Clutch Algorithm
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CT
COL
COL@MIN
FIRST PITCH
MIN
Game 10 of 15 Sat · Jun 27, 11:10 PM
CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · COL vs Mike Paredes · MIN vs Michael Lorenzen

#1Mickey Moniak
Mickey MoniakLHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
COL· LFvs MIN RHP Paredes
🔥 Elite
Test
83
Ceil
77
Likely
65
kHR
83
Zone
45
Form
94%
EV
92.2
Brl%
12.4%
ISO
.248
xwOBA
.383
xwOBAc
.529
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
5.3%
SwtSp%
33.7%
HH%
48.6%
strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .248, pull-side power+424MODEL
#2Hunter Goodman
Hunter GoodmanRHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
COL· DHvs MIN RHP Paredes
🔥 Elite
Test
83
Ceil
76
Likely
65
kHR
88
Zone
40
Form
100%
EV
91.2
Brl%
16.4%
ISO
.270
xwOBA
.320
xwOBAc
.451
SwStr%
19.1%
PullBrl
8.1%
SwtSp%
33.5%
HH%
45.9%
elite Barrel 16%, elite ISO .270, pull-side power+424MODEL
#3Kody Clemens
Kody ClemensLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
MIN· 2Bvs COL RHP Lorenzen
🔥 Elite
Test
83
Ceil
75
Likely
66
kHR
84
Zone
51
Form
88%
EV
92.4
Brl%
12.8%
ISO
.228
xwOBA
.337
xwOBAc
.484
SwStr%
12.1%
PullBrl
5.5%
SwtSp%
35.4%
HH%
45.0%
strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .228, park/wind boost+424MODEL
#4Byron Buxton
Byron BuxtonRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
MIN· CFvs COL RHP Lorenzen
🟢 Strong
Test
79
Ceil
77
Likely
68
kHR
88
Zone
47
Form
100%
EV
90.7
Brl%
19.1%
ISO
.312
xwOBA
.356
xwOBAc
.518
SwStr%
16.5%
PullBrl
9.2%
SwtSp%
33.5%
HH%
48.4%
elite Barrel 19%, elite ISO .312, pull-side power+424MODEL
#5Tyler Freeman
Tyler FreemanRHB#6 · Secondary Power
COL· 2Bvs MIN RHP Paredes
🟠 Longshot
Test
53
Ceil
55
Likely
50
kHR
64
Zone
38
Form
79%
EV
90.8
Brl%
11.6%
ISO
.206
xwOBA
.384
xwOBAc
.538
SwStr%
10.7%
PullBrl
3.8%
SwtSp%
36.0%
HH%
46.3%
strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .206 (matchup soft)+673MODEL
#6Tristan Gray
Tristan GrayLHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot
MIN· SSvs COL RHP Lorenzen
🟠 Longshot
Test
53
Ceil
49
Likely
47
kHR
61
Zone
38
Form
67%
EV
90.5
Brl%
8.9%
ISO
.179
xwOBA
.337
xwOBAc
.436
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.7%
SwtSp%
32.7%
HH%
43.4%
park/wind boost (matchup soft)+742MODEL
#7Josh Bell
Josh BellSHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
MIN· DHvs COL RHP Lorenzen
🟠 Longshot
Test
49
Ceil
47
Likely
45
kHR
59
Zone
36
Form
59%
EV
89.3
Brl%
9.5%
ISO
.148
xwOBA
.318
xwOBAc
.462
SwStr%
13.2%
PullBrl
4.1%
SwtSp%
33.8%
HH%
41.9%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+790MODEL
#8TJ Rumfield
TJ RumfieldLHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
COL· 1Bvs MIN RHP Paredes
🟠 Longshot
Test
41
Ceil
38
Likely
38
kHR
49
Zone
34
Form
66%
EV
84.3
Brl%
6.0%
ISO
.200
xwOBA
.320
xwOBAc
.441
SwStr%
9.8%
PullBrl
2.7%
SwtSp%
38.1%
HH%
30.5%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+1109MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — COL
vs Mike Paredes (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

COLCOL
vs Mike Paredes (MIN)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — MIN
vs Michael Lorenzen (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

MINMIN
vs Michael Lorenzen (COL)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
COL vs Mike Paredes
9 hitters · primary stack for the away offense
COL

