Clutch Algorithm
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CT
ATL
ATL@SF
FIRST PITCH
SF
Game 13 of 15 Sun · Jun 28, 8:05 PM
CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · ATL vs Robbie Ray · SF vs Chris Sale

#1Casey Schmitt
Casey SchmittRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
SF· LFvs ATL LHP Sale
🟢 Strong
Test
75
Ceil
100
Likely
72
kHR
78
Zone
48
Form
91%
EV
89.5
Brl%
12.3%
ISO
.222
xwOBA
.360
xwOBAc
.556
SwStr%
11.9%
PullBrl
4.7%
SwtSp%
39.8%
HH%
43.2%
strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .222, park/wind boost+424MODEL
#2Matt Olson
Matt OlsonLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
ATL· 1Bvs SF LHP Ray
🟢 Strong
Test
71
Ceil
74
Likely
63
kHR
77
Zone
46
Form
100%
EV
92.6
Brl%
13.3%
ISO
.258
xwOBA
.364
xwOBAc
.516
SwStr%
11.1%
PullBrl
4.7%
SwtSp%
31.6%
HH%
50.9%
strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .258, park/wind boost+433MODEL
#3Michael Harris II
Michael Harris IILHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
ATL· CFvs SF LHP Ray
🟡 Viable
Test
65
Ceil
75
Likely
61
kHR
75
Zone
42
Form
92%
EV
91.9
Brl%
15.1%
ISO
.203
xwOBA
.378
xwOBAc
.577
SwStr%
14.9%
PullBrl
5.0%
SwtSp%
31.9%
HH%
50.7%
elite Barrel 15%, power ISO .203 (matchup soft)+458MODEL
#4Drake Baldwin
Drake BaldwinLHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
ATL· Cvs SF LHP Ray
🟡 Viable
Test
65
Ceil
76
Likely
64
kHR
78
Zone
49
Form
100%
EV
91.6
Brl%
17.4%
ISO
.215
xwOBA
.379
xwOBAc
.535
SwStr%
13.2%
PullBrl
5.6%
SwtSp%
39.1%
HH%
50.9%
elite Barrel 17%, power ISO .215 (matchup soft)+424MODEL
#5Rafael Devers
Rafael DeversLHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
SF· 1Bvs ATL LHP Sale
🟠 Longshot
Test
57
Ceil
81
Likely
56
kHR
65
Zone
29
Form
71%
EV
92.0
Brl%
10.3%
ISO
.197
xwOBA
.304
xwOBAc
.432
SwStr%
15.0%
PullBrl
3.3%
SwtSp%
32.6%
HH%
50.7%
strong Barrel 10%, park/wind boost (matchup soft)+655MODEL
#6Willy Adames
Willy AdamesRHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
SF· SSvs ATL LHP Sale
🟠 Longshot
Test
57
Ceil
73
Likely
54
kHR
63
Zone
32
Form
75%
EV
88.5
Brl%
9.4%
ISO
.204
xwOBA
.291
xwOBAc
.420
SwStr%
13.7%
PullBrl
4.5%
SwtSp%
37.9%
HH%
40.6%
power ISO .204, pull-side power (matchup soft)+693MODEL
#7Austin Riley
Austin RileyRHB#7 · Secondary Power
ATL· 3Bvs SF LHP Ray
🟠 Longshot
Test
53
Ceil
66
Likely
52
kHR
62
Zone
36
Form
56%
EV
91.0
Brl%
10.2%
ISO
.131
xwOBA
.299
xwOBAc
.402
SwStr%
15.2%
PullBrl
4.1%
SwtSp%
30.5%
HH%
45.2%
strong Barrel 10%, park/wind boost (matchup soft)+706MODEL
#8Dominic Smith
Dominic SmithLHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
ATL· DHvs SF LHP Ray
🟠 Longshot
Test
49
Ceil
66
Likely
53
kHR
61
Zone
39
Form
61%
EV
89.4
Brl%
11.7%
ISO
.139
xwOBA
.333
xwOBAc
.469
SwStr%
14.2%
PullBrl
4.0%
SwtSp%
33.3%
HH%
44.4%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+728MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — ATL
vs Robbie Ray (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

ATLATL
vs Robbie Ray (SF)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — SF
vs Chris Sale (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

SFSF
vs Chris Sale (ATL)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
ATL vs Robbie Ray
9 hitters · primary stack for the away offense
ATL

