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TB@COL
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COL
Game 1 of 15 Wed · Aug 5, 12:40 AM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · TB vs Gabriel Hughes · COL vs Freddy Peralta

#1Mickey Moniak
Mickey MoniakLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
COL· LFvs TB RHP Peralta
🔥 Elite
Test
82
Ceil
88
Likely
69
kHR
82
Zone
46
Form
94%
EV
92.2
Brl%
12.4%
ISO
.248
xwOBA
.383
xwOBAc
.529
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
5.3%
SwtSp%
33.7%
HH%
48.6%
strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .248, pull-side power+424MODEL
#2Hunter Goodman
Hunter GoodmanRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
COL· Cvs TB RHP Peralta
🟢 Strong
Test
78
Ceil
86
Likely
68
kHR
85
Zone
43
Form
100%
EV
90.8
Brl%
16.9%
ISO
.297
xwOBA
.328
xwOBAc
.463
SwStr%
19.6%
PullBrl
8.2%
SwtSp%
34.7%
HH%
46.1%
elite Barrel 17%, elite ISO .297, pull-side power+424MODEL
#3Junior Caminero
Junior CamineroRHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
TB· 3Bvs COL RHP Hughes
🟢 Strong
Test
70
Ceil
93
Likely
67
kHR
77
Zone
37
Form
100%
EV
93.1
Brl%
13.9%
ISO
.274
xwOBA
.378
xwOBAc
.540
SwStr%
9.8%
PullBrl
6.5%
SwtSp%
28.4%
HH%
51.0%
strong Barrel 14%, elite ISO .274, 93.1 EV+433MODEL
#4Cole Carrigg
Cole CarriggSHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
COL· CFvs TB RHP Peralta
🟠 Longshot
Test
60
Ceil
67
Likely
54
kHR
67
Zone
36
Form
71%
EV
91.5
Brl%
10.9%
ISO
.218
xwOBA
.430
xwOBAc
.579
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
4.6%
SwtSp%
33.3%
HH%
46.4%
strong Barrel 11%, power ISO .218 (matchup soft)+620MODEL
#5Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan ArandaLHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
TB· 1Bvs COL RHP Hughes
🟠 Longshot
Test
52
Ceil
86
Likely
59
kHR
62
Zone
39
Form
63%
EV
91.1
Brl%
10.3%
ISO
.151
xwOBA
.358
xwOBAc
.495
SwStr%
10.0%
PullBrl
2.9%
SwtSp%
38.3%
HH%
46.0%
strong Barrel 10%, park/wind boost (matchup soft)+720MODEL
#6Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
TB· RFvs COL RHP Hughes
🟠 Longshot
Test
52
Ceil
88
Likely
58
kHR
62
Zone
30
Form
47%
EV
92.2
Brl%
10.5%
ISO
.115
xwOBA
.354
xwOBAc
.505
SwStr%
13.3%
PullBrl
3.4%
SwtSp%
31.4%
HH%
52.9%
strong Barrel 10%, park/wind boost (matchup soft)+713MODEL
#7Willi Castro
Willi CastroSHB#7 · Secondary Power
COL· 2Bvs TB RHP Peralta
🟠 Longshot
Test
50
Ceil
53
Likely
43
kHR
57
Zone
23
Form
60%
EV
87.7
Brl%
8.1%
ISO
.156
xwOBA
.302
xwOBAc
.418
SwStr%
16.9%
PullBrl
3.6%
SwtSp%
31.8%
HH%
39.8%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+834MODEL
#8Cedric Mullins
Cedric MullinsLHB#7 · Secondary Power
TB· CFvs COL RHP Hughes
🟠 Longshot
Test
36
Ceil
70
Likely
44
kHR
44
Zone
22
Form
55%
EV
87.9
Brl%
3.9%
ISO
.156
xwOBA
.251
xwOBAc
.328
SwStr%
11.9%
PullBrl
1.8%
SwtSp%
26.1%
HH%
30.6%
low Barrel, off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+1248MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — TB
vs Gabriel Hughes (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

TBTB
vs Gabriel Hughes (COL)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — COL
vs Freddy Peralta (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

COLCOL
vs Freddy Peralta (TB)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
TB + COL · Combined Hitter Matrix
Both lineups in one table · sticky HITTER + TEAM columns · filter to one side with the chips
TBvsCOL