COL hitters

vsMike Paredes(MINMIN)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBCOLvs MIN RHP Paredes#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M83.077.245.00094%83.11,798324.248.383.52911.3%5.3%92.212.4%33.7%33.0%48.6%16.565
RHBCOLvs MIN RHP Paredes#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M83.075.840.000100%87.71,244183.270.320.45119.1%8.1%91.216.4%33.5%33.5%45.9%19.265
RHBCOLvs MIN RHP Paredes#6 · Secondary Power+673M53.054.738.00079%63.91,346239.206.384.53810.7%3.8%90.811.6%36.0%30.2%46.3%12.550
LHBCOLvs MIN RHP Paredes#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1109M41.038.334.00066%48.71,244234.200.320.4419.8%2.7%84.36.0%38.1%29.2%30.5%15.138
SHBCOLvs MIN RHP Paredes#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1158M37.043.920.00044%46.71,072176.127.310.43115.8%2.6%88.35.7%31.1%32.2%41.8%18.036
LHBCOLvs MIN RHP Paredes#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1141M35.046.230.00044%47.3866166.141.296.37611.3%2.8%89.57.0%32.1%30.8%40.6%14.539
LHBCOLvs MIN RHP Paredes#7 · Secondary Power+1287M35.044.229.00028%41.91,069198.127.333.48711.5%0.9%89.32.5%42.3%21.9%37.3%13.536
RHBCOLvs MIN RHP Paredes#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1141M35.047.132.00041%47.4994168.126.330.45010.5%2.9%89.37.1%42.4%20.6%43.5%11.840
LHBCOLvs MIN RHP Paredes#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1125M35.047.030.00015%48.0353.000.295.25111.3%3.1%89.87.5%32.2%31.0%41.2%14.740
MIN vs Michael Lorenzen
9 hitters · primary stack for the home offense
MIN

