Clutch Algorithm
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MIN
MIN@NYY
IN PROGRESS
NYY
Game 1 of 15 Fri · Jul 3, 11:05 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · MIN vs Gerrit Cole · NYY vs Mike Paredes

#1Kody Clemens
Kody ClemensLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
MIN· 2Bvs NYY RHP Cole
🔥 Elite
Test
81
Ceil
84
Likely
68
kHR
82
Zone
48
Form
91%
EV
92.7
Brl%
12.7%
ISO
.233
xwOBA
.340
xwOBAc
.493
SwStr%
12.2%
PullBrl
5.3%
SwtSp%
35.1%
HH%
46.8%
strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .233, off-platoon but elite power+424MODEL
#2Ben Rice
Ben RiceLHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
NYY· DHvs MIN RHP Paredes
🔥 Elite
Test
81
Ceil
56
Likely
60
kHR
84
Zone
50
Form
100%
EV
91.7
Brl%
14.1%
ISO
.292
xwOBA
.366
xwOBAc
.510
SwStr%
11.1%
PullBrl
6.6%
SwtSp%
38.2%
HH%
45.9%
elite Barrel 14%, elite ISO .292, off-platoon but elite power+424MODEL
#3Trent Grisham
Trent GrishamLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
NYY· CFvs MIN RHP Paredes
🟡 Viable
Test
65
Ceil
39
Likely
47
kHR
71
Zone
39
Form
100%
EV
91.7
Brl%
11.5%
ISO
.229
xwOBA
.404
xwOBAc
.467
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
4.8%
SwtSp%
33.4%
HH%
47.2%
strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .229 (matchup soft)+546MODEL
#4Austin Wells
Austin WellsLHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot
NYY· Cvs MIN RHP Paredes
🟠 Longshot
Test
59
Ceil
37
Likely
45
kHR
67
Zone
39
Form
85%
EV
91.4
Brl%
10.8%
ISO
.217
xwOBA
.348
xwOBAc
.437
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
4.5%
SwtSp%
33.3%
HH%
46.3%
strong Barrel 11%, power ISO .217 (matchup soft)+626MODEL
#5Tristan Gray
Tristan GrayLHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot
MIN· SSvs NYY RHP Cole
🟠 Longshot
Test
51
Ceil
57
Likely
48
kHR
59
Zone
36
Form
67%
EV
90.5
Brl%
8.9%
ISO
.179
xwOBA
.337
xwOBAc
.436
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.7%
SwtSp%
32.7%
HH%
43.4%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+774MODEL
#6Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.LHB#6 · Secondary Power
NYY· 2Bvs MIN RHP Paredes
🟠 Longshot
Test
51
Ceil
33
Likely
38
kHR
59
Zone
28
Form
68%
EV
90.5
Brl%
8.7%
ISO
.176
xwOBA
.294
xwOBAc
.392
SwStr%
14.1%
PullBrl
4.7%
SwtSp%
27.9%
HH%
40.1%
pull-side power (matchup soft)+782MODEL
#7Josh Bell
Josh BellSHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
MIN· DHvs NYY RHP Cole
🟠 Longshot
Test
47
Ceil
56
Likely
48
kHR
59
Zone
36
Form
66%
EV
89.5
Brl%
10.5%
ISO
.168
xwOBA
.331
xwOBAc
.484
SwStr%
12.8%
PullBrl
4.4%
SwtSp%
33.6%
HH%
42.4%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+790MODEL
#8Ryan McMahon
Ryan McMahonLHB#7 · Secondary Power
NYY· 3Bvs MIN RHP Paredes
🟠 Longshot
Test
47
Ceil
34
Likely
39
kHR
56
Zone
35
Form
65%
EV
90.2
Brl%
8.3%
ISO
.167
xwOBA
.352
xwOBAc
.404
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.4%
SwtSp%
32.5%
HH%
42.5%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+863MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — MIN
vs Gerrit Cole (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

MINMIN
vs Gerrit Cole (NYY)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — NYY
vs Mike Paredes (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

NYYNYY
vs Mike Paredes (MIN)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
MIN vs Gerrit Cole
9 hitters · primary stack for the away offense
MIN

