Clutch Algorithm
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CIN
CIN@PIT
IN PROGRESS
PIT
Game 4 of 15 Sat · Jun 27, 8:05 PM
CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · CIN vs Jared Jones · PIT vs Chase Burns

#1Eugenio Suárez
Eugenio SuárezRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
CIN· DHvs PIT RHP Jones
🟢 Strong
Test
79
Ceil
71
Likely
66
kHR
84
Zone
54
Form
100%
EV
93.5
Brl%
14.9%
ISO
.298
xwOBA
.399
xwOBAc
.491
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
6.5%
SwtSp%
34.5%
HH%
52.3%
elite Barrel 15%, elite ISO .298, 93.5 EV+424MODEL
#2Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel LoweLHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
CIN· 1Bvs PIT RHP Jones
🟢 Strong
Test
75
Ceil
61
Likely
58
kHR
77
Zone
44
Form
100%
EV
90.6
Brl%
12.0%
ISO
.262
xwOBA
.345
xwOBAc
.486
SwStr%
16.9%
PullBrl
5.6%
SwtSp%
36.1%
HH%
45.8%
strong Barrel 12%, elite ISO .262, pull-side power+427MODEL
#3Brandon Lowe
Brandon LoweLHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
PIT· 2Bvs CIN RHP Burns
🟢 Strong
Test
75
Ceil
71
Likely
61
kHR
77
Zone
44
Form
100%
EV
90.6
Brl%
12.0%
ISO
.262
xwOBA
.345
xwOBAc
.486
SwStr%
16.9%
PullBrl
5.6%
SwtSp%
36.1%
HH%
45.8%
strong Barrel 12%, elite ISO .262, pull-side power+427MODEL
#4Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La CruzSHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
CIN· SSvs PIT RHP Jones
🟡 Viable
Test
61
Ceil
52
Likely
53
kHR
73
Zone
41
Form
90%
EV
94.4
Brl%
14.4%
ISO
.219
xwOBA
.361
xwOBAc
.514
SwStr%
11.5%
PullBrl
4.4%
SwtSp%
37.6%
HH%
53.3%
elite Barrel 14%, power ISO .219 (matchup soft)+513MODEL
#5Sal Stewart
Sal StewartRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
CIN· 3Bvs PIT RHP Jones
🟠 Longshot
Test
57
Ceil
46
Likely
50
kHR
70
Zone
43
Form
87%
EV
90.7
Brl%
15.0%
ISO
.196
xwOBA
.355
xwOBAc
.487
SwStr%
13.1%
PullBrl
5.0%
SwtSp%
35.8%
HH%
40.6%
elite Barrel 15% (matchup soft)+569MODEL
#6Noelvi Marte
Noelvi MarteRHB#6 · Secondary Power
CIN· RFvs PIT RHP Jones
🟠 Longshot
Test
57
Ceil
45
Likely
48
kHR
65
Zone
42
Form
74%
EV
91.3
Brl%
10.6%
ISO
.194
xwOBA
.368
xwOBAc
.547
SwStr%
9.9%
PullBrl
5.5%
SwtSp%
32.3%
HH%
45.9%
strong Barrel 11% (matchup soft)+655MODEL
#7JJ Bleday
JJ BledayLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
CIN· LFvs PIT RHP Jones
🟠 Longshot
Test
53
Ceil
43
Likely
45
kHR
61
Zone
38
Form
75%
EV
90.8
Brl%
9.6%
ISO
.192
xwOBA
.350
xwOBAc
.414
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
4.0%
SwtSp%
32.9%
HH%
44.4%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+728MODEL
#8Bryan Reynolds
Bryan ReynoldsSHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
PIT· LFvs CIN RHP Burns
🟠 Longshot
Test
53
Ceil
53
Likely
48
kHR
62
Zone
36
Form
70%
EV
91.4
Brl%
10.4%
ISO
.191
xwOBA
.374
xwOBAc
.501
SwStr%
12.7%
PullBrl
4.1%
SwtSp%
36.2%
HH%
48.0%
strong Barrel 10% (matchup soft)+706MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — CIN
vs Jared Jones (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

CINCIN
vs Jared Jones (PIT)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — PIT
vs Chase Burns (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

PITPIT
vs Chase Burns (CIN)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
CIN vs Jared Jones
9 hitters · primary stack for the away offense
CIN

