Clutch Algorithm
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CHC
CHC@MIL
FIRST PITCH
MIL
Game 11 of 15 Sat · Jun 27, 11:10 PM
CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · CHC vs Kyle Harrison · MIL vs David Peterson

#1Ian Happ
Ian HappSHB#7 · Secondary Power
CHC· LFvs MIL LHP Harrison
🟢 Strong
Test
77
Ceil
88
Likely
67
kHR
80
Zone
43
Form
94%
EV
90.0
Brl%
13.5%
ISO
.230
xwOBA
.326
xwOBAc
.421
SwStr%
14.2%
PullBrl
5.9%
SwtSp%
32.4%
HH%
44.3%
strong Barrel 14%, power ISO .230, pull-side power+424MODEL
#2Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-ArmstrongLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
CHC· CFvs MIL LHP Harrison
🟡 Viable
Test
65
Ceil
70
Likely
56
kHR
71
Zone
33
Form
90%
EV
91.4
Brl%
11.3%
ISO
.232
xwOBA
.364
xwOBAc
.510
SwStr%
15.1%
PullBrl
5.5%
SwtSp%
35.7%
HH%
51.6%
strong Barrel 11%, power ISO .232 (matchup soft)+555MODEL
#3Jackson Chourio
Jackson ChourioRHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
MIL· LFvs CHC LHP Peterson
🟠 Longshot
Test
55
Ceil
51
Likely
48
kHR
63
Zone
37
Form
69%
EV
90.8
Brl%
9.7%
ISO
.193
xwOBA
.361
xwOBAc
.502
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
4.0%
SwtSp%
32.9%
HH%
44.5%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+699MODEL
#4Brice Turang
Brice TurangLHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
MIL· 2Bvs CHC LHP Peterson
🟠 Longshot
Test
55
Ceil
50
Likely
47
kHR
62
Zone
37
Form
68%
EV
91.0
Brl%
9.0%
ISO
.191
xwOBA
.349
xwOBAc
.470
SwStr%
9.4%
PullBrl
2.4%
SwtSp%
36.1%
HH%
44.6%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+713MODEL
#5Gary Sánchez
Gary SánchezRHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
MIL· DHvs CHC LHP Peterson
🟠 Longshot
Test
55
Ceil
50
Likely
47
kHR
62
Zone
36
Form
81%
EV
90.7
Brl%
9.3%
ISO
.187
xwOBA
.350
xwOBAc
.440
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.9%
SwtSp%
32.8%
HH%
44.0%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+706MODEL
#6Michael Busch
Michael BuschLHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
CHC· 1Bvs MIL LHP Harrison
🟠 Longshot
Test
51
Ceil
64
Likely
51
kHR
61
Zone
35
Form
61%
EV
88.5
Brl%
11.0%
ISO
.149
xwOBA
.351
xwOBAc
.446
SwStr%
10.5%
PullBrl
4.1%
SwtSp%
32.6%
HH%
42.2%
strong Barrel 11% (matchup soft)+728MODEL
#7Carson Kelly
Carson KellyRHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot
CHC· Cvs MIL LHP Harrison
🟠 Longshot
Test
51
Ceil
67
Likely
51
kHR
59
Zone
35
Form
73%
EV
90.5
Brl%
8.9%
ISO
.179
xwOBA
.372
xwOBAc
.463
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.7%
SwtSp%
32.7%
HH%
43.4%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+774MODEL
#8Matt Shaw
Matt ShawRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
CHC· RFvs MIL LHP Harrison
🟠 Longshot
Test
47
Ceil
65
Likely
49
kHR
56
Zone
35
Form
60%
EV
90.2
Brl%
8.4%
ISO
.168
xwOBA
.341
xwOBAc
.423
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.4%
SwtSp%
32.5%
HH%
42.6%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+853MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — CHC
vs Kyle Harrison (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

CHCCHC
vs Kyle Harrison (MIL)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — MIL
vs David Peterson (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

MILMIL
vs David Peterson (CHC)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
CHC vs Kyle Harrison
9 hitters · primary stack for the away offense
CHC