ATL hitters

vsRobbie Ray(SFSF)LHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBATLvs SF LHP Ray#3 · Premium RBI/Power+433M70.974.446.000100%77.01,361231.258.364.51611.1%4.7%92.613.3%31.6%33.3%50.9%17.663
LHBATLvs SF LHP Ray#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+458M64.975.042.00092%75.41,108212.203.378.57714.9%5.0%91.915.1%31.9%23.9%50.7%10.961
LHBATLvs SF LHP Ray#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M64.976.349.000100%78.1987160.215.379.53513.2%5.6%91.617.4%39.1%23.0%50.9%10.164
RHBATLvs SF LHP Ray#7 · Secondary Power+706M52.966.336.00056%62.21,268195.131.299.40215.2%4.1%91.010.2%30.5%31.5%45.2%19.352
LHBATLvs SF LHP Ray#5 · Premium RBI/Power+728M48.965.639.00061%61.31,209195.139.333.46914.2%4.0%89.411.7%33.3%25.3%44.4%10.553
LHBATLvs SF LHP Ray#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+816M48.966.140.00063%57.62,176369.170.368.43411.3%3.5%90.28.5%32.5%31.4%42.8%15.152
SHBATLvs SF LHP Ray#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1210M36.954.736.00056%44.41,338267.163.304.44810.9%1.7%87.24.0%34.8%31.9%28.3%17.142
RHBATLvs SF LHP Ray#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M34.959.436.00046%45.3745132.111.322.40611.3%2.2%88.85.5%31.7%30.2%38.3%14.044
RHBATLvs SF LHP Ray#6 · Secondary Power+1248M32.954.642.00048%43.51,197240.151.320.4768.6%1.6%86.35.4%37.9%25.4%29.6%15.443
SF vs Chris Sale
9 hitters · primary stack for the home offense
SF