CIN hitters

vsJared Jones(PITPIT)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
RHBCINvs PIT RHP Jones#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M78.871.254.000100%83.92,562392.298.399.49111.3%6.5%93.514.9%34.5%34.0%52.3%17.466
LHBCINvs PIT RHP Jones#5 · Premium RBI/Power+427M74.861.344.000100%77.41,310212.262.345.48616.9%5.6%90.612.0%36.1%35.6%45.8%17.458
SHBCINvs PIT RHP Jones#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+513M60.852.341.00090%72.61,053163.219.361.51411.5%4.4%94.414.4%37.6%32.1%53.3%12.253
RHBCINvs PIT RHP Jones#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+569M56.846.243.00087%70.21,353226.196.355.48713.1%5.0%90.715.0%35.8%27.5%40.6%14.850
RHBCINvs PIT RHP Jones#6 · Secondary Power+655M56.844.742.00074%65.11,322263.194.368.5479.9%5.5%91.310.6%32.3%24.8%45.9%11.448
LHBCINvs PIT RHP Jones#3 · Premium RBI/Power+728M52.842.738.00075%61.41,342216.192.350.41411.3%4.0%90.89.6%32.9%31.8%44.4%15.545
RHBCINvs PIT RHP Jones#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1248M30.836.033.00034%43.11,178243.113.301.41311.3%2.3%88.85.7%31.7%30.3%38.5%14.035
RHBCINvs PIT RHP Jones#7 · Secondary Power+1329M28.834.831.00034%40.31,299230.091.305.39811.3%1.8%88.34.5%31.4%29.8%36.8%13.633
SHBCINvs PIT RHP Jones#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1447M28.831.130.0008%37.123841.037.284.37211.3%0.8%86.92.0%30.6%28.7%32.8%12.731
PIT vs Chase Burns
9 hitters · primary stack for the home offense
PIT