MIN hitters

vsGerrit Cole(NYYNYY)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBMINvs NYY RHP Cole#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M80.983.648.00091%82.31,139203.233.340.49312.2%5.3%92.712.7%35.1%32.2%46.8%16.568
LHBMINvs NYY RHP Cole#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+774M50.956.736.00067%59.333559.179.337.43611.3%3.7%90.58.9%32.7%31.6%43.4%15.248
SHBMINvs NYY RHP Cole#4 · Premium RBI/Power+790M46.955.836.00066%58.61,310236.168.331.48412.8%4.4%89.510.5%33.6%26.1%42.4%13.748
SHBMINvs NYY RHP Cole#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1229M34.946.932.00064%43.71,303255.189.278.39910.7%1.8%87.94.3%33.1%28.4%31.1%14.739
LHBMINvs NYY RHP Cole#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1158M32.955.235.00058%46.92,211381.154.354.45211.3%3.1%89.87.7%32.3%31.1%41.5%14.843
SHBMINvs NYY RHP Cole#6 · Secondary Power+1175M32.954.334.00057%46.31,505279.145.351.46111.3%2.9%89.67.2%32.2%30.9%40.9%14.642
RHBMINvs NYY RHP Cole#7 · Secondary Power+1158M32.949.534.00015%46.717219.000.196.15811.3%3.1%89.87.5%32.2%31.0%41.2%14.741
RHBMINvs NYY RHP Cole#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1374M30.941.536.00023%39.11,252230.083.296.4006.9%1.1%84.73.0%35.6%27.9%28.3%17.536
RHBMINvs NYY RHP Cole#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1900M0.00.0.0000%0.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00
NYY vs Mike Paredes
9 hitters · primary stack for the home offense
NYY