CHC hitters

vsKyle Harrison(MILMIL)LHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
SHBCHCvs MIL LHP Harrison#7 · Secondary Power+424M76.887.543.00094%80.31,330184.230.326.42114.2%5.9%90.013.5%32.4%36.2%44.3%16.267
LHBCHCvs MIL LHP Harrison#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+555M64.870.133.00090%70.71,381218.232.364.51015.1%5.5%91.411.3%35.7%33.5%51.6%19.456
LHBCHCvs MIL LHP Harrison#5 · Premium RBI/Power+728M50.863.735.00061%61.41,408215.149.351.44610.5%4.1%88.511.0%32.6%35.3%42.2%15.251
RHBCHCvs MIL LHP Harrison#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+774M50.866.835.00073%59.31,642289.179.372.46311.3%3.7%90.58.9%32.7%31.6%43.4%15.251
RHBCHCvs MIL LHP Harrison#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+853M46.864.635.00060%56.21,704299.168.341.42311.3%3.4%90.28.4%32.5%31.4%42.6%15.049
RHBCHCvs MIL LHP Harrison#3 · Premium RBI/Power+843M46.863.634.00072%56.71,088167.178.336.46611.1%3.7%89.68.9%39.1%25.4%42.0%17.949
RHBCHCvs MIL LHP Harrison#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1109M36.860.126.00066%48.71,182188.177.289.37113.2%3.4%89.37.3%26.9%33.2%40.9%16.743
RHBCHCvs MIL LHP Harrison#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1308M30.856.334.00034%41.61,424256.099.315.4277.4%2.2%87.84.6%32.4%22.4%38.2%16.341
RHBCHCvs MIL LHP Harrison#6 · Secondary Power+1472M30.850.036.00022%36.81,420295.103.324.4694.8%0.3%85.51.0%36.1%19.7%27.8%12.438
MIL vs David Peterson
9 hitters · primary stack for the home offense
MIL

