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PIT
PIT@MIL
IN PROGRESS
MIL
Game 1 of 15 Tue · Aug 4, 11:40 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · PIT vs Logan Henderson · MIL vs Jared Jones

#1Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn ValdezRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
PIT· RFvs MIL RHP Henderson
🔥 Elite
Test
81
Ceil
102
Likely
78
kHR
89
Zone
54
Form
100%
EV
94.0
Brl%
17.8%
ISO
.356
xwOBA
.473
xwOBAc
.560
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
7.9%
SwtSp%
35.3%
HH%
56.7%
elite Barrel 18%, elite ISO .356, 94.0 EV+424MODEL
#2Brandon Lowe
Brandon LoweLHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
PIT· DHvs MIL RHP Henderson
🟢 Strong
Test
77
Ceil
86
Likely
66
kHR
79
Zone
43
Form
92%
EV
90.9
Brl%
12.2%
ISO
.231
xwOBA
.333
xwOBAc
.470
SwStr%
17.4%
PullBrl
5.9%
SwtSp%
35.5%
HH%
44.9%
strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .231, pull-side power+424MODEL
#3Jackson Chourio
Jackson ChourioRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
MIL· LFvs PIT RHP Jones
🟡 Viable
Test
63
Ceil
63
Likely
56
kHR
71
Zone
41
Form
75%
EV
91.9
Brl%
12.6%
ISO
.181
xwOBA
.328
xwOBAc
.475
SwStr%
11.2%
PullBrl
3.8%
SwtSp%
32.2%
HH%
45.8%
strong Barrel 13% (matchup soft)+546MODEL
#4Garrett Mitchell
Garrett MitchellLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
MIL· CFvs PIT RHP Jones
🟠 Longshot
Test
59
Ceil
67
Likely
56
kHR
71
Zone
37
Form
65%
EV
92.7
Brl%
14.1%
ISO
.165
xwOBA
.355
xwOBAc
.488
SwStr%
16.4%
PullBrl
4.7%
SwtSp%
32.2%
HH%
49.8%
elite Barrel 14% (matchup soft)+555MODEL
#5Christian Yelich
Christian YelichLHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
MIL· DHvs PIT RHP Jones
🟠 Longshot
Test
55
Ceil
60
Likely
51
kHR
62
Zone
37
Form
78%
EV
90.7
Brl%
9.4%
ISO
.188
xwOBA
.383
xwOBAc
.490
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.9%
SwtSp%
32.8%
HH%
44.1%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+706MODEL
#6Bryan Reynolds
Bryan ReynoldsSHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
PIT· LFvs MIL RHP Henderson
🟠 Longshot
Test
51
Ceil
66
Likely
52
kHR
62
Zone
37
Form
69%
EV
90.8
Brl%
11.3%
ISO
.180
xwOBA
.355
xwOBAc
.469
SwStr%
13.0%
PullBrl
4.5%
SwtSp%
36.4%
HH%
46.4%
strong Barrel 11% (matchup soft)+706MODEL
#7Brice Turang
Brice TurangLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
MIL· 2Bvs PIT RHP Jones
🟠 Longshot
Test
51
Ceil
58
Likely
49
kHR
59
Zone
39
Form
67%
EV
90.5
Brl%
8.3%
ISO
.191
xwOBA
.349
xwOBAc
.481
SwStr%
9.4%
PullBrl
2.3%
SwtSp%
37.7%
HH%
42.1%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+790MODEL
#8Spencer Horwitz
Spencer HorwitzLHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
PIT· 1Bvs MIL RHP Henderson
🟠 Longshot
Test
47
Ceil
63
Likely
49
kHR
56
Zone
35
Form
57%
EV
90.0
Brl%
8.1%
ISO
.162
xwOBA
.378
xwOBAc
.489
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.3%
SwtSp%
32.4%
HH%
42.1%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+873MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — PIT
vs Logan Henderson (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

PITPIT
vs Logan Henderson (MIL)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — MIL
vs Jared Jones (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

MILMIL
vs Jared Jones (PIT)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
PIT + MIL · Combined Hitter Matrix
Both lineups in one table · sticky HITTER + TEAM columns · filter to one side with the chips
PITvsMIL

