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STL@NYY
FINAL
NYY
Game 1 of 15 Tue · Aug 4, 11:05 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · STL vs Ryan Weathers · NYY vs Hunter Dobbins

#1Ben Rice
Ben RiceLHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
NYY· DHvs STL RHP Dobbins
🔥 Elite
Test
82
Ceil
76
Likely
68
kHR
86
Zone
53
Form
100%
EV
92.1
Brl%
15.5%
ISO
.293
xwOBA
.375
xwOBAc
.526
SwStr%
11.1%
PullBrl
7.2%
SwtSp%
39.5%
HH%
48.1%
elite Barrel 16%, elite ISO .293, pull-side power+424MODEL
#2Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr.LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
NYY· 1Bvs STL RHP Dobbins
🟢 Strong
Test
70
Ceil
53
Likely
54
kHR
75
Zone
43
Form
100%
EV
91.7
Brl%
12.8%
ISO
.283
xwOBA
.357
xwOBAc
.548
SwStr%
10.5%
PullBrl
5.4%
SwtSp%
34.9%
HH%
46.2%
strong Barrel 13%, elite ISO .283+458MODEL
#3Blaze Jordan
Blaze JordanRHB#6 · Secondary Power
STL· 3Bvs NYY LHP Weathers
🟡 Viable
Test
64
Ceil
59
Likely
53
kHR
72
Zone
36
Form
87%
EV
93.1
Brl%
13.0%
ISO
.206
xwOBA
.355
xwOBAc
.518
SwStr%
16.2%
PullBrl
5.2%
SwtSp%
34.2%
HH%
48.1%
strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .206 (matchup soft)+521MODEL
#4Alec Burleson
Alec BurlesonLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
STL· 1Bvs NYY LHP Weathers
🟠 Longshot
Test
60
Ceil
56
Likely
53
kHR
68
Zone
43
Form
76%
EV
91.8
Brl%
11.7%
ISO
.192
xwOBA
.385
xwOBAc
.570
SwStr%
11.1%
PullBrl
5.6%
SwtSp%
35.1%
HH%
49.0%
strong Barrel 12% (matchup soft)+604MODEL
#5Bryan Torres
Bryan TorresLHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot
STL· LFvs NYY LHP Weathers
🟠 Longshot
Test
56
Ceil
51
Likely
48
kHR
63
Zone
39
Form
73%
EV
90.7
Brl%
9.4%
ISO
.189
xwOBA
.348
xwOBAc
.461
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.9%
SwtSp%
32.8%
HH%
44.2%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+699MODEL
#6Spencer Jones
Spencer JonesLHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
NYY· RFvs STL RHP Dobbins
🟠 Longshot
Test
56
Ceil
49
Likely
47
kHR
62
Zone
36
Form
75%
EV
90.6
Brl%
9.2%
ISO
.183
xwOBA
.352
xwOBAc
.423
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.8%
SwtSp%
32.7%
HH%
43.7%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+706MODEL
#7Trent Grisham
Trent GrishamLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
NYY· CFvs STL RHP Dobbins
🟠 Longshot
Test
52
Ceil
49
Likely
47
kHR
61
Zone
40
Form
67%
EV
90.9
Brl%
9.6%
ISO
.173
xwOBA
.341
xwOBAc
.463
SwStr%
6.9%
PullBrl
4.4%
SwtSp%
33.3%
HH%
44.8%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+742MODEL
#8Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.LHB#6 · Secondary Power
NYY· 2Bvs STL RHP Dobbins
🟠 Longshot
Test
52
Ceil
47
Likely
44
kHR
60
Zone
29
Form
71%
EV
90.9
Brl%
9.3%
ISO
.177
xwOBA
.289
xwOBAc
.396
SwStr%
14.2%
PullBrl
5.1%
SwtSp%
28.2%
HH%
41.9%
pull-side power (matchup soft)+750MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — STL
vs Ryan Weathers (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

STLSTL
vs Ryan Weathers (NYY)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — NYY
vs Hunter Dobbins (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

NYYNYY
vs Hunter Dobbins (STL)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
STL + NYY · Combined Hitter Matrix
Both lineups in one table · sticky HITTER + TEAM columns · filter to one side with the chips
STLvsNYY

