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MIN
MIN@KC
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KC
Game 1 of 15 Tue · Aug 4, 11:40 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · MIN vs Randy Dobnak · KC vs Joe Ryan

#1Kody Clemens
Kody ClemensLHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
MIN· 2Bvs KC RHP Dobnak
🟢 Strong
Test
80
Ceil
65
Likely
60
kHR
81
Zone
44
Form
90%
EV
92.6
Brl%
12.0%
ISO
.241
xwOBA
.327
xwOBAc
.471
SwStr%
12.6%
PullBrl
5.5%
SwtSp%
35.0%
HH%
46.2%
strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .241, pull-side power+424MODEL
#2Jac Caglianone
Jac CaglianoneLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
KC· 1Bvs MIN RHP Ryan
🟡 Viable
Test
62
Ceil
50
Likely
52
kHR
73
Zone
41
Form
89%
EV
92.9
Brl%
14.6%
ISO
.205
xwOBA
.350
xwOBAc
.512
SwStr%
15.5%
PullBrl
6.5%
SwtSp%
33.7%
HH%
55.2%
elite Barrel 15%, power ISO .205 (matchup soft)+501MODEL
#3Bobby Witt Jr.
Bobby Witt Jr.RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
KC· SSvs MIN RHP Ryan
🟠 Longshot
Test
58
Ceil
49
Likely
51
kHR
68
Zone
46
Form
70%
EV
92.9
Brl%
12.2%
ISO
.171
xwOBA
.386
xwOBAc
.565
SwStr%
11.9%
PullBrl
3.4%
SwtSp%
38.1%
HH%
52.2%
strong Barrel 12% (matchup soft)+604MODEL
#4Carter Jensen
Carter JensenLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
KC· Cvs MIN RHP Ryan
🟠 Longshot
Test
54
Ceil
40
Likely
44
kHR
62
Zone
36
Form
71%
EV
90.5
Brl%
9.5%
ISO
.192
xwOBA
.282
xwOBAc
.383
SwStr%
13.4%
PullBrl
3.8%
SwtSp%
30.4%
HH%
42.7%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+720MODEL
#5Josh Bell
Josh BellSHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
MIN· DHvs KC RHP Dobnak
🟠 Longshot
Test
46
Ceil
41
Likely
41
kHR
57
Zone
32
Form
62%
EV
89.9
Brl%
9.6%
ISO
.164
xwOBA
.318
xwOBAc
.458
SwStr%
12.5%
PullBrl
3.9%
SwtSp%
33.1%
HH%
42.7%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+834MODEL
#6Salvador Perez
Salvador PerezRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
KC· DHvs MIN RHP Ryan
🟠 Longshot
Test
46
Ceil
39
Likely
42
kHR
58
Zone
38
Form
68%
EV
89.1
Brl%
10.3%
ISO
.162
xwOBA
.300
xwOBAc
.437
SwStr%
14.5%
PullBrl
4.1%
SwtSp%
34.9%
HH%
43.0%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+816MODEL
#7Trevor Larnach
Trevor LarnachLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
MIN· LFvs KC RHP Dobnak
🔴 Fade
Test
32
Ceil
40
Likely
37
kHR
46
Zone
32
Form
58%
EV
89.8
Brl%
7.7%
ISO
.154
xwOBA
.354
xwOBAc
.452
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.1%
SwtSp%
32.3%
HH%
41.5%
off-platoon+1175MODEL
#8Ryan Jeffers
Ryan JeffersRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
MIN· Cvs KC RHP Dobnak
🔴 Fade
Test
32
Ceil
39
Likely
36
kHR
45
Zone
30
Form
44%
EV
89.3
Brl%
6.6%
ISO
.131
xwOBA
.367
xwOBAc
.465
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
2.7%
SwtSp%
32.0%
HH%
39.8%
off-platoon+1210MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — MIN
vs Randy Dobnak (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

MINMIN
vs Randy Dobnak (KC)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — KC
vs Joe Ryan (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

KCKC
vs Joe Ryan (MIN)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
MIN + KC · Combined Hitter Matrix
Both lineups in one table · sticky HITTER + TEAM columns · filter to one side with the chips
MINvsKC

