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WSH
WSH@PHI
FINAL
PHI
Game 1 of 15 Tue · Aug 4, 10:40 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · WSH vs Jesús Luzardo · PHI vs Carson Palmquist

#1Abimelec Ortiz
Abimelec OrtizLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
WSH· PHvs PHI LHP Luzardo
🔥 Elite
Test
88
Ceil
118
Likely
85
kHR
96
Zone
54
Form
100%
EV
94.0
Brl%
20.0%
ISO
.667
xwOBA
.582
xwOBAc
.833
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
10.0%
SwtSp%
40.0%
HH%
60.0%
elite Barrel 20%, elite ISO .667, 94.0 EV+424MODEL
#2Kyle Schwarber
Kyle SchwarberLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
PHI· DHvs WSH LHP Palmquist
🔥 Elite
Test
88
Ceil
120
Likely
83
kHR
93
Zone
46
Form
100%
EV
93.3
Brl%
17.7%
ISO
.286
xwOBA
.367
xwOBAc
.483
SwStr%
15.4%
PullBrl
9.6%
SwtSp%
40.3%
HH%
52.4%
elite Barrel 18%, elite ISO .286, 93.3 EV+424MODEL
#3CJ Abrams
CJ AbramsLHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
WSH· DHvs PHI LHP Luzardo
🟡 Viable
Test
62
Ceil
76
Likely
57
kHR
68
Zone
32
Form
100%
EV
89.7
Brl%
10.9%
ISO
.265
xwOBA
.347
xwOBAc
.487
SwStr%
14.5%
PullBrl
4.8%
SwtSp%
34.2%
HH%
42.5%
strong Barrel 11%, elite ISO .265 (matchup soft)+599MODEL
#4Daylen Lile
Daylen LileLHB#7 · Secondary Power
WSH· LFvs PHI LHP Luzardo
🟠 Longshot
Test
50
Ceil
70
Likely
51
kHR
57
Zone
32
Form
60%
EV
88.2
Brl%
8.1%
ISO
.173
xwOBA
.315
xwOBAc
.463
SwStr%
12.9%
PullBrl
3.4%
SwtSp%
36.6%
HH%
35.8%
pull-side power, park/wind boost (matchup soft)+825MODEL
#5Brandon Marsh
Brandon MarshLHB#7 · Secondary Power
PHI· LFvs WSH LHP Palmquist
🟠 Longshot
Test
48
Ceil
87
Likely
56
kHR
57
Zone
31
Form
67%
EV
89.5
Brl%
8.8%
ISO
.170
xwOBA
.309
xwOBAc
.471
SwStr%
13.7%
PullBrl
3.4%
SwtSp%
42.7%
HH%
44.4%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+825MODEL
#6Dylan Crews
Dylan CrewsRHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
WSH· RFvs PHI LHP Luzardo
🔴 Fade
Test
34
Ceil
72
Likely
48
kHR
47
Zone
32
Form
56%
EV
89.6
Brl%
7.2%
ISO
.144
xwOBA
.320
xwOBAc
.384
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
2.9%
SwtSp%
32.2%
HH%
40.8%
off-platoon+1141MODEL
#7José Tena
José TenaLHB#6 · Secondary Power
WSH· PHvs PHI LHP Luzardo
🔴 Fade
Test
34
Ceil
70
Likely
46
kHR
45
Zone
30
Form
22%
EV
88.8
Brl%
5.6%
ISO
.112
xwOBA
.330
xwOBAc
.420
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
2.2%
SwtSp%
31.7%
HH%
38.4%
off-platoon+1210MODEL
#8Trea Turner
Trea TurnerRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
PHI· SSvs WSH LHP Palmquist
🔴 Fade
Test
34
Ceil
84
Likely
50
kHR
46
Zone
25
Form
57%
EV
88.8
Brl%
6.6%
ISO
.152
xwOBA
.300
xwOBAc
.441
SwStr%
14.0%
PullBrl
2.2%
SwtSp%
33.4%
HH%
41.8%
off-platoon+1175MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — WSH
vs Jesús Luzardo (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

WSHWSH
vs Jesús Luzardo (PHI)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — PHI
vs Carson Palmquist (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

PHIPHI
vs Carson Palmquist (WSH)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
WSH + PHI · Combined Hitter Matrix
Both lineups in one table · sticky HITTER + TEAM columns · filter to one side with the chips
WSHvsPHI

