.3%7.7611.3%41.2%28.8%
vs LHB50.3233.292.397.486.1941.59142.507.3%24.3%22.3%24.3%9.3011.3%41.2%28.8%
vs RHB31.0141.266.354.406.1401.5261.749.2%24.3%13.5%24.3%5.5211.3%41.2%28.8%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3027.3116.225.314.0891.2530.999.5%24.3%25.0%24.3%9.5511.3%41.2%28.8%
L1516.370.226.371.1451.2931.6510.0%24.3%27.1%24.3%10.4711.3%41.2%28.8%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Trevor Rogers
Trevor Rogers
BAL · LHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball43.9%.244.354.462.2180.0%24.0%17.8%14.0%0.0%93.40.0%42.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup22.3%.296.348.395.0990.0%24.8%12.0%10.8%0.0%87.30.0%42.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper11.7%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%78.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker11.3%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%93.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter10.7%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%83.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Brady Singer
Brady Singer
CIN · RHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Sinker47.0%.299.399.514.2150.0%14.4%16.9%18.2%0.0%91.20.0%43.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider30.8%.250.328.425.1750.0%34.1%22.1%18.4%0.0%82.40.0%42.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper11.6%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%81.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter7.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam3.4%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%90.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-07-03 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Jul 2026