PIT hitters

vsChase Burns(CINCIN)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBPITvs CIN RHP Burns#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+427M74.870.644.000100%77.41,310212.262.345.48616.9%5.6%90.612.0%36.1%35.6%45.8%17.461
SHBPITvs CIN RHP Burns#3 · Premium RBI/Power+706M52.853.236.00070%62.41,377219.191.374.50112.7%4.1%91.410.4%36.2%24.9%48.0%5.848
RHBPITvs CIN RHP Burns#6 · Secondary Power+893M44.850.037.00068%55.02,309343.168.382.43211.3%3.4%90.28.4%32.5%31.4%42.6%15.045
SHBPITvs CIN RHP Burns#7 · Secondary Power+863M44.849.332.00070%55.91,396252.174.345.50414.3%3.3%90.39.1%32.0%25.3%44.3%13.344
LHBPITvs CIN RHP Burns#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1248M30.845.136.00065%43.41,069187.177.319.46110.0%2.1%89.65.8%32.3%28.6%44.4%13.339
LHBPITvs CIN RHP Burns#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M30.842.136.00015%45.4235.000.180.25111.3%3.1%89.87.5%32.2%31.0%41.2%14.739
RHBPITvs CIN RHP Burns#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M30.845.434.00043%44.11,466255.129.335.40511.3%2.6%89.26.5%31.9%30.6%39.7%14.339
SHBPITvs CIN RHP Burns#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1374M28.841.031.00020%39.21,669341.072.324.48011.3%1.4%87.83.6%31.1%29.4%35.4%13.335
RHBPITvs CIN RHP Burns#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1422M28.837.729.00022%38.21,197229.077.321.48212.9%1.3%85.83.1%32.6%20.0%36.1%5.633
CIN Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
CIN hitters vsJared Jones(PIT)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Elly De La CruzElly De La CruzSHB
.290.538.24816%57%24%
.298.508.21012%58%23%
.254.473.21914%50%33%
.226.423.19713%48%41%
.215.388.17312%45%44%
.235.438.20313%47%37%
.259.458.19914%49%34%
.235.398.16312%45%40%
#2Sal StewartSal StewartRHB
.261.484.22317%45%24%
.269.457.18813%45%22%
.229.426.19714%39%32%
.188.350.16213%34%44%
.179.321.14211%32%47%
.195.363.16813%33%39%
.243.429.18615%39%32%
.220.373.15313%36%37%
#3JJ BledayJJ BledayLHB
.255.566.31112%50%22%
.262.534.2729%51%20%
.224.498.27410%44%29%
.209.468.25910%44%35%
.199.429.2309%41%38%
.217.484.26710%43%31%
.217.458.24110%40%32%
.196.398.2029%37%37%
#4Eugenio SuárezEugenio SuárezRHB
.219.399.1809%31%30%
.226.376.1507%31%28%
.192.351.1597%27%40%
.158.289.1317%23%55%
.150.265.1156%22%59%
.163.299.1367%23%49%
.204.353.1498%27%40%
.185.307.1227%25%47%
#5Nathaniel LoweNathaniel LoweLHB
.269.515.24613%44%17%
.276.487.21110%45%16%
.236.453.21711%39%23%
.220.426.20611%39%28%
.210.391.18110%37%30%
.228.441.21311%38%25%
.229.417.18811%36%26%
.207.363.15610%33%30%
#6Noelvi MarteNoelvi MarteRHB
.210.391.1816%34%24%
.216.369.1535%35%22%
.184.344.1605%30%32%
.151.283.1325%26%44%
.144.260.1164%25%47%
.156.293.1375%26%39%
.196.346.1505%30%32%
.177.301.1245%28%37%
#7Dane MyersDane MyersRHB
.268.413.1459%36%14%
.275.390.1157%36%14%
.235.363.1288%31%20%
.192.299.1077%27%27%
.183.274.0916%26%29%
.199.309.1107%27%24%
.249.365.1168%32%20%
.225.318.0937%29%23%
#8Jose TrevinoJose TrevinoRHB
.187.216.0290%30%21%
.192.204.0120%30%19%
.164.190.0260%26%28%
.134.156.0220%23%38%
.128.144.0160%22%41%
.139.162.0230%22%34%
.174.191.0170%26%28%
.157.166.0090%24%32%
#9Edwin ArroyoEdwin ArroyoSHB
.248.295.0470%23%19%
.255.278.0230%24%18%
.217.259.0420%20%26%
.194.232.0380%19%32%
.184.213.0290%18%34%
.201.240.0390%19%29%
.222.251.0290%20%27%
.201.218.0170%18%31%
PIT Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
PIT hitters vsChase Burns(CIN)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Jake MangumJake MangumSHB
.306.377.0712%28%16%
.314.356.0421%29%15%
.268.332.0641%25%22%
.239.297.0581%23%28%
.227.272.0451%22%30%
.247.307.0601%23%25%
.274.321.0471%24%23%
.247.279.0321%22%27%
#2Brandon LoweBrandon LoweLHB
.261.556.29513%50%29%
.269.525.25610%51%27%
.229.489.26012%44%39%
.214.460.24612%44%47%
.204.422.21810%41%50%
.222.476.25412%43%42%
.222.450.22811%40%43%
.201.391.19010%37%50%
#3Bryan ReynoldsBryan ReynoldsSHB
.306.523.21712%52%24%
.314.494.1809%53%23%
.268.460.19210%46%33%
.239.411.17210%44%41%
.227.378.1519%41%44%
.247.426.17910%43%37%
.274.445.17110%45%34%
.247.387.1409%41%40%
#4Nick GonzalesNick GonzalesRHB
.312.405.0933%39%20%
.321.383.0623%40%19%
.273.356.0833%34%27%
.224.293.0693%30%38%
.213.269.0562%28%40%
.232.304.0723%29%34%
.290.359.0693%35%28%
.263.312.0493%32%32%
#5Ryan O'HearnRyan O'HearnLHB
.299.500.2017%48%18%
.308.472.1645%49%17%
.262.440.1786%42%25%
.245.413.1686%42%30%
.233.379.1465%39%32%
.254.428.1746%41%27%
.255.405.1505%39%27%
.230.352.1225%36%32%
#6Marcell OzunaMarcell OzunaRHB
.211.342.1319%42%26%
.217.323.1067%43%25%
.185.301.1168%37%36%
.152.248.0967%32%49%
.144.227.0836%30%52%
.157.257.1007%31%44%
.196.303.1078%37%36%
.178.264.0867%34%42%
#7Endy RodríguezEndy RodríguezSHB
.276.483.20715%51%20%
.284.456.17211%52%19%
.242.425.18313%45%27%
.216.380.16412%43%34%
.205.349.14411%40%36%
