Clutch Algorithm
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CT
ATL
ATL@SF
FIRST PITCH
SF
Game 14 of 15 Sun · Jun 28, 1:05 AM
CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · ATL vs Logan Webb · SF vs Bryce Elder

#1Casey Schmitt
Casey SchmittRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
SF· LFvs ATL RHP Elder
🟢 Strong
Test
72
Ceil
69
Likely
60
kHR
76
Zone
46
Form
91%
EV
89.5
Brl%
12.3%
ISO
.222
xwOBA
.360
xwOBAc
.556
SwStr%
11.9%
PullBrl
4.7%
SwtSp%
39.8%
HH%
43.2%
strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .222, off-platoon but elite power+455MODEL
#2Matt Olson
Matt OlsonLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
ATL· 1Bvs SF RHP Webb
🟢 Strong
Test
68
Ceil
50
Likely
52
kHR
75
Zone
39
Form
100%
EV
92.6
Brl%
13.3%
ISO
.258
xwOBA
.364
xwOBAc
.516
SwStr%
11.1%
PullBrl
4.7%
SwtSp%
31.6%
HH%
50.9%
strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .258+465MODEL
#3Michael Harris II
Michael Harris IILHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
ATL· CFvs SF RHP Webb
🟡 Viable
Test
62
Ceil
51
Likely
51
kHR
74
Zone
35
Form
92%
EV
91.9
Brl%
15.1%
ISO
.203
xwOBA
.378
xwOBAc
.577
SwStr%
14.9%
PullBrl
5.0%
SwtSp%
31.9%
HH%
50.7%
elite Barrel 15%, power ISO .203 (matchup soft)+493MODEL
#4Drake Baldwin
Drake BaldwinLHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
ATL· Cvs SF RHP Webb
🟡 Viable
Test
62
Ceil
52
Likely
54
kHR
76
Zone
42
Form
100%
EV
91.6
Brl%
17.4%
ISO
.215
xwOBA
.379
xwOBAc
.535
SwStr%
13.2%
PullBrl
5.6%
SwtSp%
39.1%
HH%
50.9%
elite Barrel 17%, power ISO .215 (matchup soft)+445MODEL
#5Rafael Devers
Rafael DeversLHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
SF· 1Bvs ATL RHP Elder
🟠 Longshot
Test
54
Ceil
51
Likely
45
kHR
63
Zone
27
Form
71%
EV
92.0
Brl%
10.3%
ISO
.197
xwOBA
.304
xwOBAc
.432
SwStr%
15.0%
PullBrl
3.3%
SwtSp%
32.6%
HH%
50.7%
strong Barrel 10% (matchup soft)+693MODEL
#6Willy Adames
Willy AdamesRHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
SF· SSvs ATL RHP Elder
🟠 Longshot
Test
54
Ceil
45
Likely
43
kHR
61
Zone
30
Form
75%
EV
88.5
Brl%
9.4%
ISO
.204
xwOBA
.291
xwOBAc
.420
SwStr%
13.7%
PullBrl
4.5%
SwtSp%
37.9%
HH%
40.6%
power ISO .204, pull-side power (matchup soft)+728MODEL
#7Austin Riley
Austin RileyRHB#7 · Secondary Power
ATL· 3Bvs SF RHP Webb
🟠 Longshot
Test
50
Ceil
43
Likely
42
kHR
60
Zone
29
Form
56%
EV
91.0
Brl%
10.2%
ISO
.131
xwOBA
.299
xwOBAc
.402
SwStr%
15.2%
PullBrl
4.1%
SwtSp%
30.5%
HH%
45.2%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+750MODEL
#8Dominic Smith
Dominic SmithLHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
ATL· DHvs SF RHP Webb
🟠 Longshot
Test
46
Ceil
43
Likely
43
kHR
59
Zone
32
Form
61%
EV
89.4
Brl%
11.7%
ISO
.139
xwOBA
.333
xwOBAc
.469
SwStr%
14.2%
PullBrl
4.0%
SwtSp%
33.3%
HH%
44.4%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+774MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — ATL
vs Logan Webb (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

ATLATL
vs Logan Webb (SF)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — SF
vs Bryce Elder (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

SFSF
vs Bryce Elder (ATL)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
ATL vs Logan Webb
9 hitters · primary stack for the away offense
ATL