TB + COL hitters

combined matrix · click any header to sort · click a row for detail
HitterTeamHandMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
TB Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
TB hitters vsGabriel Hughes(COL)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Yandy DíazYandy DíazRHB
.316.497.1818%51%12%
.325.469.1446%52%11%
.277.437.1607%45%16%
.227.360.1336%39%23%
.216.330.1145%37%24%
.235.372.1376%38%20%
.294.440.1467%45%17%
.266.383.1176%42%19%
#2Jonathan ArandaJonathan ArandaLHB
.294.464.17011%49%18%
.302.439.1379%50%17%
.258.408.15010%43%25%
.241.384.14310%43%30%
.229.352.1239%41%32%
.250.397.14710%42%27%
.250.376.12610%40%27%
.226.327.1018%37%32%
#3Junior CamineroJunior CamineroRHB
.296.588.29215%54%20%
.305.555.25012%55%18%
.259.517.25813%48%26%
.213.425.21211%42%36%
.202.390.18810%39%39%
.221.440.21911%41%33%
.276.520.24414%48%27%
.249.453.20412%45%31%
#4Liam HicksLiam HicksLHB
.296.467.1714%32%9%
.305.441.1363%33%9%
.259.410.1514%28%13%
.243.386.1434%28%15%
.231.354.1233%26%16%
.252.399.1474%27%14%
.252.378.1263%26%14%
.228.328.1003%24%16%
#5Victor Mesa Jr.Victor Mesa Jr.LHB
.222.457.23511%43%22%
.228.431.2039%44%20%
.194.402.20810%38%29%
.182.378.19610%38%35%
.173.346.1738%36%38%
.188.391.20310%37%32%
.188.370.1829%35%32%
.170.321.1518%32%38%
#6Chandler SimpsonChandler SimpsonLHB
.311.384.0730%16%9%
.320.363.0430%16%9%
.272.338.0660%14%12%
.255.318.0630%14%15%
.242.292.0500%13%16%
.264.329.0650%13%13%
.264.311.0470%13%14%
.239.271.0320%12%16%
#7Cedric MullinsCedric MullinsLHB
.211.383.1724%33%21%
.217.362.1453%33%19%
.185.337.1524%29%28%
.173.317.1444%29%33%
.165.291.1263%27%36%
.179.328.1494%28%30%
.179.310.1314%27%30%
.162.270.1083%25%36%
#8Richie PalaciosRichie PalaciosLHB
.236.356.1204%28%19%
.243.337.0943%29%18%
.207.314.1074%25%26%
.194.295.1014%25%31%
.184.270.0863%24%33%
.201.305.1044%24%28%
.201.288.0874%23%28%
.182.251.0693%21%33%
#9Taylor WallsTaylor WallsSHB
.223.303.0803%24%20%
.229.287.0582%24%19%
.195.267.0723%21%27%
.174.239.0652%20%34%
.165.219.0542%19%36%
.180.247.0672%19%30%
.199.259.0603%20%28%
.180.225.0452%19%33%
COL Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
COL hitters vsFreddy Peralta(TB)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Jake McCarthyJake McCarthyLHB
.303.530.2276%27%20%
.312.501.1894%27%19%
.266.466.2005%24%27%
.249.438.1895%23%32%
.237.402.1654%22%34%
.258.454.1965%23%29%
.258.429.1715%22%29%
.233.373.1404%20%34%
#2Cole CarriggCole CarriggSHB
.320.567.2476%34%21%
.329.536.2075%35%20%
.281.499.2185%30%29%
.250.446.1965%28%36%
.238.410.1724%27%39%
.259.462.2035%28%33%
.287.483.1965%29%30%
.259.420.1615%27%35%
#3Mickey MoniakMickey MoniakLHB
.287.591.30412%45%25%
.295.558.2639%46%23%
.251.520.26910%40%33%
.235.488.25310%40%40%
.224.448.2249%37%43%
.244.505.26110%39%36%
.244.478.23410%37%37%
.220.416.1969%34%43%
#4Hunter GoodmanHunter GoodmanRHB
.271.604.33319%50%31%
.279.570.29114%51%29%
.237.531.29416%44%42%
.195.437.24214%38%57%
.185.401.21613%36%61%
.202.453.25114%37%51%
.252.535.28317%44%42%
.228.465.23715%41%49%
#5TJ RumfieldTJ RumfieldLHB
.311.503.1926%30%17%
.320.475.1554%30%16%
.272.443.1715%26%24%
.255.416.1615%26%28%
.242.382.1404%25%30%
.264.431.1675%25%25%
.264.407.1435%24%26%
.239.354.1154%22%30%
#6Kyle KarrosKyle KarrosRHB
.281.465.1849%46%21%
.289.440.1517%47%20%
.247.409.1628%41%28%
.202.337.1357%36%39%
.192.309.1176%34%41%
.210.349.1397%35%35%
.262.412.1508%41%28%
.237.359.1227%38%33%
#7Willi CastroWilli CastroSHB
.276.448.1729%43%26%
.284.423.1397%44%25%
.242.394.1528%38%35%
.216.353.1377%36%45%
.205.324.1197%34%48%
.224.365.1418%35%40%
.247.382.1358%37%37%
.224.332.1087%34%43%
#8Jordan BeckJordan BeckRHB
.192.329.1374%28%25%
.198.311.1133%29%23%
.168.290.1223%25%34%
.138.239.1013%22%46%
.131.219.0882%21%49%
.143.247.1043%21%41%
.179.292.1133%25%34%
.162.254.0923%23%39%
#9Ezequiel TovarEzequiel TovarRHB
.203.339.1367%36%25%
.208.320.1125%37%24%
.178.298.1206%32%34%
.146.246.1005%28%47%
.138.225.0875%26%50%
.151.254.1035%27%42%
.189.300.1116%32%34%
.171.261.0906%29%40%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Mickey Moniak
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M46.000278N/A17N/A.273.317.547.248.3655.4%92.2
Hunter Goodman
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M43.000426N/A33N/A.258.329.559.297.3758.7%90.8
Junior Caminero
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+433M37.000483N/A30N/A.282.373.544.274.38812.4%93.1