PIT + MIL hitters

combined matrix · click any header to sort · click a row for detail
HitterTeamHandMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
PIT Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
PIT hitters vsLogan Henderson(MIL)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Jake MangumJake MangumSHB
.318.409.0911%28%18%
.327.387.0601%28%17%
.279.360.0811%24%25%
.248.322.0741%23%31%
.236.296.0601%22%33%
.258.334.0761%23%28%
.285.349.0641%24%26%
.258.303.0451%22%30%
#2Brandon LoweBrandon LoweLHB
.268.528.26014%49%29%
.275.499.22411%50%28%
.235.465.23012%43%40%
.220.436.21612%43%48%
.209.400.19110%40%51%
.228.452.22412%42%43%
.228.427.19911%39%44%
.206.372.16610%36%51%
#3Bryan ReynoldsBryan ReynoldsSHB
.282.486.20413%51%24%
.291.459.16810%52%23%
.247.427.18011%45%33%
.221.383.16210%42%42%
.210.351.1419%40%44%
.229.396.16711%41%37%
.253.414.16111%43%34%
.229.360.13110%40%40%
#4Esmerlyn ValdezEsmerlyn ValdezRHB
.275.678.40327%55%34%
.283.641.35821%56%32%
.241.597.35623%48%46%
.198.491.29320%42%63%
.188.451.26318%40%67%
.205.508.30320%41%56%
.256.601.34524%48%46%
.232.522.29021%45%54%
#5Spencer HorwitzSpencer HorwitzLHB
.290.484.1949%37%13%
.298.457.1597%37%12%
.254.426.1728%32%18%
.238.400.1628%32%21%
.226.367.1417%30%23%
.246.414.1688%31%19%
.246.392.1468%30%19%
.223.340.1177%28%23%
#6Nick GonzalesNick GonzalesRHB
.328.437.1093%39%20%
.337.413.0763%39%19%
.287.385.0983%34%28%
.235.317.0823%30%38%
.224.291.0672%28%40%
.244.328.0843%29%34%
.305.388.0833%34%28%
.276.337.0613%32%32%
#7Endy RodríguezEndy RodríguezSHB
.263.459.19612%48%22%
.270.433.1639%48%21%
.230.404.17410%42%30%
.205.361.15610%40%38%
.195.332.1379%37%40%
.212.374.16210%39%34%
.235.391.15610%41%31%
.212.340.1289%37%36%
#8Jacob GonzalezJacob GonzalezLHB
.254.418.1643%44%17%
.261.395.1343%45%16%
.223.368.1453%39%23%
.208.345.1373%39%28%
.198.317.1193%36%29%
.216.358.1423%38%25%
.216.338.1223%36%25%
.195.294.0993%33%29%
#9Jared TrioloJared TrioloRHB
.256.336.0803%39%20%
.264.317.0532%39%18%
.224.295.0712%34%26%
.184.243.0592%30%36%
.175.223.0482%28%39%
.191.252.0612%29%32%
.239.298.0592%34%26%
.216.259.0432%32%31%
MIL Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
MIL hitters vsJared Jones(PIT)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Brice TurangBrice TurangLHB
.285.500.2159%45%18%
.293.472.1797%46%17%
.249.440.1918%40%25%
.233.413.1808%40%30%
.222.379.1577%38%32%
.242.428.1868%39%27%
.242.405.1638%37%27%
.219.352.1337%34%32%
#2Jackson ChourioJackson ChourioRHB
.290.497.20714%49%20%
.298.469.17111%50%19%
.254.437.18312%43%27%
.208.360.15211%38%37%
.198.330.1329%36%40%
.216.372.15611%37%33%
.270.440.17013%44%27%
.244.383.13911%40%32%
#3Garrett MitchellGarrett MitchellLHB
.277.465.18816%54%32%
.285.440.15512%55%30%
.243.409.16614%47%43%
.227.385.15814%47%52%
.216.353.13712%44%55%
.236.398.16214%46%46%
.236.377.14113%43%47%
.213.328.11512%40%55%
#4William ContrerasWilliam ContrerasRHB
.284.426.1428%46%17%
.292.402.1106%47%16%
.248.374.1267%41%22%
.204.308.1046%35%31%
.194.283.0895%34%33%
.211.319.1086%35%27%
.264.377.1137%41%22%
.239.328.0897%38%26%
#5Christian YelichChristian YelichLHB
.249.411.16211%45%25%
.256.389.1338%46%24%
.218.362.1449%39%34%
.204.340.1369%39%41%
.194.312.1188%37%44%
.212.352.14010%38%37%
.212.333.1219%36%37%
.191.290.0998%34%44%
#6Andrew VaughnAndrew VaughnRHB
.313.508.1956%47%16%
.322.479.1575%48%15%
.274.446.1725%41%21%
.225.368.1435%36%29%
.214.337.1234%34%31%
.233.381.1485%35%26%
.291.450.1596%41%21%
.263.391.1285%38%25%
#7Luis LaraLuis LaraSHB
.252.410.1585%41%16%
.259.388.1294%42%15%
.221.361.1405%36%22%
.197.323.1264%34%28%
.187.296.1094%32%30%
.204.334.1304%34%25%
.226.350.1245%35%23%
.204.304.1004%32%27%
#8Cooper PrattCooper PrattRHB
.306.424.1185%33%22%
.314.401.0874%34%20%
.268.373.1054%29%29%
.220.307.0874%26%40%
.209.282.0733%24%43%
.228.318.0904%25%36%
.284.376.0924%30%29%
.257.327.0704%27%34%
#9David HamiltonDavid HamiltonLHB
.247.352.1054%30%19%
.254.333.0793%30%18%
.216.310.0944%26%26%
.202.291.0894%26%32%
.192.267.0753%25%34%
.210.301.0914%26%28%
.210.285.0754%24%29%
.190.248.0583%22%34%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Esmerlyn Valdez