SF hitters

vsChris Sale(ATLATL)LHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
RHBSFvs ATL LHP Sale#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M74.999.948.00091%77.61,205233.222.360.55611.9%4.7%89.512.3%39.8%33.5%43.2%21.472
LHBSFvs ATL LHP Sale#4 · Premium RBI/Power+655M56.981.429.00071%64.91,342213.197.304.43215.0%3.3%92.010.3%32.6%32.6%50.7%14.056
RHBSFvs ATL LHP Sale#5 · Premium RBI/Power+693M56.973.232.00075%63.11,306223.204.291.42013.7%4.5%88.59.4%37.9%34.8%40.6%23.054
LHBSFvs ATL LHP Sale#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+834M48.975.633.00056%56.942580.160.305.36511.3%3.3%90.08.0%32.4%31.2%42.0%14.953
LHBSFvs ATL LHP Sale#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1125M34.973.132.00015%47.9275.000.262.25111.3%3.1%89.87.5%32.2%31.0%41.2%14.749
LHBSFvs ATL LHP Sale#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1447M32.964.335.00021%37.61,314289.126.304.4704.2%0.1%87.30.3%40.4%29.5%22.2%15.043
LHBSFvs ATL LHP Sale#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1329M32.968.236.00034%40.71,158251.144.331.5115.8%1.1%87.82.8%39.0%22.0%30.3%11.545
LHBSFvs ATL LHP Sale#6 · Secondary Power+1308M32.967.727.00014%41.614415.072.301.19711.3%1.4%87.83.6%31.1%29.4%35.4%13.343
RHBSFvs ATL LHP Sale#7 · Secondary Power+1175M32.970.930.00047%45.71,314216.136.293.38010.2%2.7%88.36.9%26.0%20.5%37.0%10.547
ATL Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
ATL hitters vsRobbie Ray(SF)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Michael Harris IIMichael Harris IILHB
.321.554.23317%55%22%
.330.523.19313%56%21%
.282.487.20515%48%30%
.231.401.17013%42%42%
.220.368.14811%40%45%
.239.415.17613%41%37%
.299.491.19215%49%31%
.271.427.15614%45%36%
#2Ozzie AlbiesOzzie AlbiesSHB
.295.482.1875%31%17%
.303.455.1524%31%16%
.259.424.1654%27%23%
.230.379.1494%26%29%
.219.348.1293%24%31%
.239.392.1534%25%26%
.264.410.1464%26%24%
.239.357.1184%24%28%
#3Matt OlsonMatt OlsonLHB
.284.570.28615%55%21%
.292.539.24712%56%20%
.248.502.25413%49%28%
.204.413.20911%42%39%
.194.379.18510%40%41%
.211.427.21611%41%35%
.264.505.24114%49%28%
.239.439.20012%45%33%
#4Drake BaldwinDrake BaldwinLHB
.281.525.24420%55%22%
.289.496.20715%56%21%
.247.462.21517%49%30%
.202.380.17815%43%41%
.192.349.15713%40%44%
.210.393.18315%42%37%
.262.465.20318%49%30%
.237.404.16716%45%35%
#5Dominic SmithDominic SmithLHB
.293.458.1658%37%17%
.301.432.1316%38%16%
.257.403.1467%33%24%
.210.332.1226%29%32%
.200.304.1045%27%35%
.218.343.1256%28%29%
.273.406.1337%33%24%
.247.353.1067%31%28%
#6Mauricio DubónMauricio DubónRHB
.277.451.1746%32%14%
.285.426.1415%33%13%
.243.397.1545%28%19%
.227.373.1465%28%23%
.216.342.1265%27%25%
.236.386.1505%27%21%
.236.365.1295%26%21%
.213.318.1054%24%25%
#7Austin RileyAustin RileyRHB
.225.375.15011%49%28%
.231.354.1239%50%26%
.197.330.13310%43%37%
.184.310.12610%43%45%
.175.284.1099%41%48%
.191.321.13010%42%40%
.191.303.1129%40%41%
.173.264.0918%37%48%
#8Mike YastrzemskiMike YastrzemskiLHB
.239.375.1364%47%21%
.246.354.1083%48%20%
.210.330.1203%41%28%
.172.271.0993%36%39%
.164.249.0853%34%41%
.178.281.1033%35%35%
.223.332.1094%41%28%
.202.289.0873%38%33%
#9Ha-Seong KimHa-Seong KimRHB
.081.083.0025%23%18%
.083.079.0004%23%17%
.071.073.0024%20%24%
.066.069.0034%20%29%
.063.063.0004%19%31%
.069.071.0024%20%26%
.069.067.0004%19%27%
.062.059.0004%17%31%
SF Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
SF hitters vsChris Sale(ATL)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Luis ArraezLuis ArraezLHB
.337.481.14433%24%7%
.347.454.10726%24%7%
.295.423.12829%21%10%
.242.348.10625%18%13%
.230.319.08922%17%14%
.251.360.10925%18%12%
.314.426.11230%21%10%
.284.370.08627%20%11%
#2Casey SchmittCasey SchmittRHB
.309.561.25214%47%19%
.318.529.21111%48%18%
.270.493.22312%41%26%
.253.463.21012%41%31%
.241.425.18411%39%33%
.262.480.21812%40%28%
.263.454.19112%38%28%
.237.394.15710%35%33%
#3Jung Hoo LeeJung Hoo LeeLHB
.349.516.1673%33%11%
.359.488.1292%33%10%
.305.454.1493%29%15%
.250.374.1242%25%20%
.238.343.1052%24%21%
.260.387.1272%25%18%
.325.457.1323%29%15%
.293.398.1053%27%17%
#4Rafael DeversRafael DeversLHB
.247.467.22011%55%26%
.254.441.1879%56%24%
.216.410.19410%48%35%
.177.338.1618%42%48%
.169.310.1417%40%51%
.184.350.1669%41%43%
.230.413.18310%49%35%
.208.359.1519%45%41%
#5Willy AdamesWilly AdamesRHB
.236.462.22610%44%24%
.243.437.1948%45%23%
.207.407.2009%39%33%
.194.382.1889%39%39%
.184.351.1678%36%42%
.201.395.1949%38%35%
.201.374.1738%36%36%
.182.325.1437%33%42%
#6Bryce EldridgeBryce EldridgeLHB
.292.519.22713%58%19%
.300.491.19110%59%18%
.256.457.20111%51%26%
.210.376.16610%45%35%
.199.345.1469%42%38%
.217.389.17210%44%32%
.272.460.18812%52%26%
.246.400.15411%48%30%
#7Matt ChapmanMatt ChapmanRHB
.254.411.1578%40%19%
.261.389.1286%41%18%
.223.362.1397%35%26%
.208.340.1327%35%31%
.198.312.1146%33%33%
.216.352.1367%34%28%
.216.333.1176%33%29%
.195.290.0956%30%33%
#8Drew GilbertDrew GilbertLHB
.245.394.1493%35%20%
.252.372.1202%36%19%
.214.347.1332%31%27%
.176.285.1092%27%36%
.167.262.0952%26%39%
.182.296.1142%27%33%