Cole Carrigg
SHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+620M36.000168N/A5N/A.305.389.525.218.38911.3%91.5
Jonathan Aranda
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+720M39.000469N/A14N/A.280.371.430.151.35211.5%91.1
Victor Mesa Jr.
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+713M30.000140N/A8N/A.211.295.423.115.31310.7%92.2
Willi Castro
SHB#7 · Secondary Power+834M23.000373N/A12N/A.263.335.415.156.3318.6%87.7
Cedric Mullins
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+1248M22.000369N/A13N/A.201.276.355.156.2807.9%87.9
Jake McCarthy
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1229M27.000371N/A11N/A.289.330.491.202.3524.9%84.9
Yandy Díaz
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1158M34.000469N/A15N/A.301.375.460.158.3649.0%90.8
Richie Palacios
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M28.000260N/A4N/A.225.319.330.119.29511.2%89.0
Taylor Walls
SHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M27.000305N/AN/AN/A.212.302.281.099.26810.8%88.5
Kyle Karros
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1141M35.000364N/A9N/A.268.365.431.161.35012.4%89.8
Jordan Beck
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1141M32.00088N/A1N/A.183.227.305.158.2335.7%90.0
Liam Hicks
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1329M28.000409N/A14N/A.282.363.432.150.3499.8%85.2
Chandler Simpson
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1499M29.000413N/AN/AN/A.296.328.356.060.3024.8%83.9
TJ Rumfield
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1287M33.000441N/A13N/A.296.376.466.169.37010.0%83.6
Ezequiel Tovar
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M21.000378N/A8N/A.193.239.314.128.2435.6%87.4
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Freddy Peralta
Freddy Peralta
TB · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season116.7526.268.383.1151.50181.399.1%26.8%21.9%15.8%26.8%8.875.2%38.2%26.0%
vs LHB73.0328.267.347.397.1301.48131.608.5%26.8%22.6%26.8%9.125.2%38.2%26.0%
vs RHB40.3184.244.309.317.0731.4940.8910.9%26.8%21.2%26.8%8.705.2%38.2%26.0%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3021.3104.323.484.1611.8852.119.6%26.8%22.1%26.8%9.705.2%38.2%26.0%
L1512.360.375.536.1612.0332.196.7%26.8%18.3%26.8%8.035.2%38.2%26.0%
Gabriel Hughes
Gabriel Hughes
COL · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season24.3102.247.280.0331.2810.377.8%18.1%22.5%18.1%8.512.9%27.1%31.4%
vs LHB14.059.250.250.250.0001.2100.005.1%18.1%16.9%18.1%6.432.9%27.1%31.4%
vs RHB10.040.222.250.222.0001.2000.0010.0%18.1%27.5%18.1%9.902.9%27.1%31.4%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3024.3102.247.280.0331.2810.377.8%18.1%22.5%18.1%8.512.9%27.1%31.4%
L1513.057.269.327.0581.3810.697.0%18.1%17.5%18.1%6.922.9%27.1%31.4%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Freddy Peralta
Freddy Peralta
TB · RHP · 6 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball53.3%.270.358.429.1590.0%22.1%19.2%17.8%0.0%94.20.0%49.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup21.1%.280.364.449.1690.0%28.1%20.2%17.4%0.0%87.30.0%21.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball12.8%.225.313.475.2500.0%36.2%33.3%20.6%0.0%79.40.0%36.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper5.6%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%81.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider5.5%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%83.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slow Curve1.8%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%75.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Gabriel Hughes
Gabriel Hughes
COL · RHP · 6 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam56.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%92.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider10.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup9.5%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper9.1%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%85.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball8.4%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%78.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker5.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%92.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-08-04 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Aug 2026