.224.393.16912%42%30%
.247.411.16413%43%28%
.224.358.13411%40%32%
#8Tyler CallihanTyler CallihanLHB
.268.552.28410%34%26%
.275.521.2468%34%24%
.235.485.2509%30%35%
.220.456.2369%30%42%
.209.419.2108%28%45%
.228.472.2449%29%38%
.228.447.2199%27%39%
.206.388.1828%25%45%
#9Jared TrioloJared TrioloRHB
.239.291.05299%38%21%
.246.274.02877%39%19%
.210.256.04686%34%28%
.172.210.03875%29%38%
.164.193.02966%28%41%
.178.218.04076%29%34%
.223.257.03490%34%28%
.202.224.02280%31%32%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Eugenio Suárez
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M54.000205N/A7N/A.209.273.369.298.2847.8%93.5
Nathaniel Lowe
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+427M44.000197N/A9N/A.256.350.477.262.36012.7%90.6
Brandon Lowe
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+427M44.000331N/A19N/A.249.326.515.262.36110.0%90.6
Elly De La Cruz
SHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+513M41.000266N/A12N/A.276.346.498.219.3669.0%94.4
Sal Stewart
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+569M43.000343N/A14N/A.249.341.448.196.34312.2%90.7
Noelvi Marte
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+655M42.00087N/A3N/A.200.264.362.194.2778.0%91.3
JJ Bleday
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+728M38.000219N/A13N/A.243.349.524.192.37413.2%90.8
Bryan Reynolds
SHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+706M36.000348N/A11N/A.291.405.484.191.39014.9%91.4
Marcell Ozuna
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+893M37.000221N/A6N/A.201.281.317.168.2699.0%90.2
Endy Rodríguez
SHB#7 · Secondary Power+863M32.00094N/A3N/A.263.398.447.174.37718.1%90.3
Jose Trevino
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1248M33.00048N/AN/AN/A.178.196.200.113.1782.1%88.8
Ryan O'Hearn
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1248M36.000270N/A11N/A.285.341.463.177.3507.4%89.6
Tyler Callihan
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M36.00056N/A2N/A.255.357.511.000.37212.5%89.8
Jared Triolo
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M34.000162N/AN/AN/A.228.300.269.129.2648.0%89.2
Dane Myers
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+1329M31.000129N/A3N/A.255.357.382.091.33312.4%88.3
Edwin Arroyo
SHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1447M30.00061N/AN/AN/A.236.295.273.037.2614.9%86.9
Jake Mangum
SHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1374M31.000188N/A1N/A.291.335.349.072.3055.3%87.8
Nick Gonzales
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1422M29.000305N/A3N/A.297.344.375.077.3215.2%85.8
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Chase Burns
Chase Burns
CIN · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season89.7359.206.306.1001.08111.108.1%33.2%30.4%20.7%33.2%10.948.5%36.1%26.0%
vs LHB48.0203.201.309.335.1341.2581.5011.8%33.2%33.0%33.2%12.568.5%36.1%26.0%
vs RHB36.3137.189.250.235.0460.8320.503.6%33.2%25.5%33.2%8.678.5%36.1%26.0%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3025.3110.257.347.0901.3831.078.2%33.2%33.6%33.2%13.148.5%36.1%26.0%
L1514.062.286.393.1071.5721.299.7%33.2%33.9%33.2%13.508.5%36.1%26.0%
Jared Jones
Jared Jones
PIT · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season24.7108.273.424.1511.4651.828.3%33.3%22.2%17.0%33.3%8.768.2%41.0%27.9%
vs LHB11.054.367.491.612.2452.0943.279.3%33.3%22.2%33.3%9.828.2%41.0%27.9%
vs RHB9.336.152.250.152.0000.8600.008.3%33.3%25.0%33.3%8.688.2%41.0%27.9%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3020.387.250.362.1121.3331.338.0%33.3%20.7%33.3%7.978.2%41.0%27.9%
L1511.350.283.478.1951.5032.388.0%33.3%20.0%33.3%7.948.2%41.0%27.9%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Chase Burns
Chase Burns
CIN · RHP · 4 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball56.1%.212.314.372.1600.0%19.9%16.6%14.2%0.0%97.90.0%35.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider37.2%.146.203.263.1170.0%51.3%48.9%34.3%0.0%90.70.0%39.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup6.6%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%90.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball0.1%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%81.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Jared Jones
Jared Jones
PIT · RHP · 4 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball38.2%.224.322.425.2010.0%25.8%24.0%22.5%0.0%98.70.0%46.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider33.3%.207.278.352.1450.0%37.3%31.1%25.2%0.0%90.10.0%40.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup18.1%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%93.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball10.3%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%85.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-06-27 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Jun 2026