.228.349.1212%31%27%
.206.304.0982%29%31%
#9Drew CavanaughDrew CavanaughLHB
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Casey Schmitt
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M48.000305N/A16N/A.294.321.519.222.3602.3%89.5
Matt Olson
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+433M46.000345N/A20N/A.270.342.528.258.3719.9%92.6
Michael Harris II
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+458M42.000279N/A14N/A.306.337.513.203.3674.3%91.9
Drake Baldwin
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M49.000249N/A14N/A.268.349.486.215.3639.6%91.6
Rafael Devers
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+655M29.000340N/A12N/A.235.297.432.197.3157.9%92.0
Willy Adames
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+693M32.000331N/A14N/A.225.269.428.204.3015.4%88.5
Austin Riley
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+706M36.000321N/A8N/A.214.296.347.131.2898.7%91.0
Dominic Smith
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+728M39.000190N/A6N/A.279.317.424.139.3215.8%89.4
Mike Yastrzemski
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+816M40.000217N/A4N/A.228.313.347.170.2999.2%90.2
Drew Gilbert
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+834M33.000182N/A3N/A.233.322.365.160.3059.3%90.0
Ozzie Albies
SHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1210M36.000339N/A12N/A.281.333.446.163.3377.1%87.2
Ha-Seong Kim
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M36.00072N/AN/AN/A.077.167.077.111.1309.7%88.8
Drew Cavanaugh
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1125M32.000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A.000N/AN/A89.8
Mauricio Dubón
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1248M42.000302N/A8N/A.264.316.418.151.3226.3%86.3
Luis Arraez
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1447M35.000332N/A3N/A.321.358.445.126.3465.4%87.3
Jung Hoo Lee
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1329M36.000293N/A5N/A.332.365.478.144.3674.4%87.8
Bryce Eldridge
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1308M27.000156N/A6N/A.278.378.481.072.37414.1%87.8
Matt Chapman
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+1175M30.000333N/A7N/A.242.333.381.136.31810.8%88.3
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Chris Sale
Chris Sale
ATL · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season84.0342.214.272.0581.0560.646.1%29.5%28.9%18.9%29.5%10.615.6%32.2%23.8%
vs LHB20.783.188.250.225.0370.8710.443.6%29.5%36.1%29.5%13.065.6%32.2%23.8%
vs RHB63.0259.216.262.278.0621.1150.716.9%29.5%26.6%29.5%9.865.6%32.2%23.8%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3029.0126.267.267.0001.3100.005.6%29.5%27.8%29.5%10.865.6%32.2%23.8%
L1517.077.296.296.0001.4700.005.2%29.5%24.7%29.5%10.065.6%32.2%23.8%
Robbie Ray
Robbie Ray
SF · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season81.3343.224.363.1391.33141.5511.7%25.5%21.0%14.2%25.5%7.9710.7%37.7%37.3%
vs LHB22.793.224.262.259.0351.1910.408.6%25.5%26.9%25.5%9.9310.7%37.7%37.3%
vs RHB63.7273.213.336.377.1641.34131.8412.5%25.5%20.1%25.5%7.7710.7%37.7%37.3%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3026.7114.188.250.0621.3520.6715.8%25.5%19.3%25.5%7.4210.7%37.7%37.3%
L1518.774.169.215.0461.0710.4812.2%25.5%17.6%25.5%6.2710.7%37.7%37.3%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Chris Sale
Chris Sale
ATL · LHP · 4 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Slider40.7%.176.236.229.0530.0%38.7%41.7%26.9%0.0%79.40.0%14.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam Fastball39.6%.227.307.370.1430.0%22.7%26.1%20.1%0.0%95.90.0%45.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup11.7%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%88.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker8.0%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%95.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Robbie Ray
Robbie Ray
SF · LHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball40.7%.240.368.504.2640.0%19.1%20.6%15.6%0.0%93.30.0%42.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider26.8%.233.341.425.1920.0%35.9%28.0%17.4%0.0%85.90.0%38.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup16.3%.208.237.292.0840.0%26.9%21.5%19.5%0.0%86.00.0%24.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Knuckle Curve9.0%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%79.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker7.1%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%92.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-06-28 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

21+ Only · Clutch Algorithm is an analytics research platform for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not a sportsbook. No wagers are accepted, processed, or facilitated on this site. Projected probabilities, model HR%, and synthesized odds are model outputs — not guaranteed outcomes. Past performance does not predict future results.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Jun 2026