ATL hitters

vsLogan Webb(SFSF)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBATLvs SF RHP Webb#3 · Premium RBI/Power+465M67.750.339.000100%75.11,361231.258.364.51611.1%4.7%92.613.3%31.6%33.3%50.9%17.652
LHBATLvs SF RHP Webb#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+493M61.750.835.00092%73.51,108212.203.378.57714.9%5.0%91.915.1%31.9%23.9%50.7%10.951
LHBATLvs SF RHP Webb#4 · Premium RBI/Power+445M61.751.942.000100%76.2987160.215.379.53513.2%5.6%91.617.4%39.1%23.0%50.9%10.154
RHBATLvs SF RHP Webb#7 · Secondary Power+750M49.743.429.00056%60.31,268195.131.299.40215.2%4.1%91.010.2%30.5%31.5%45.2%19.342
LHBATLvs SF RHP Webb#5 · Premium RBI/Power+774M45.742.932.00061%59.31,209195.139.333.46914.2%4.0%89.411.7%33.3%25.3%44.4%10.543
LHBATLvs SF RHP Webb#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+873M45.743.333.00063%55.72,176369.170.368.43411.3%3.5%90.28.5%32.5%31.4%42.8%15.142
SHBATLvs SF RHP Webb#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1267M33.734.429.00056%42.51,338267.163.304.44810.9%1.7%87.24.0%34.8%31.9%28.3%17.133
RHBATLvs SF RHP Webb#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1248M31.738.029.00046%43.4745132.111.322.40611.3%2.2%88.85.5%31.7%30.2%38.3%14.035
RHBATLvs SF RHP Webb#6 · Secondary Power+1308M29.734.435.00048%41.61,197240.151.320.4768.6%1.6%86.35.4%37.9%25.4%29.6%15.434
SF vs Bryce Elder
9 hitters · primary stack for the home offense
SF