STL + NYY hitters

combined matrix · click any header to sort · click a row for detail
HitterTeamHandMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
STL Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
STL hitters vsRyan Weathers(NYY)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1JJ WetherholtJJ WetherholtLHB
.261.420.1598%48%18%
.269.397.1286%49%17%
.229.370.1417%42%24%
.188.304.1166%37%33%
.179.279.1005%35%35%
.195.315.1206%36%29%
.243.372.1297%42%24%
.220.324.1046%39%28%
#2Iván HerreraIván HerreraRHB
.254.407.1536%43%17%
.261.385.1245%44%16%
.223.358.1355%38%23%
.208.336.1285%37%28%
.198.309.1115%35%30%
.216.348.1325%37%25%
.216.329.1135%35%26%
.195.287.0924%32%30%
#3Alec BurlesonAlec BurlesonLHB
.298.495.19712%53%18%
.307.467.1609%54%17%
.261.435.17410%46%25%
.214.358.1449%40%34%
.204.329.1258%38%36%
.222.371.1499%39%30%
.278.438.16011%47%25%
.251.381.13010%43%29%
#4Nelson VelázquezNelson VelázquezRHB
.225.463.23811%70%32%
.231.438.2079%71%30%
.197.408.21110%61%43%
.184.383.19910%61%52%
.175.351.1769%58%55%
.191.396.20510%60%46%
.191.375.18410%57%47%
.173.326.1538%52%55%
#5Masyn WinnMasyn WinnRHB
.253.348.0953%38%19%
.260.328.0683%39%18%
.222.306.0843%34%26%
.208.287.0793%34%32%
.197.264.0673%32%34%
.215.298.0833%33%28%
.215.281.0663%31%29%
.195.245.0503%29%34%
#6Blaze JordanBlaze JordanRHB
.252.380.1289%49%17%
.259.359.1007%50%16%
.221.334.1138%43%24%
.207.314.1078%43%28%
.197.288.0917%40%30%
.214.325.1118%42%25%
.214.308.0947%39%26%
.194.268.0747%36%30%
#7Nathan ChurchNathan ChurchLHB
.239.380.1418%35%20%
.246.359.1136%36%19%
.210.334.1247%31%27%
.172.275.1036%27%36%
.164.253.0895%25%39%
.178.285.1076%26%33%
.223.337.1147%31%27%
.202.293.0916%29%31%
#8Pedro PagésPedro PagésRHB
.214.348.1346%41%23%
.220.328.1085%42%22%
.188.306.1185%36%31%
.176.287.1115%36%37%
.167.264.0975%34%40%
.182.298.1165%35%34%
.182.281.0995%33%34%
.165.245.0804%30%40%
#9Bryan TorresBryan TorresLHB
.253.472.2197%36%17%
.260.446.1865%36%16%
.222.415.1936%31%22%
.182.342.1605%27%31%
.173.314.1414%26%33%
.188.354.1665%27%27%
.236.418.1826%32%22%
.213.364.1515%29%26%
NYY Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
NYY hitters vsHunter Dobbins(STL)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Trent GrishamTrent GrishamLHB
.222.404.18211%48%15%
.228.381.1538%49%14%
.194.355.1619%42%20%
.182.334.1529%42%24%
.173.306.1338%40%26%
.188.346.1589%41%22%
.188.327.1399%39%22%
.170.284.1148%36%26%
#2Ben RiceBen RiceLHB
.279.606.32717%52%22%
.287.572.28513%53%21%
.245.533.28815%46%30%
.229.501.27215%46%36%
.218.459.24113%43%38%
.237.518.28115%44%32%
.238.490.25214%42%33%
.215.426.21113%39%38%
#3Luis García Jr.Luis García Jr.LHB
.297.605.30814%50%17%
.306.571.26511%50%16%
.260.532.27212%44%22%
.244.500.25612%43%27%
.232.459.22711%41%29%
.253.517.26412%42%24%
.253.489.23612%40%25%
.229.426.19710%37%29%
#4Heliot RamosHeliot RamosRHB
.277.458.18115%52%24%
.285.432.14712%53%23%
.243.403.16013%46%33%
.199.332.13311%40%45%
.189.304.11510%38%48%
.206.343.13712%39%40%
.258.406.14814%46%33%
.233.353.12012%43%38%
#5Spencer JonesSpencer JonesLHB
.249.468.21914%71%34%
.256.442.18611%72%32%
.218.411.19312%62%46%
.204.386.18212%62%55%
.194.355.16111%59%59%
.212.400.18812%61%50%
.212.378.16611%57%51%
.191.329.13810%53%59%
#6Jazz Chisholm Jr.Jazz Chisholm Jr.LHB
.231.430.19911%45%27%
.238.406.1688%46%25%
.202.378.1769%39%36%
.189.355.1669%39%44%
.180.326.1468%37%47%
.196.368.1729%38%39%
.196.348.1529%36%40%
.178.302.1248%33%47%
#7Ryan McMahonRyan McMahonLHB
.217.390.17312%55%27%
.224.368.1449%56%25%
.190.343.15310%48%36%
.178.322.14410%48%43%
.170.296.1269%45%46%
.185.334.14910%47%39%
.185.316.13110%45%40%
.167.274.1079%41%46%
#8George Lombard Jr.George Lombard Jr.RHB
#9Ali SánchezAli SánchezRHB
.287.393.1063%28%18%
.295.371.0762%29%17%
.251.346.0952%25%24%
.206.285.0792%22%33%
.196.261.0652%21%36%
.213.295.0822%21%30%
.267.348.0812%25%25%
.241.303.0622%23%29%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Ben Rice
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M53.000457N/A31N/A.266.354.561.293.38811.6%92.1
Luis García Jr.
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+458M43.000374N/A23N/A.283.313.560.283.3704.3%91.7
Blaze Jordan
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+521M36.000134N/A1N/A.240.261.352.206.2643.7%93.1