WSH + PHI hitters

combined matrix · click any header to sort · click a row for detail
HitterTeamHandMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
WSH Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
WSH hitters vsJesús Luzardo(PHI)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Dylan CrewsDylan CrewsRHB
.237.416.17911%48%26%
.244.393.1499%49%24%
.208.366.15810%42%35%
.195.344.14910%42%42%
.185.315.1309%40%45%
.202.356.15410%41%37%
.202.336.1349%39%38%
.182.293.1118%36%45%
#2Andrés ChaparroAndrés ChaparroRHB
.231.540.30916%53%25%
.238.510.27213%54%24%
.202.475.27314%47%34%
.189.446.25714%47%41%
.180.410.23012%44%44%
.196.462.26614%46%37%
.196.437.24114%43%38%
.178.380.20212%40%44%
#3Abimelec OrtizAbimelec OrtizLHB
.5251.080.5000%108%0%
.5401.020.4800%110%0%
.460.950.4900%95%0%
.377.782.4050%83%0%
.359.718.3590%78%0%
.391.810.4190%81%0%
.489.957.4680%96%0%
.442.832.3900%88%0%
#4CJ AbramsCJ AbramsLHB
.301.598.29712%46%24%
.310.565.2559%47%23%
.264.526.26210%41%33%
.217.433.2169%35%45%
.206.398.1928%33%48%
.224.449.2259%35%40%
.281.530.24911%41%33%
.254.461.20710%38%38%
#5Harry FordHarry FordRHB
.175.360.1857%25%23%
.180.340.1605%26%21%
.154.316.1626%22%31%
.144.297.1536%22%37%
.137.273.1365%21%39%
.149.308.1596%22%33%
.149.291.1425%21%34%
.135.253.1185%19%39%
#6José TenaJosé TenaLHB
.256.428.1729%54%29%
.264.404.1407%55%28%
.224.376.1528%47%40%
.184.310.1267%41%54%
.175.284.1096%39%58%
.191.321.1307%40%49%
.239.379.1408%48%40%
.216.329.1137%44%46%
#7Daylen LileDaylen LileLHB
.260.448.1889%38%20%
.268.423.1557%39%19%
.228.394.1668%33%27%
.187.325.1387%29%37%
.178.298.1206%27%39%
.194.336.1427%28%33%
.242.397.1558%34%27%
.219.345.1267%31%31%
#8Nasim NuñezNasim NuñezSHB
.252.303.05144%23%18%
.259.287.02834%23%17%
.221.267.04638%20%24%
.197.239.04236%19%31%
.187.219.03232%18%33%
.204.247.04337%19%28%
.226.259.03338%20%25%
.204.225.02134%18%30%
#9Jorbit VivasJorbit VivasLHB
.253.362.1094%27%15%
.260.342.0823%28%14%
.222.318.0963%24%21%
.182.262.0803%21%28%
.173.240.0673%20%30%
.188.271.0833%20%25%
.236.321.0853%24%21%
.213.279.0663%22%24%
PHI Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
PHI hitters vsCarson Palmquist(WSH)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Kyle SchwarberKyle SchwarberLHB
.259.577.31820%57%30%
.267.545.27815%58%28%
.227.507.28017%50%40%
.186.418.23215%43%55%
.177.383.20613%41%59%
.193.432.23915%42%50%
.241.511.27018%50%41%
.218.444.22616%46%47%
#2Trea TurnerTrea TurnerRHB
.263.436.1737%45%23%
.270.412.1426%45%22%
.230.384.1546%39%31%
.215.361.1466%39%38%
.205.331.1266%37%40%
.223.373.1507%38%34%
.223.353.1306%36%35%
.202.307.1055%33%40%
#3Derek HillDerek HillRHB
.252.459.20712%38%29%
.259.433.1749%39%28%
.221.404.18311%33%40%
.207.379.17211%33%48%
.197.348.1519%31%51%
.214.393.17911%33%43%
.214.371.15710%31%44%
.194.323.1299%28%51%
#4Luis ArraezLuis ArraezLHB
.340.475.13577%22%7%
.350.449.09960%22%6%
.298.418.12067%19%9%
.244.344.10058%17%13%
.233.316.08352%16%13%
.253.356.10359%16%11%
.317.421.10470%19%9%
.286.366.08062%18%11%
#5Alec BohmAlec BohmRHB
.237.392.1556%46%14%
.244.370.1264%46%14%
.208.345.1375%40%20%
.195.324.1295%40%24%
.185.297.1124%38%25%
.202.335.1335%39%21%
.202.317.1155%37%22%
.182.276.0944%34%25%
#6J.T. RealmutoJ.T. RealmutoRHB
.236.391.1556%45%21%
.243.369.1265%46%19%
.207.344.1375%40%28%
.194.323.1295%40%33%
.184.296.1125%37%36%
.201.334.1335%39%30%
.201.316.1155%37%31%
.182.275.0934%34%36%
#7Brandon MarshBrandon MarshLHB
.294.486.19210%48%22%
.302.459.1578%49%21%
.258.427.1698%42%30%
.211.352.1417%37%41%
.201.323.1227%35%44%
.219.364.1457%36%37%
.274.431.1579%43%30%
.248.374.1268%39%35%
#8Bryson StottBryson StottLHB
.265.440.1758%42%16%
.272.415.1436%43%15%
.232.387.1557%37%22%
.190.318.1286%32%30%
.181.292.1115%30%32%
.197.330.1336%32%27%
.246.389.1437%37%22%
.223.339.1166%34%26%
#9Justin CrawfordJustin CrawfordLHB
.274.370.09688%36%16%
.282.350.06868%36%15%
.240.326.08676%31%22%
.197.268.07166%27%30%
.187.246.05959%26%32%
.204.278.07468%27%27%
.255.328.07380%32%22%
.231.285.05471%29%25%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Abimelec Ortiz
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M54.0002N/AN/AN/A.500.5001.000.667.6300.0%94.0