SF hitters

vsBryce Elder(ATLATL)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
RHBSFvs ATL RHP Elder#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+455M71.769.046.00091%75.71,205233.222.360.55611.9%4.7%89.512.3%39.8%33.5%43.2%21.460
LHBSFvs ATL RHP Elder#4 · Premium RBI/Power+693M53.751.427.00071%63.01,342213.197.304.43215.0%3.3%92.010.3%32.6%32.6%50.7%14.045
RHBSFvs ATL RHP Elder#5 · Premium RBI/Power+728M53.744.530.00075%61.21,306223.204.291.42013.7%4.5%88.59.4%37.9%34.8%40.6%23.043
LHBSFvs ATL RHP Elder#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+893M45.746.531.00056%55.042580.160.305.36511.3%3.3%90.08.0%32.4%31.2%42.0%14.942
LHBSFvs ATL RHP Elder#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1175M31.749.330.00015%46.0162.000.410.50011.3%3.1%89.87.5%32.2%31.0%41.2%14.740
LHBSFvs ATL RHP Elder#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1527M29.737.533.00021%35.61,314289.126.304.4704.2%0.1%87.30.3%40.4%29.5%22.2%15.033
LHBSFvs ATL RHP Elder#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1397M29.740.535.00034%38.71,158251.144.331.5115.8%1.1%87.82.8%39.0%22.0%30.3%11.535
LHBSFvs ATL RHP Elder#6 · Secondary Power+1351M29.740.126.00014%39.714415.072.301.19711.3%1.4%87.83.6%31.1%29.4%35.4%13.333
RHBSFvs ATL RHP Elder#7 · Secondary Power+1229M29.742.728.00047%43.81,314216.136.293.38010.2%2.7%88.36.9%26.0%20.5%37.0%10.536
ATL Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
ATL hitters vsLogan Webb(SF)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Michael Harris IIMichael Harris IILHB
.321.554.23317%55%22%
.330.523.19313%56%21%
.282.487.20515%48%30%
.263.458.19515%48%37%
.251.420.16913%45%39%
.273.474.20115%47%33%
.273.448.17514%44%33%
.247.390.14312%41%39%
#2Ozzie AlbiesOzzie AlbiesSHB
.295.482.1875%31%17%
.303.455.1524%31%16%
.259.424.1654%27%23%
.230.379.1494%26%29%
.219.348.1293%24%31%
.239.392.1534%25%26%
.264.410.1464%26%24%
.239.357.1184%24%28%
#3Matt OlsonMatt OlsonLHB
.284.570.28615%55%21%
.292.539.24712%56%20%
.248.502.25413%49%28%
.232.471.23913%48%34%
.221.432.21111%46%36%
.241.488.24713%47%30%
.241.461.22012%45%31%
.218.401.18311%41%36%
#4Drake BaldwinDrake BaldwinLHB
.281.525.24420%55%22%
.289.496.20715%56%21%
.247.462.21517%49%30%
.231.434.20317%49%36%
.219.398.17915%46%38%
.239.449.21017%47%32%
.239.425.18616%45%33%
.216.369.15314%41%38%
#5Dominic SmithDominic SmithLHB
.293.458.1658%37%17%
.301.432.1316%38%16%
.257.403.1467%33%24%
.240.378.1387%33%28%
.229.347.1186%31%30%
.249.392.1437%32%25%
.249.371.1227%30%26%
.225.322.0976%28%30%
#6Mauricio DubónMauricio DubónRHB
.277.451.1746%32%14%
.285.426.1415%33%13%
.243.397.1545%28%19%
.199.327.1285%25%26%
.189.300.1114%23%28%
.206.338.1325%24%24%
.258.400.1426%28%19%
.233.348.1155%26%22%
#7Austin RileyAustin RileyRHB
.225.375.15011%49%28%
.231.354.1239%50%26%
.197.330.13310%43%37%
.161.271.1109%38%51%
.154.249.0958%36%55%
.167.281.1149%37%46%
.209.332.12310%43%38%
.189.289.1009%40%44%
#8Mike YastrzemskiMike YastrzemskiLHB
.239.375.1364%47%21%
.246.354.1083%48%20%
.210.330.1203%41%28%
.196.310.1143%41%34%
.187.284.0973%39%36%
.203.321.1184%40%30%
.204.303.0993%38%31%
.184.264.0803%35%36%
#9Ha-Seong KimHa-Seong KimRHB
.081.083.0025%23%18%
.083.079.0004%23%17%
.071.073.0024%20%24%
.058.060.0024%18%33%
.055.055.0003%17%36%
.060.062.0024%17%30%
.075.074.0004%20%24%
.068.064.0004%19%28%
SF Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
SF hitters vsBryce Elder(ATL)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Luis ArraezLuis ArraezLHB
.337.481.14433%24%7%
.347.454.10726%24%7%
.295.423.12829%21%10%
.276.397.12128%21%12%
.263.364.10125%20%12%
.286.411.12529%20%10%
.287.389.10227%19%11%
.259.338.07924%18%12%
#2Casey SchmittCasey SchmittRHB
.309.561.25214%47%19%
.318.529.21111%48%18%
.270.493.22312%41%26%
.222.406.18410%36%35%
.211.372.1619%34%38%
.230.420.19011%35%32%
.287.497.21013%42%26%
.260.432.17211%39%30%
#3Jung Hoo LeeJung Hoo LeeLHB
.349.516.1673%33%11%
.359.488.1292%33%10%
.305.454.1493%29%15%
.286.427.1413%29%17%
.272.391.1192%27%19%
.296.442.1463%28%16%
.296.418.1223%27%16%
.268.363.0952%25%19%
#4Rafael DeversRafael DeversLHB
.247.467.22011%55%26%
.254.441.1879%56%24%
.216.410.19410%48%35%
.202.386.18410%48%42%
.192.354.1628%45%45%
.210.399.18910%47%37%
.210.378.1689%44%38%
.190.328.1388%41%45%
#5Willy AdamesWilly AdamesRHB
.236.462.22610%44%24%
.243.437.1948%45%23%
.207.407.2009%39%33%
.170.335.1658%34%45%
.161.307.1467%32%48%
.176.347.1718%33%40%
.220.410.1909%39%33%
.199.356.1578%36%38%
#6Bryce EldridgeBryce EldridgeLHB
.292.519.22713%58%19%
.300.491.19110%59%18%
.256.457.20111%51%26%
.239.429.19011%51%31%
.228.394.16610%48%33%
.248.444.19612%50%28%
.248.420.17211%47%28%
.224.366.14210%44%33%
#7Matt ChapmanMatt ChapmanRHB
.254.411.1578%40%19%
.261.389.1286%41%18%
.223.362.1397%35%26%
.183.298.1156%31%36%
.174.273.0995%29%38%
.189.308.1196%30%32%
.237.365.1287%36%26%
.214.317.1036%33%30%