Alec Burleson
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+604M43.000472N/A15N/A.284.347.458.192.3498.3%91.8
Bryan Torres
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+699M39.00094N/A4N/A.241.290.437.189.3156.4%90.7
Spencer Jones
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+706M36.000109N/A5N/A.237.321.433.183.33111.0%90.6
Trent Grisham
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+742M40.000365N/A11N/A.211.313.374.173.30613.2%90.9
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+750M29.000413N/A16N/A.220.295.398.177.3029.7%90.9
George Lombard Jr.
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+713M33.000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A.115N/AN/A92.2
Nelson Velázquez
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+853M38.00079N/A4N/A.214.291.429.166.3128.9%90.2
Ryan McMahon
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+853M35.000262N/A9N/A.207.268.361.167.2786.9%90.2
JJ Wetherholt
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1158M39.000479N/A16N/A.249.347.389.139.32910.2%89.7
Iván Herrera
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1210M36.000493N/A12N/A.242.357.377.134.33010.3%89.1
Pedro Pagés
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1175M35.000168N/A4N/A.204.250.322.133.2534.8%89.3
Heliot Ramos
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1158M34.000306N/A9N/A.264.304.424.144.3155.2%89.6
Masyn Winn
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1351M32.000425N/A4N/A.241.320.322.079.2919.2%88.0
Nathan Church
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+1329M32.000303N/A8N/A.228.272.352.071.2745.0%87.8
Ali Sánchez
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1287M30.00059N/A1N/A.273.305.364.087.2951.7%88.2
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Hunter Dobbins
Hunter Dobbins
STL · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season26.0111.232.354.1221.3141.389.9%22.8%19.8%22.8%7.627.1%44.4%24.2%
vs LHB17.371.231.273.277.0461.2110.528.5%22.8%19.7%22.8%7.277.1%44.4%24.2%
vs RHB16.372.284.357.418.1341.4731.656.9%22.8%25.0%22.8%9.927.1%44.4%24.2%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3026.0111.232.354.1221.3141.389.9%22.8%19.8%22.8%7.627.1%44.4%24.2%
L1517.372.215.308.0931.1621.048.3%22.8%18.1%22.8%6.757.1%44.4%24.2%
Ryan Weathers
Ryan Weathers
NYY · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season121.0503.245.354.1091.22171.266.8%27.5%26.2%18.3%27.5%9.829.1%42.5%22.2%
vs LHB26.3111.280.314.364.0841.2931.033.6%27.5%28.8%27.5%10.949.1%42.5%22.2%
vs RHB87.7371.234.313.357.1231.24141.447.8%27.5%25.3%27.5%9.659.1%42.5%22.2%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3028.7117.239.266.0271.1510.316.0%27.5%23.9%27.5%8.799.1%42.5%22.2%
L1518.771.200.200.0000.9600.007.0%27.5%23.9%27.5%8.209.1%42.5%22.2%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Hunter Dobbins
Hunter Dobbins
STL · RHP · 6 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam31.8%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%95.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider16.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%88.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper16.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker13.8%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%94.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Splitter12.0%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%88.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball9.4%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%79.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Ryan Weathers
Ryan Weathers
NYY · LHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Changeup25.0%.203.240.322.1190.0%35.1%26.8%19.0%0.0%85.70.0%36.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam Fastball23.9%.288.423.615.3270.0%21.2%23.3%18.2%0.0%95.80.0%53.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper20.6%.226.281.323.0970.0%39.7%38.6%30.7%0.0%81.20.0%25.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker18.7%.283.352.359.0760.0%8.1%8.7%15.5%0.0%94.10.0%45.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider11.8%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-08-04 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Aug 2026