MIN + KC hitters

combined matrix · click any header to sort · click a row for detail
HitterTeamHandMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
MIN Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
MIN hitters vsRandy Dobnak(KC)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Trevor LarnachTrevor LarnachLHB
.300.496.1969%38%22%
.309.468.1597%39%21%
.263.436.1738%34%30%
.246.410.1648%33%36%
.234.376.1427%32%38%
.255.424.1698%33%32%
.255.401.1467%31%33%
.231.349.1187%29%38%
#2Ryan JeffersRyan JeffersRHB
.306.568.26213%44%15%
.314.537.22310%45%14%
.268.500.23211%39%20%
.220.411.19110%34%27%
.209.377.1689%32%29%
.228.426.19810%33%25%
.284.503.21912%39%20%
.257.438.18110%36%23%
#3Josh BellJosh BellSHB
.256.441.18511%46%21%
.264.416.1528%47%20%
.224.388.1649%41%28%
.200.347.1479%38%36%
.190.318.1288%36%38%
.207.359.1529%38%32%
.229.375.1469%39%29%
.207.326.1198%36%34%
#4Kody ClemensKody ClemensLHB
.250.517.26713%50%22%
.257.489.23210%51%20%
.219.455.23611%44%29%
.205.428.22311%44%35%
.195.392.19710%41%38%
.212.443.23112%43%31%
.213.419.20611%40%32%
.192.364.17210%37%37%
#5Royce LewisRoyce LewisRHB
.232.438.20614%47%29%
.239.414.17511%48%28%
.203.386.18312%41%40%
.167.317.15011%36%54%
.159.291.1329%34%58%
.173.329.15611%35%49%
.216.388.17213%42%40%
.195.338.14311%39%46%
#6Brooks LeeBrooks LeeSHB
.256.456.2004%34%18%
.264.430.1663%35%17%
.224.401.1773%30%24%
.200.359.1593%29%30%
.190.329.1393%27%32%
.207.371.1643%28%27%
.229.388.1594%29%25%
.207.338.1313%27%29%
#7Austin MartinAustin MartinRHB
.250.341.0912%31%17%
.257.322.0652%32%16%
.219.300.0812%28%23%
.180.247.0672%24%31%
.171.227.0562%23%33%
.186.256.0702%23%28%
.233.302.0692%28%23%
.210.263.0532%26%27%
#8Luke KeaschallLuke KeaschallRHB
.276.392.1164%31%15%
.284.370.0863%32%14%
.242.345.1033%27%20%
.198.284.0863%24%27%
.189.260.0713%23%29%
.206.294.0883%23%24%
.257.347.0903%28%20%
.232.302.0703%26%23%
#9Ryan KreidlerRyan KreidlerRHB
.252.438.18610%40%26%
.259.414.1558%41%24%
.221.386.1658%35%35%
.181.317.1367%31%48%
.172.291.1197%29%51%
.188.329.1417%30%43%
.235.388.1539%36%35%
.212.338.1268%33%41%
KC Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
KC hitters vsJoe Ryan(MIN)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Carter JensenCarter JensenLHB
.244.458.21411%46%25%
.251.432.1818%47%24%
.213.403.1909%41%34%
.200.378.1789%40%41%
.190.347.1578%38%44%
.207.392.1859%40%37%
.207.371.1649%37%37%
.187.322.1358%35%44%
#2Bobby Witt Jr.Bobby Witt Jr.RHB
.293.486.19313%56%21%
.301.459.15810%57%20%
.257.427.17012%50%29%
.210.352.14210%43%39%
.200.323.1239%41%42%
.218.364.14610%42%35%
.273.431.15812%50%29%
.247.374.12711%46%33%
#3Jac CaglianoneJac CaglianoneLHB
.264.492.22816%60%25%
.271.465.19412%61%24%
.231.433.20214%52%34%
.216.407.19114%52%41%
.206.373.16712%49%43%
.224.421.19714%51%36%
.224.399.17513%48%37%
.203.347.14412%45%43%
#4Salvador PerezSalvador PerezRHB
.226.407.18111%46%22%
.232.385.1539%47%21%
.198.358.16010%41%29%
.162.295.1339%36%40%
.154.271.1178%34%43%
.168.305.1379%35%36%
.210.361.15110%41%30%
.190.314.1249%38%35%
#5Michael MasseyMichael MasseyLHB
.276.450.1747%44%17%
.284.425.1415%45%16%
.242.396.1546%39%23%
.226.372.1466%39%28%
.215.342.1275%37%30%
.235.385.1506%38%25%
.235.364.1296%36%25%
.212.317.1055%33%30%
#6Nick LoftinNick LoftinRHB
.265.440.1755%32%13%
.272.415.1434%32%13%
.232.387.1554%28%18%
.190.318.1284%24%25%
.181.292.1113%23%26%
.197.330.1334%24%22%
.246.389.1435%28%18%
.223.339.1164%26%21%
#7Isaac CollinsIsaac CollinsSHB
.254.404.1506%44%19%
.261.381.1205%45%18%
.223.355.1325%39%25%
.198.318.1205%37%32%
.189.292.1034%34%34%
.206.329.1235%36%29%
.227.344.1175%37%26%
.206.299.0935%34%31%
#8John RaveJohn RaveLHB
.329.743.41428%50%25%
.338.702.36421%50%23%
.288.654.36624%44%33%
.269.614.34524%43%40%
.256.563.30721%41%43%
.279.636.35724%42%36%
.280.601.32123%40%37%
.253.523.27020%37%43%
#9Kyle IsbelKyle IsbelLHB
.256.382.1263%37%16%
.264.361.0973%38%15%
.224.336.1123%32%22%
.210.316.1063%32%27%
.200.290.0903%30%28%
.218.327.1093%32%24%
.218.309.0913%30%24%
.197.269.0723%28%28%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Kody Clemens
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M44.000395N/A19N/A.238.295.479.241.3316.1%92.6
Jac Caglianone
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+501M41.000403N/A18N/A.251.308.456.205.3316.7%92.9