NYY hitters

vsMike Paredes(MINMIN)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBNYYvs MIN RHP Paredes#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M80.956.450.000100%83.81,353218.292.366.51011.1%6.6%91.714.1%38.2%29.5%45.9%14.460
LHBNYYvs MIN RHP Paredes#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+546M64.939.339.000100%71.12,266357.229.404.46711.3%4.8%91.711.5%33.4%32.6%47.2%16.147
LHBNYYvs MIN RHP Paredes#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+626M58.936.839.00085%66.61,747283.217.348.43711.3%4.5%91.410.8%33.3%32.3%46.3%15.945
LHBNYYvs MIN RHP Paredes#6 · Secondary Power+782M50.933.028.00068%59.11,271195.176.294.39214.1%4.7%90.58.7%27.9%28.4%40.1%16.038
LHBNYYvs MIN RHP Paredes#7 · Secondary Power+863M46.933.935.00065%56.12,285320.167.352.40411.3%3.4%90.28.3%32.5%31.3%42.5%15.039
LHBNYYvs MIN RHP Paredes#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1109M36.932.142.00061%48.81,408256.179.361.4998.6%3.1%89.07.4%39.8%31.0%36.9%18.938
SHBNYYvs MIN RHP Paredes#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1192M32.931.833.00047%45.51,673266.131.350.45111.3%2.7%89.36.6%32.0%30.6%39.8%14.435
RHBNYYvs MIN RHP Paredes#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1192M32.931.633.00042%45.42,083389.129.347.47611.3%2.6%89.26.5%31.9%30.6%39.7%14.334
RHBNYYvs MIN RHP Paredes#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M32.930.531.00035%44.11,443216.111.347.40911.3%2.2%88.85.5%31.7%30.2%38.3%14.033
MIN Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
MIN hitters vsGerrit Cole(NYY)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Trevor LarnachTrevor LarnachLHB
.306.471.1658%36%23%
.314.445.1316%37%21%
.268.414.1467%32%31%
.251.389.1387%32%37%
.238.357.1196%30%39%
.260.403.1437%31%33%
.260.381.1217%29%34%
.235.331.0966%27%39%
#2Brooks LeeBrooks LeeSHB
.264.475.2115%34%17%
.271.449.1784%34%16%
.231.418.1874%30%24%
.206.374.1684%28%30%
.196.343.1473%26%32%
.213.387.1744%27%27%
.236.405.1694%29%25%
.213.352.1394%26%29%
#3Kody ClemensKody ClemensLHB
.253.512.25914%51%21%
.260.483.22311%52%20%
.222.450.22812%45%28%
.208.423.21512%44%34%
.197.388.19111%42%36%
.215.438.22312%43%31%
.215.414.19912%41%31%
.195.360.16510%38%36%
#4Josh BellJosh BellSHB
.256.445.18912%46%21%
.264.420.1569%47%20%
.224.391.16710%40%29%
.200.350.15010%38%36%
.190.321.1318%36%39%
.207.363.15610%37%32%
.229.379.15010%39%30%
.207.330.1239%36%35%
#5Royce LewisRoyce LewisRHB
.222.406.18413%45%29%
.228.384.15610%46%28%
.194.357.16311%40%40%
.159.294.13510%35%55%
.151.270.1199%33%58%
.165.304.13910%34%49%
.206.360.15412%40%40%
.187.313.12610%37%47%
#6Victor CaratiniVictor CaratiniSHB
.251.403.1529%43%18%
.258.380.1227%44%17%
.220.354.1348%38%25%
.196.317.1217%36%31%
.186.291.1056%34%33%
.203.328.1257%35%28%
.225.343.1188%36%26%
.203.298.0957%34%30%
#7Ryan KreidlerRyan KreidlerRHB
.293.529.23611%35%26%
.301.500.1998%36%24%
.257.465.2089%31%35%
.210.383.1738%27%48%
.200.352.1527%25%51%
.218.397.1798%26%43%
.273.469.19610%31%35%
.247.408.1619%29%41%
#8Tristan GrayTristan GrayLHB
.244.369.1256%40%28%
.251.349.0985%41%27%
.213.325.1125%36%38%
.200.305.1055%35%46%
.190.280.0905%33%49%
.207.316.1096%35%41%
.207.299.0925%33%42%
.187.260.0735%30%49%
#9Luke KeaschallLuke KeaschallRHB
.258.355.0973%31%14%
.266.336.0703%31%13%
.226.313.0873%27%19%
.186.257.0713%23%26%
.177.236.0592%22%28%
.192.266.0743%23%23%
.240.315.0753%27%19%
.217.274.0573%25%22%
NYY Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
NYY hitters vsMike Paredes(MIN)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Trent GrishamTrent GrishamLHB
.244.438.19413%49%14%
.251.414.16310%50%13%
.213.386.17311%43%19%
.200.362.16211%43%23%
.190.333.14310%41%24%
.207.375.16812%42%20%
.207.355.14811%40%21%
.187.309.12210%37%24%
#2Ben RiceBen RiceLHB
.282.606.32416%50%22%
.291.572.28112%51%21%
.247.533.28613%44%30%
.232.501.26913%43%36%
.220.459.23912%41%38%
.240.518.27814%42%32%
.240.490.25013%40%33%
.217.426.20911%37%38%
#3Jasson DomínguezJasson DomínguezSHB
.224.414.1903%41%24%
.230.391.1612%41%22%
.196.364.1683%36%32%
.175.326.1513%34%40%
.166.299.1332%32%43%
.181.337.1563%33%36%
.200.352.1523%35%33%
.181.306.1252%32%39%
#4Cody BellingerCody BellingerLHB
.267.468.2018%40%16%
.274.442.1686%41%15%
.234.411.1777%35%22%
.219.386.1677%35%26%
.208.355.1476%33%28%
.227.400.1737%34%24%
.227.378.1517%32%24%
.205.329.1246%30%28%
#5Paul GoldschmidtPaul GoldschmidtRHB
.292.570.27813%41%21%
.300.539.23910%42%20%
.256.502.24611%36%28%
.210.413.20310%32%39%
.199.379.1809%30%41%
.217.427.21010%31%35%
.272.505.23312%37%28%
.246.439.19310%34%33%
#6Jazz Chisholm Jr.Jazz Chisholm Jr.LHB
.236.433.19710%43%27%
.243.409.1667%44%26%
.207.381.1748%38%37%
.194.358.1648%38%44%
.184.328.1447%36%47%
.201.371.1708%37%40%
.201.350.1498%35%40%
.182.305.1237%32%47%
#7Ryan McMahonRyan McMahonLHB
.221.389.16813%52%27%
.227.367.14010%53%25%