MIL hitters

vsDavid Peterson(CHCCHC)LHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
RHBMILvs CHC LHP Peterson#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+699M54.850.637.00069%62.72,297428.193.361.50211.3%4.0%90.89.7%32.9%31.9%44.5%15.548
LHBMILvs CHC LHP Peterson#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+713M54.850.037.00068%61.91,330197.191.349.4709.4%2.4%91.09.0%36.1%22.3%44.6%7.047
RHBMILvs CHC LHP Peterson#5 · Premium RBI/Power+706M54.849.836.00081%62.239464.187.350.44011.3%3.9%90.79.3%32.8%31.7%44.0%15.447
RHBMILvs CHC LHP Peterson#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1141M32.849.039.00054%47.31,275248.134.359.5289.0%3.1%90.67.9%34.1%25.8%45.2%12.642
RHBMILvs CHC LHP Peterson#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1141M32.847.234.00059%47.01,743326.157.344.46011.3%3.2%89.97.8%32.4%31.1%41.8%14.840
SHBMILvs CHC LHP Peterson#6 · Secondary Power+1210M32.844.032.00040%44.8667108.122.323.40011.3%2.5%89.06.1%31.8%30.4%39.1%14.238
LHBMILvs CHC LHP Peterson#7 · Secondary Power+1397M30.836.032.00024%38.61,026204.087.282.4014.6%1.0%86.02.4%27.4%18.3%27.5%8.833
RHBMILvs CHC LHP Peterson#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1422M30.838.528.0007%38.213623.034.336.43111.3%0.8%86.82.0%30.5%28.7%32.5%12.633
RHBMILvs CHC LHP Peterson#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1308M30.840.729.00029%41.31,973396.087.293.38911.3%1.7%88.24.3%31.3%29.7%36.5%13.635
CHC Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
CHC hitters vsKyle Harrison(MIL)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Pete Crow-ArmstrongPete Crow-ArmstrongLHB
.301.563.26213%56%25%
.310.531.22110%57%23%
.264.495.23111%49%33%
.217.407.1909%43%46%
.206.374.1688%41%49%
.224.422.19810%42%41%
.281.498.21711%50%33%
.254.433.17910%46%39%
#2Matt ShawMatt ShawRHB
.258.455.1975%38%17%
.266.429.1634%39%16%
.226.400.1745%34%22%
.212.376.1645%33%27%
.201.345.1444%32%29%
.220.389.1695%33%24%
.220.368.1485%31%25%
.199.320.1214%29%29%
#3Seiya SuzukiSeiya SuzukiRHB
.271.459.1889%45%23%
.279.433.1547%45%22%
.237.404.1678%39%31%
.222.379.1578%39%38%
.211.348.1377%37%40%
.230.393.1638%38%34%
.230.371.1418%36%34%
.208.323.1157%33%40%
#4Alex BregmanAlex BregmanRHB
.256.370.1145%41%15%
.264.350.0864%42%14%
.224.326.1025%36%21%
.210.306.0964%36%25%
.200.281.0814%34%26%
.218.317.0995%35%22%
.218.300.0824%33%23%
.197.261.0644%30%26%
#5Michael BuschMichael BuschLHB
.252.421.16912%45%22%
.259.398.13910%46%20%
.221.370.14911%40%29%
.181.305.1249%35%40%
.172.280.1088%33%43%
.188.316.12810%34%36%
.235.373.13811%40%29%
.212.324.11210%37%34%
#6Nico HoernerNico HoernerRHB
.251.370.119110%30%9%
.258.350.09285%31%9%
.220.326.10695%27%12%
.206.306.10095%27%15%
.196.281.08584%25%16%
.213.317.10497%26%13%
.213.300.08791%25%14%
.193.261.06881%23%16%
#7Ian HappIan HappSHB
.240.499.25915%48%27%
.247.471.22412%49%25%
.211.439.22813%43%36%
.188.393.20512%40%46%
.179.360.18111%38%49%
.195.407.21213%39%41%
.215.425.21013%41%38%
.195.370.17512%38%44%
#8Carson KellyCarson KellyRHB
.295.427.1327%42%18%
.303.403.1006%43%17%
.259.375.1166%37%24%
.242.353.1116%37%29%
.230.324.0946%35%31%
.251.365.1146%36%26%
.251.345.0946%34%27%
.227.300.0735%32%31%
#9Dansby SwansonDansby SwansonRHB
.209.409.2008%44%25%
.215.387.1726%45%24%
.183.360.1777%39%34%
.171.338.1677%39%41%
.163.310.1476%37%44%
.178.350.1727%38%37%
.178.331.1537%36%37%
.161.288.1276%33%44%
MIL Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
MIL hitters vsDavid Peterson(CHC)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Jackson ChourioJackson ChourioRHB
.311.566.25515%51%20%
.320.534.21412%52%19%
.272.498.22613%45%27%
.255.468.21313%45%33%
.242.429.18712%42%35%
.264.484.22013%44%29%
.264.458.19413%42%30%
.239.398.15911%38%35%
#2Brice TurangBrice TurangLHB
.278.496.21810%49%19%
.286.468.1828%50%18%
.244.436.1929%43%25%
.200.359.1598%37%35%
.190.329.1397%35%37%
.207.372.1658%36%31%
.259.439.1809%43%25%
.234.382.1488%40%30%
#3William ContrerasWilliam ContrerasRHB
.317.461.1448%49%17%
.326.436.1107%50%16%
.278.406.1287%43%22%
.260.381.1217%43%27%
.247.350.1036%40%29%
.270.395.1257%42%24%
.270.373.1037%40%25%
.244.325.0816%37%29%
#4Andrew VaughnAndrew VaughnRHB
.369.575.2065%47%16%
.379.543.1644%48%15%
.323.505.1824%42%22%
.302.475.1734%42%26%
.287.436.1493%39%28%
.313.492.1794%41%23%
.313.465.1524%38%24%
.283.404.1213%35%28%
#5Gary SánchezGary SánchezRHB
.226.473.24711%40%23%
.232.447.2158%41%22%
.198.416.2189%35%31%
.185.391.2069%35%37%
.176.359.1838%33%40%
.192.405.21310%34%33%
.192.383.1919%32%34%
.174.333.1598%30%40%
#6Blake PerkinsBlake PerkinsSHB
.161.267.1065%35%19%
.165.252.0874%36%17%
.141.235.0945%31%25%
.125.210.0854%30%32%
.119.193.0744%28%34%
.130.217.0874%29%28%
.144.227.0835%30%26%
.130.198.0684%28%31%
#7Sal FrelickSal FrelickLHB
.244.346.1023%29%9%
.251.326.0752%30%9%
.213.304.0912%26%13%
.175.250.0752%23%17%
.166.230.0642%21%19%