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M54.000172N/A14N/A.262.366.628.356.41614.0%94.0
Brandon Lowe
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M43.000462N/A23N/A.255.323.489.231.3489.1%90.9
Jackson Chourio
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+546M41.000350N/A13N/A.276.331.460.181.3427.1%91.9
Garrett Mitchell
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+555M37.000367N/A8N/A.264.358.431.165.34712.0%92.7
Christian Yelich
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+706M37.000332N/A7N/A.237.323.381.188.31010.5%90.7
Bryan Reynolds
SHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+706M37.000492N/A15N/A.269.382.450.180.36614.0%90.8
Brice Turang
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+790M39.000476N/A16N/A.271.364.463.191.36012.8%90.5
Spencer Horwitz
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+873M35.000299N/A10N/A.276.381.448.162.36513.4%90.0
Endy Rodríguez
SHB#7 · Secondary Power+853M31.000143N/A5N/A.250.366.425.160.35215.4%90.0
Jacob Gonzalez
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1175M34.000136N/A4N/A.242.296.387.141.3005.9%89.5
Jared Triolo
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M33.000253N/A1N/A.244.320.311.129.2888.7%89.2
William Contreras
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1158M38.000442N/A10N/A.270.335.394.122.3198.6%89.7
Andrew Vaughn
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1141M35.000211N/A4N/A.298.389.470.157.37411.4%89.9
Luis Lara
SHB#7 · Secondary Power+1175M34.00059N/AN/AN/A.240.339.380.140.31913.6%89.5
Cooper Pratt
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1248M31.000139N/A2N/A.291.381.393.101.34512.9%88.5
David Hamilton
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1175M33.000259N/A3N/A.235.316.326.135.2919.7%89.4
Jake Mangum
SHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1329M30.000318N/A3N/A.303.356.379.072.3275.0%87.8
Nick Gonzales
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1374M28.000443N/A6N/A.312.366.405.092.3436.3%86.1
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Jared Jones
Jared Jones
PIT · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season56.0229.216.343.1271.1191.457.0%30.9%27.1%10.6%30.9%9.967.4%37.0%26.7%
vs LHB30.3126.239.317.368.1291.2251.487.1%30.9%30.2%30.9%11.277.4%37.0%26.7%
vs RHB21.782.132.250.211.0790.7420.837.3%30.9%24.4%30.9%8.317.4%37.0%26.7%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3027.0103.173.296.1230.8141.334.9%30.9%30.1%30.9%10.337.4%37.0%26.7%
L1516.066.226.419.1931.1242.256.1%30.9%21.2%30.9%7.887.4%37.0%26.7%
Logan Henderson
Logan Henderson
MIL · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season50.0192.193.309.1160.9071.265.2%28.2%32.3%10.9%28.2%11.167.6%34.3%27.6%
vs LHB30.7116.174.250.257.0830.8530.886.0%28.2%31.0%28.2%10.577.6%34.3%27.6%
vs RHB13.053.235.294.353.1181.0821.383.8%28.2%34.0%28.2%12.467.6%34.3%27.6%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3027.0102.175.330.1550.7851.673.9%28.2%31.4%28.2%10.677.6%34.3%27.6%
L1516.764.180.377.1970.8442.164.7%28.2%37.5%28.2%12.967.6%34.3%27.6%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Jared Jones
Jared Jones
PIT · RHP · 4 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball45.1%.146.233.326.1800.0%24.9%23.7%23.5%0.0%98.40.0%34.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider35.1%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%89.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup12.4%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%93.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball7.4%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%85.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Logan Henderson
Logan Henderson
MIL · RHP · 4 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball44.8%.157.224.271.1140.0%26.5%39.5%24.4%0.0%93.00.0%42.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup32.7%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter19.4%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper3.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%80.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-08-04 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Aug 2026