#8Drew GilbertDrew GilbertLHB
.245.394.1493%35%20%
.252.372.1202%36%19%
.214.347.1332%31%27%
.201.326.1252%31%32%
.191.299.1082%29%34%
.208.337.1292%30%29%
.208.319.1112%29%29%
.188.277.0892%27%34%
#9Drew CavanaughDrew CavanaughLHB
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Casey Schmitt
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+455M46.000305N/A16N/A.294.321.519.222.3602.3%89.5
Matt Olson
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+465M39.000345N/A20N/A.270.342.528.258.3719.9%92.6
Michael Harris II
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+493M35.000279N/A14N/A.306.337.513.203.3674.3%91.9
Drake Baldwin
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+445M42.000249N/A14N/A.268.349.486.215.3639.6%91.6
Rafael Devers
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+693M27.000340N/A12N/A.235.297.432.197.3157.9%92.0
Willy Adames
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+728M30.000331N/A14N/A.225.269.428.204.3015.4%88.5
Austin Riley
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+750M29.000321N/A8N/A.214.296.347.131.2898.7%91.0
Dominic Smith
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+774M32.000190N/A6N/A.279.317.424.139.3215.8%89.4
Mike Yastrzemski
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+873M33.000217N/A4N/A.228.313.347.170.2999.2%90.2
Drew Gilbert
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+893M31.000182N/A3N/A.233.322.365.160.3059.3%90.0
Ozzie Albies
SHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1267M29.000339N/A12N/A.281.333.446.163.3377.1%87.2
Ha-Seong Kim
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1248M29.00072N/AN/AN/A.077.167.077.111.1309.7%88.8
Drew Cavanaugh
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1175M30.000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A.000N/AN/A89.8
Mauricio Dubón
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1308M35.000302N/A8N/A.264.316.418.151.3226.3%86.3
Luis Arraez
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1527M33.000332N/A3N/A.321.358.445.126.3465.4%87.3
Jung Hoo Lee
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1397M35.000293N/A5N/A.332.365.478.144.3674.4%87.8
Bryce Eldridge
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1351M26.000156N/A6N/A.278.378.481.072.37414.1%87.8
Matt Chapman
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+1229M28.000333N/A7N/A.242.333.381.136.31810.8%88.3
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Bryce Elder
Bryce Elder
ATL · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season94.7398.234.316.0821.21100.957.3%22.5%19.8%18.9%22.5%7.514.2%39.6%25.3%
vs LHB63.0256.193.254.258.0651.0850.719.0%22.5%19.5%22.5%7.144.2%39.6%25.3%
vs RHB31.3142.301.349.412.1111.5051.444.2%22.5%20.4%22.5%8.334.2%39.6%25.3%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3026.0125.333.462.1291.8151.736.4%22.5%15.2%22.5%6.584.2%39.6%25.3%
L1516.078.333.500.1671.8842.257.7%22.5%15.4%22.5%6.754.2%39.6%25.3%
Logan Webb
Logan Webb
SF · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season83.3337.233.281.0481.1250.545.9%20.6%20.8%15.6%20.6%7.565.4%43.0%19.4%
vs LHB51.7211.246.281.307.0611.1840.705.7%20.6%21.3%20.6%7.845.4%43.0%19.4%
vs RHB31.0126.203.250.229.0261.0310.296.3%20.6%19.8%20.6%7.265.4%43.0%19.4%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3035.3129.171.195.0240.7410.253.9%20.6%21.7%20.6%7.135.4%43.0%19.4%
L1524.086.200.235.0350.7510.381.2%20.6%22.1%20.6%7.125.4%43.0%19.4%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Bryce Elder
Bryce Elder
ATL · RHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Slider27.4%.220.298.349.1290.0%31.7%26.9%24.4%0.0%83.20.0%40.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker26.1%.239.315.394.1550.0%15.0%26.1%33.7%0.0%91.30.0%48.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam Fastball24.0%.292.320.385.0930.0%17.3%13.7%14.3%0.0%92.60.0%32.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter13.3%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%88.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup9.3%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%85.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Logan Webb
Logan Webb
SF · RHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Sinker32.1%.245.313.364.1190.0%10.5%8.9%15.9%0.0%92.20.0%58.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup25.0%.247.257.294.0470.0%31.2%34.1%20.1%0.0%86.10.0%38.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper20.1%.222.269.333.1110.0%21.7%27.1%27.1%0.0%84.20.0%28.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam12.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%92.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter10.6%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%90.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-06-27 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Jun 2026