Kyle Schwarber
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M46.000470N/A33N/A.247.364.534.286.38414.7%93.3
CJ Abrams
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+599M32.000466N/A28N/A.287.363.554.265.3909.0%89.7
Daylen Lile
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+825M32.000461N/A13N/A.248.299.415.173.3106.1%88.2
Brandon Marsh
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+825M31.000420N/A16N/A.280.319.450.170.3315.2%89.5
Dylan Crews
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1141M32.000252N/A9N/A.226.306.385.144.3077.5%89.6
José Tena
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1210M30.000216N/A5N/A.244.310.396.112.3117.9%88.8
Trea Turner
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1175M25.000482N/A16N/A.250.299.404.152.3086.0%88.8
Derek Hill
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1210M28.000161N/A8N/A.240.297.425.112.3166.8%88.8
Alec Bohm
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1210M33.000437N/A13N/A.226.284.363.136.2866.2%90.6
J.T. Realmuto
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1175M29.000307N/A8N/A.225.306.362.127.2987.8%89.2
Bryson Stott
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1158M34.000409N/A8N/A.252.317.407.153.3178.3%89.4
Andrés Chaparro
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1308M27.00098N/A6N/A.220.347.500.076.36813.3%87.9
Harry Ford
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1210M35.00029N/A1N/A.167.310.333.133.29713.8%87.6
Nasim Nuñez
SHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1472M30.000364N/A1N/A.240.321.281.040.27810.4%84.5
Jorbit Vivas
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1267M28.000237N/A3N/A.241.325.335.089.2989.7%88.2
Luis Arraez
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1447M34.000464N/A4N/A.324.360.440.116.3455.4%87.0
Justin Crawford
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1210M33.000327N/A2N/A.261.308.343.133.2905.5%87.6
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Carson Palmquist
Carson Palmquist
WSH · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season10.755.362.426.0642.1510.8410.9%23.4%23.6%23.4%10.974.1%24.5%28.6%
vs LHB7.737.273.341.364.0911.7011.1710.8%23.4%21.6%23.4%9.394.1%24.5%28.6%
vs RHB8.341.324.332.324.0001.9200.009.8%23.4%17.1%23.4%7.564.1%24.5%28.6%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L307.343.417.500.0832.7411.2311.6%23.4%23.3%23.4%12.274.1%24.5%28.6%
L153.323.471.471.0003.9400.0021.7%23.4%13.0%23.4%8.104.1%24.5%28.6%
Jesús Luzardo
Jesús Luzardo
PHI · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season136.7566.226.296.0701.16120.797.6%31.4%29.0%23.8%31.4%10.805.8%31.5%20.9%
vs LHB38.7146.152.250.174.0220.7510.235.5%31.4%32.9%31.4%11.175.8%31.5%20.9%
vs RHB96.3420.247.306.332.0851.35111.038.3%31.4%27.6%31.4%10.845.8%31.5%20.9%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3033.3129.155.233.0780.8430.817.8%31.4%30.2%31.4%10.535.8%31.5%20.9%
L1521.383.187.267.0800.9420.847.2%31.4%25.3%31.4%8.865.8%31.5%20.9%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Carson Palmquist
Carson Palmquist
WSH · LHP · 4 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Sweeper41.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%73.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker32.6%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%90.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam15.7%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%91.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter9.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Jesús Luzardo
Jesús Luzardo
PHI · LHP · 4 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Sweeper37.8%.119.180.182.0630.0%48.0%52.3%28.9%0.0%86.20.0%22.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam Fastball24.6%.298.355.444.1460.0%16.7%23.6%17.1%0.0%97.00.0%34.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup18.9%.279.350.462.1830.0%38.4%23.9%20.9%0.0%86.10.0%26.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker18.8%.284.357.400.1160.0%12.0%5.5%25.0%0.0%95.90.0%40.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-08-04 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Aug 2026