.181.259.0782%22%16%
.227.306.0792%26%13%
.205.266.0612%24%15%
#8Cooper PrattCooper PrattRHB
.272.280.0086%30%22%
.280.264.0004%30%20%
.238.246.0085%26%29%
.223.231.0085%26%35%
.212.212.0004%24%38%
.231.239.0085%25%32%
.231.226.0005%24%32%
.209.197.0004%22%38%
#9Joey OrtizJoey OrtizRHB
.208.267.0593%35%16%
.214.252.0383%36%15%
.182.235.0533%31%22%
.170.220.0503%31%27%
.162.202.0403%29%28%
.177.228.0513%30%24%
.177.216.0393%29%24%
.160.188.0282%27%28%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Ian Happ
SHB#7 · Secondary Power+424M43.000337N/A16N/A.229.338.462.230.34713.1%90.0
Pete Crow-Armstrong
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+555M33.000350N/A17N/A.287.367.521.232.3839.1%91.4
Jackson Chourio
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+699M37.000205N/A10N/A.296.346.524.193.3746.8%90.8
Brice Turang
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+713M37.000336N/A11N/A.265.371.459.191.36214.6%91.0
Gary Sánchez
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+706M36.000149N/A7N/A.215.356.438.187.35216.8%90.7
Michael Busch
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+728M35.000357N/A9N/A.240.370.390.149.34315.1%88.5
Carson Kelly
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+774M35.000209N/A4N/A.281.364.395.179.34110.0%90.5
Matt Shaw
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+853M35.000140N/A4N/A.246.309.421.168.3206.4%90.2
Seiya Suzuki
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+843M34.000275N/A10N/A.258.349.425.178.34011.3%89.6
Dansby Swanson
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1109M26.000299N/A11N/A.199.299.379.177.30112.4%89.3
William Contreras
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1141M39.000323N/A8N/A.302.365.427.134.3479.3%90.6
Andrew Vaughn
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1141M34.000130N/A2N/A.351.438.532.157.42012.3%89.9
Blake Perkins
SHB#6 · Secondary Power+1210M32.00096N/A1N/A.153.242.247.122.2289.4%89.0
Alex Bregman
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1308M34.000361N/A6N/A.244.338.343.099.30811.1%87.8
Nico Hoerner
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1472M36.000360N/A4N/A.239.317.343.103.2979.4%85.5
Sal Frelick
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+1397M32.000262N/A3N/A.232.302.320.087.2798.8%86.0
Cooper Pratt
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1422M28.00031N/AN/AN/A.259.323.259.034.2699.7%86.8
Joey Ortiz
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1308M29.000188N/A1N/A.198.281.247.087.24610.6%88.2
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
David Peterson
David Peterson
CHC · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season37.3184.321.358.0371.9620.4811.4%22.2%20.7%17.2%22.2%9.166.8%42.2%18.4%
vs LHB22.0103.258.309.351.0931.4131.235.8%22.2%30.1%22.2%12.686.8%42.2%18.4%
vs RHB45.7216.297.339.344.0471.7730.5911.1%22.2%14.8%22.2%6.316.8%42.2%18.4%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3022.7112.323.385.0622.0320.7913.4%22.2%21.4%22.2%9.536.8%42.2%18.4%
L1514.068.350.400.0502.0710.6411.8%22.2%17.6%22.2%7.716.8%42.2%18.4%
Kyle Harrison
Kyle Harrison
MIL · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season72.0290.216.306.0901.0681.006.2%29.1%30.0%19.8%29.1%10.886.6%33.1%30.4%
vs LHB21.787.229.250.265.0361.0610.424.6%29.1%25.3%29.1%9.146.6%33.1%30.4%
vs RHB50.0203.206.280.317.1111.0671.266.9%29.1%32.0%29.1%11.706.6%33.1%30.4%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3026.3107.225.373.1481.0351.713.7%29.1%26.2%29.1%9.576.6%33.1%30.4%
L1514.761.259.466.2071.1642.453.3%29.1%23.0%29.1%8.596.6%33.1%30.4%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
David Peterson
David Peterson
CHC · LHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Sinker28.5%.301.416.458.1570.0%11.3%6.6%25.0%0.0%92.10.0%53.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider24.6%.226.244.310.0840.0%32.9%34.5%28.6%0.0%86.30.0%41.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam Fastball22.9%.354.425.542.1880.0%15.0%14.5%13.3%0.0%92.30.0%27.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball12.8%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%81.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup11.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%85.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Kyle Harrison
Kyle Harrison
MIL · LHP · 4 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball58.8%.221.291.362.1410.0%31.1%35.4%23.6%0.0%95.00.0%36.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slurve30.3%.141.207.224.0830.0%26.6%27.8%19.5%0.0%82.20.0%25.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup9.4%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker1.6%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%94.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-06-27 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Jun 2026