Bobby Witt Jr.
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+604M46.000414N/A13N/A.279.350.450.171.3469.9%92.9
Carter Jensen
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+720M36.000415N/A15N/A.232.304.424.192.3169.4%90.5
Josh Bell
SHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+834M32.000434N/A13N/A.244.304.408.164.3127.6%89.9
Salvador Perez
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+816M38.000442N/A16N/A.215.262.377.162.2773.8%89.1
Trevor Larnach
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1175M32.000336N/A10N/A.286.373.459.154.36511.3%89.8
Ryan Jeffers
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1210M30.000207N/A10N/A.291.393.526.131.39613.5%89.3
Royce Lewis
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1175M31.000317N/A12N/A.221.300.406.151.3089.8%89.8
Ryan Kreidler
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1175M31.000188N/A5N/A.240.293.406.000.3056.4%89.8
Nick Loftin
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1175M39.000263N/A5N/A.252.335.407.149.3279.5%89.7
John Rave
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1248M36.00035N/A2N/A.313.371.688.111.4428.6%88.8
Kyle Isbel
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1267M35.000183N/A3N/A.244.298.354.098.2895.5%88.5
Brooks Lee
SHB#6 · Secondary Power+1351M27.000433N/A16N/A.244.301.422.178.3157.2%87.7
Austin Martin
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+1329M27.000306N/A2N/A.238.353.316.083.30913.7%88.1
Luke Keaschall
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1397M32.000410N/A6N/A.263.355.363.100.32310.0%84.8
Michael Massey
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1374M34.000301N/A8N/A.263.298.417.069.3095.3%87.7
Isaac Collins
SHB#7 · Secondary Power+1287M36.000371N/A6N/A.242.341.374.132.32111.6%88.4
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Joe Ryan
Joe Ryan
MIN · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season125.7523.236.340.1041.14171.225.2%25.9%26.4%12.7%25.9%9.8811.1%42.6%30.6%
vs LHB67.7285.236.301.367.1311.11121.603.5%25.9%26.3%25.9%9.9811.1%42.6%30.6%
vs RHB52.3213.222.275.298.0761.1350.867.0%25.9%28.2%25.9%10.3211.1%42.6%30.6%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3028.3123.288.466.1781.3872.224.1%25.9%20.3%25.9%7.9411.1%42.6%30.6%
L1515.373.352.648.2961.7674.112.7%25.9%13.7%25.9%5.8711.1%42.6%30.6%
Randy Dobnak
Randy Dobnak
KC · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season21.386.195.234.0391.1310.4210.5%19.0%12.8%19.0%4.644.9%43.9%17.1%
vs LHB18.069.200.250.246.0460.9410.505.8%19.0%11.6%19.0%4.004.9%43.9%17.1%
vs RHB7.737.258.354.355.0971.8311.1716.2%19.0%16.2%19.0%7.044.9%43.9%17.1%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3021.386.195.234.0391.1310.4210.5%19.0%12.8%19.0%4.644.9%43.9%17.1%
L1517.065.183.183.0000.9400.007.7%19.0%12.3%19.0%4.244.9%43.9%17.1%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Joe Ryan
Joe Ryan
MIN · RHP · 6 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball45.8%.249.340.468.2190.0%26.2%25.1%18.8%0.0%93.40.0%47.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper14.4%.217.293.377.1600.0%36.6%37.0%28.4%0.0%80.50.0%30.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Splitter12.5%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Knuckle Curve11.6%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%79.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker9.5%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%93.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider6.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Randy Dobnak
Randy Dobnak
KC · RHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Sinker39.3%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%91.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper27.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup21.1%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%85.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam9.4%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%92.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider3.1%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%84.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-08-04 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Aug 2026