.193.342.14911%46%36%
.181.321.14011%46%44%
.172.295.12310%43%47%
.187.333.14611%45%39%
.188.315.12710%42%40%
.170.274.1049%39%47%
#8José CaballeroJosé CaballeroRHB
.258.416.1584%28%23%
.266.393.1273%28%22%
.226.366.1403%24%31%
.186.301.1153%21%43%
.177.276.0992%20%46%
.192.312.1203%21%38%
.240.368.1283%25%31%
.217.320.1033%23%36%
#9Austin WellsAustin WellsLHB
.161.254.0937%48%26%
.165.240.0755%49%24%
.141.223.0826%42%35%
.132.210.0786%42%42%
.125.192.0675%40%44%
.137.217.0806%41%37%
.137.205.0686%39%38%
.124.179.0555%36%44%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Kody Clemens
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M48.000292N/A14N/A.241.303.474.233.3356.5%92.7
Ben Rice
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M50.000347N/A23N/A.269.360.561.292.39012.1%91.7
Trent Grisham
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+546M39.000264N/A8N/A.232.341.406.229.33214.4%91.7
Austin Wells
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+626M39.000194N/A4N/A.153.253.235.217.22511.9%91.4
Tristan Gray
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+774M36.000169N/A4N/A.232.274.342.179.2715.3%90.5
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+782M28.000326N/A12N/A.225.307.401.176.31210.4%90.5
Josh Bell
SHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+790M36.000336N/A11N/A.244.301.412.168.3127.1%89.5
Ryan McMahon
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+863M35.000202N/A8N/A.210.269.360.167.2797.4%90.2
Cody Bellinger
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1109M42.000361N/A11N/A.254.352.433.179.34513.6%89.0
Brooks Lee
SHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1229M32.000334N/A14N/A.251.306.440.189.3256.9%87.9
Trevor Larnach
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1158M35.000261N/A5N/A.291.381.436.154.36211.5%89.8
Victor Caratini
SHB#6 · Secondary Power+1175M34.000243N/A7N/A.239.337.373.145.31610.3%89.6
Ryan Kreidler
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+1158M34.000116N/A5N/A.279.353.490.000.3679.5%89.8
Jasson Domínguez
SHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1192M33.000100N/A3N/A.213.253.383.131.2774.0%89.3
Paul Goldschmidt
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1192M33.000233N/A14N/A.278.339.528.129.3737.3%89.2
José Caballero
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M31.000268N/A8N/A.246.303.385.111.3046.0%88.8
Luke Keaschall
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1374M36.000321N/A3N/A.246.333.329.083.30110.0%84.7
Royce Lewis
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1900M.000218N/A8N/A.211.289.376.000.2959.2%0.0
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Mike Paredes
Mike Paredes
MIN · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season22.096.264.437.1731.3652.057.3%19.5%11.5%19.5%4.507.1%51.8%30.6%
vs LHB16.368.206.274.302.0961.1021.107.4%19.5%5.9%19.5%2.207.1%51.8%30.6%
vs RHB9.042.263.362.421.1581.5622.009.5%19.5%21.4%19.5%9.007.1%51.8%30.6%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3022.096.264.437.1731.3652.057.3%19.5%11.5%19.5%4.507.1%51.8%30.6%
L1514.365.300.500.2001.6142.517.7%19.5%7.7%19.5%3.147.1%51.8%30.6%
Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole
NYY · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season42.7180.243.385.1421.1981.695.6%17.7%22.8%10.4%17.7%8.657.5%37.7%33.6%
vs LHB25.7107.220.326.400.1801.1362.106.5%17.7%22.4%17.7%8.427.5%37.7%33.6%
vs RHB11.753.280.309.340.0601.4610.775.7%17.7%18.9%17.7%7.717.5%37.7%33.6%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3024.7112.276.419.1431.4251.825.4%17.7%24.1%17.7%9.857.5%37.7%33.6%
L1514.768.318.500.1821.5642.452.9%17.7%25.0%17.7%10.437.5%37.7%33.6%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Mike Paredes
Mike Paredes
MIN · RHP · 4 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam39.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%93.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup23.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper22.3%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%78.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter15.4%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole
NYY · RHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball44.0%.250.355.500.2500.0%18.1%25.4%23.6%0.0%93.50.0%39.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider18.5%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup15.5%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%83.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Knuckle Curve14.3%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%81.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker7.8%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%90.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-07-03 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Jul 2026