MIN hitters

vsMichael Lorenzen(COLCOL)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBMINvs COL RHP Lorenzen#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M83.074.651.00088%83.61,057187.228.337.48412.1%5.5%92.412.8%35.4%31.2%45.0%15.666
RHBMINvs COL RHP Lorenzen#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M79.077.047.000100%88.51,248214.312.356.51816.5%9.2%90.719.1%33.5%36.7%48.4%20.868
LHBMINvs COL RHP Lorenzen#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+742M53.049.338.00067%60.633559.179.337.43611.3%3.7%90.58.9%32.7%31.6%43.4%15.247
SHBMINvs COL RHP Lorenzen#4 · Premium RBI/Power+790M49.047.036.00059%58.71,240220.148.318.46213.2%4.1%89.39.5%33.8%24.8%41.9%13.445
SHBMINvs COL RHP Lorenzen#7 · Secondary Power+1192M37.039.934.00068%45.21,221239.199.276.39410.7%1.9%87.64.6%32.8%28.2%29.5%14.437
LHBMINvs COL RHP Lorenzen#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1125M35.047.936.00058%48.22,211381.154.354.45211.3%3.1%89.87.7%32.3%31.1%41.5%14.841
SHBMINvs COL RHP Lorenzen#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1141M35.047.136.00057%47.61,505279.145.351.46111.3%2.9%89.67.2%32.2%30.9%40.9%14.641
RHBMINvs COL RHP Lorenzen#6 · Secondary Power+1125M35.046.836.00058%48.01,572296.151.325.43111.3%3.1%89.87.5%32.3%31.0%41.3%14.741
RHBMINvs COL RHP Lorenzen#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1329M33.035.238.00020%40.51,190220.075.295.4056.9%1.2%84.53.2%35.9%26.9%28.3%17.335
COL Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
COL hitters vsMike Paredes(MIN)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Jake McCarthyJake McCarthyLHB
.311.502.1915%25%19%
.320.474.1544%25%18%
.272.442.1704%22%26%
.255.415.1604%22%31%
.242.381.1394%20%33%
.264.430.1664%21%28%
.264.406.1424%20%28%
.239.353.1144%18%33%
#2Mickey MoniakMickey MoniakLHB
.296.644.34815%45%24%
.305.608.30311%45%23%
.259.566.30713%39%33%
.243.532.28913%39%39%
.231.488.25711%37%42%
.252.551.29913%38%35%
.252.521.26912%36%36%
.228.453.22511%33%42%
#3Hunter GoodmanHunter GoodmanRHB
.251.544.29317%48%29%
.258.514.25613%49%28%
.220.479.25915%43%40%
.180.394.21413%37%54%
.172.362.19012%35%58%
.187.408.22113%36%49%
.234.482.24816%43%40%
.211.419.20814%40%46%
#4TJ RumfieldTJ RumfieldLHB
.298.521.2237%33%17%
.307.492.1855%34%16%
.261.458.1976%29%23%
.245.430.1856%29%27%
.233.395.1625%28%29%
.253.445.1926%29%24%
.254.421.1676%27%25%
.229.366.1375%25%29%
#5Willi CastroWilli CastroSHB
.296.444.1486%45%25%
.305.419.1145%46%24%
.259.390.1316%40%34%
.231.349.1185%38%43%
.220.321.1015%36%46%
.240.362.1225%37%38%
.265.378.1136%39%35%
.240.329.0895%36%41%
#6Tyler FreemanTyler FreemanRHB
.294.401.1071%36%10%
.302.378.0761%37%10%
.258.352.0941%32%14%
.211.290.0791%28%19%
.201.266.0651%26%20%
.219.300.0811%27%17%
.274.355.0811%32%14%
.248.309.0611%30%16%
#7Troy JohnstonTroy JohnstonLHB
.330.477.1473%40%19%
.339.451.1122%41%18%
.289.420.1313%36%26%
.270.394.1243%35%31%
.257.362.1052%33%33%
.280.408.1283%35%28%
.280.386.1062%33%29%
.254.336.0822%30%33%
#8Kyle KarrosKyle KarrosRHB
.261.401.1408%47%21%
.269.378.1096%48%20%
.229.352.1237%41%28%
.188.290.1026%36%39%
.179.266.0875%34%41%
.195.300.1056%35%35%
.243.355.1127%41%28%
.220.309.0896%38%33%
#9Brett SullivanBrett SullivanLHB
.223.416.1934%31%16%
.229.393.1643%31%15%
.195.366.1713%27%21%
.183.344.1613%27%26%
.174.315.1413%25%28%
.189.356.1673%26%23%
.189.336.1473%25%24%
.171.293.1223%23%27%
MIN Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
MIN hitters vsMichael Lorenzen(COL)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Trevor LarnachTrevor LarnachLHB
.290.453.1638%34%23%
.298.427.1296%34%22%
.254.398.1447%30%31%
.238.374.1367%30%38%
.226.343.1176%28%40%
.246.387.1417%29%34%
.246.366.1206%27%34%
.223.318.0956%25%40%
#2Byron BuxtonByron BuxtonRHB
.284.632.34821%53%26%
.292.597.30516%54%25%
.248.556.30818%46%36%
.204.457.25316%40%49%
.194.420.22614%38%52%
.211.474.26316%39%44%
.264.560.29619%47%36%
.239.487.24817%43%42%
#3Kody ClemensKody ClemensLHB
.253.498.24514%48%22%
.260.470.21011%49%20%
.222.438.21612%42%29%
.208.411.20312%42%35%
.197.378.18111%40%38%
.215.426.21112%41%31%
.215.403.18811%39%32%
.195.350.15510%36%37%
#4Josh BellJosh BellSHB
.257.423.16611%46%22%
.265.400.1358%47%21%
.225.372.1479%40%29%
.201.333.1329%38%37%
.191.306.1158%36%40%
.208.345.1379%37%33%
.230.361.1319%39%31%
.208.314.1068%36%36%
#5Victor CaratiniVictor CaratiniSHB
.254.401.1479%43%18%
.261.378.1177%44%17%
.223.352.1298%38%24%
.198.315.1177%36%30%
.189.289.1006%34%32%
.206.326.1207%35%27%
.227.341.1148%37%25%
.206.297.0917%34%29%
#6Royce LewisRoyce LewisRHB
.216.394.17815%45%29%
.222.372.15011%45%27%
.190.347.15713%39%39%
.155.285.13011%34%54%
.148.262.11410%32%58%
.161.296.13511%33%49%
.201.349.14813%39%40%
.182.304.12212%36%46%
#7Brooks LeeBrooks LeeSHB
.252.465.2135%32%18%
.259.440.1814%33%17%
.221.409.1884%29%24%
.197.366.1694%27%30%
.187.336.1494%26%33%
.204.379.1754%26%27%
.226.397.1714%28%25%
.204.345.1414%26%29%
#8Tristan GrayTristan GrayLHB
.260.402.1427%44%30%
.268.379.1115%45%28%
.228.353.1256%39%40%
.214.332.1186%39%48%
.203.305.1025%37%52%
.221.344.1236%38%43%
.221.325.1046%36%44%
.200.283.0835%33%52%
#9Luke KeaschallLuke KeaschallRHB
.261.351.0904%31%14%
.269.332.0633%31%13%
.229.309.0803%27%19%
.188.254.0663%24%26%
.179.233.0542%22%28%
.195.263.0683%23%23%
.243.311.0683%27%19%
.220.270.0503%25%22%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Mickey Moniak
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M45.000170N/A12N/A.282.335.596.248.3955.9%92.2
Hunter Goodman
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M40.000314N/A21N/A.239.309.504.270.3488.0%91.2
Kody Clemens
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M51.000266N/A11N/A.241.307.461.228.3326.8%92.4
Byron Buxton
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M47.000315N/A25N/A.270.327.585.312.3867.0%90.7
Tyler Freeman
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+673M38.000202N/A3N/A.280.360.371.206.3334.5%90.8
Tristan Gray
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+742M38.000150N/A4N/A.248.289.372.179.2905.3%90.5
Josh Bell
SHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+790M36.000313N/A9N/A.245.304.392.148.3077.3%89.3
TJ Rumfield
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1109M34.000314N/A12N/A.284.360.482.200.3678.9%84.3
Willi Castro
SHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1158M20.000270N/A6N/A.282.356.411.127.3419.3%88.3
Brooks Lee
SHB#7 · Secondary Power+1192M34.000309N/A13N/A.240.299.431.199.3187.1%87.6
Jake McCarthy
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1141M30.000234N/A5N/A.296.338.465.141.3476.0%89.5
Troy Johnston
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+1287M29.000271N/A3N/A.314.378.442.127.3628.1%89.3
Kyle Karros
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1141M32.000254N/A4N/A.249.339.371.126.31911.8%89.3
Brett Sullivan
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1125M30.000113N/A4N/A.212.250.385.000.2744.4%89.8
Trevor Larnach
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1125M36.000236N/A5N/A.276.374.419.154.35312.3%89.8
Victor Caratini
SHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1141M36.000222N/A6N/A.242.333.371.145.3159.5%89.6
Royce Lewis
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1125M36.000192N/A7N/A.206.286.365.151.2909.4%89.8
Luke Keaschall
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1329M38.000302N/A2N/A.249.331.325.075.2989.6%84.5
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen
COL · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season75.0362.339.456.1171.85131.567.2%19.9%18.0%8.2%19.9%7.808.9%47.2%25.1%
vs LHB34.3180.373.449.536.1632.2192.367.8%19.9%17.8%19.9%8.398.9%47.2%25.1%
vs RHB41.3186.293.328.362.0691.5240.876.5%19.9%17.7%19.9%7.198.9%47.2%25.1%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3022.3105.302.396.0941.6631.217.6%19.9%22.9%19.9%9.678.9%47.2%25.1%
L1515.365.233.333.1001.1821.176.2%19.9%26.2%19.9%9.988.9%47.2%25.1%
Mike Paredes
Mike Paredes
MIN · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season12.754.234.298.0641.2610.719.3%19.6%13.0%19.6%4.973.2%47.6%27.0%
vs LHB12.352.191.288.319.1281.1421.469.6%19.6%5.8%19.6%2.193.2%47.6%27.0%
vs RHB7.734.200.250.200.0001.3000.0011.8%19.6%23.5%19.6%9.393.2%47.6%27.0%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3012.754.234.298.0641.2610.719.3%19.6%13.0%19.6%4.973.2%47.6%27.0%
L1512.754.234.298.0641.2610.719.3%19.6%13.0%19.6%4.973.2%47.6%27.0%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen
COL · RHP · 7 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball20.3%.328.440.642.3140.0%9.8%16.0%12.0%0.0%94.10.0%60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup19.1%.311.371.459.1480.0%33.0%26.5%16.4%0.0%84.60.0%30.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker15.6%.424.469.515.0910.0%10.2%9.5%17.1%0.0%93.40.0%52.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter14.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%90.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball13.6%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider9.5%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper7.7%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Mike Paredes
Mike Paredes
MIN · RHP · 4 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam39.7%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%93.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup22.8%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper21.5%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%78.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter16.0%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-06-27 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Jun 2026