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CT
SD
SD@SF
FIRST PITCH
SF
Game 15 of 15 Sun · Sep 13, 11:20 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · SD vs Logan Webb · SF vs Nick Pivetta

#1Rafael Devers
Rafael DeversLHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
SF· DHvs SD RHP Pivetta
🟢 Strong
Test
74
Ceil
78
Likely
64
kHR
78
Zone
44
Form
100%
EV
93.0
Brl%
12.5%
ISO
.267
xwOBA
.342
xwOBAc
.474
SwStr%
13.7%
PullBrl
4.3%
SwtSp%
30.7%
HH%
51.6%
strong Barrel 12%, elite ISO .267, 93.0 EV+424MODEL
#2Jackson Merrill
Jackson MerrillLHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
SD· CFvs SF RHP Webb
🟡 Viable
Test
60
Ceil
47
Likely
48
kHR
70
Zone
35
Form
80%
EV
91.3
Brl%
12.8%
ISO
.191
xwOBA
.346
xwOBAc
.511
SwStr%
15.1%
PullBrl
4.7%
SwtSp%
38.9%
HH%
48.3%
strong Barrel 13%, park/wind suppresses (matchup soft)+579MODEL
#3Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
SD· RFvs SF RHP Webb
🟠 Longshot
Test
56
Ceil
51
Likely
49
kHR
67
Zone
37
Form
72%
EV
92.9
Brl%
12.6%
ISO
.171
xwOBA
.376
xwOBAc
.542
SwStr%
12.2%
PullBrl
4.4%
SwtSp%
32.7%
HH%
53.9%
strong Barrel 13%, park/wind suppresses (matchup soft)+615MODEL
#4Manny Machado
Manny MachadoRHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
SD· 3Bvs SF RHP Webb
🟠 Longshot
Test
48
Ceil
44
Likely
43
kHR
59
Zone
34
Form
78%
EV
90.4
Brl%
10.0%
ISO
.186
xwOBA
.335
xwOBAc
.463
SwStr%
12.2%
PullBrl
4.1%
SwtSp%
33.2%
HH%
44.8%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+782MODEL
#5Jonah Cox
Jonah CoxRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
SF· 2Bvs SD RHP Pivetta
🟠 Longshot
Test
48
Ceil
52
Likely
46
kHR
58
Zone
37
Form
67%
EV
90.4
Brl%
8.8%
ISO
.177
xwOBA
.365
xwOBAc
.514
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.6%
SwtSp%
32.7%
HH%
43.3%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+816MODEL
#6Drew Gilbert
Drew GilbertLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
SF· CFvs SD RHP Pivetta
🟠 Longshot
Test
44
Ceil
49
Likely
44
kHR
54
Zone
36
Form
56%
EV
90.0
Brl%
8.0%
ISO
.160
xwOBA
.305
xwOBAc
.365
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.3%
SwtSp%
32.4%
HH%
42.0%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+925MODEL
#7Ethan Salas
Ethan SalasLHB#6 · Secondary Power
SD· DHvs SF RHP Webb
🔴 Fade
Test
30
Ceil
33
Likely
35
kHR
45
Zone
32
Form
15%
EV
89.8
Brl%
7.5%
ISO
.000
xwOBA
.065
xwOBAc
.000
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.1%
SwtSp%
32.2%
HH%
41.2%
off-platoon+1192MODEL
#8Xander Bogaerts
Xander BogaertsRHB#7 · Secondary Power
SD· SSvs SF RHP Webb
🔴 Fade
Test
30
Ceil
39
Likely
35
kHR
43
Zone
28
Form
40%
EV
89.2
Brl%
5.7%
ISO
.102
xwOBA
.320
xwOBAc
.430
SwStr%
9.5%
PullBrl
2.5%
SwtSp%
27.8%
HH%
41.2%
flat power, off-platoon+1267MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — SD
vs Logan Webb (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

SDSD
vs Logan Webb (SF)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — SF
vs Nick Pivetta (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

SFSF
vs Nick Pivetta (SD)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
SD + SF · Combined Hitter Matrix
Both lineups in one table · sticky HITTER + TEAM columns · filter to one side with the chips
SDvsSF

SD + SF hitters

combined matrix · click any header to sort · click a row for detail
HitterTeamHandMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
SD Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
SD hitters vsLogan Webb(SF)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Fernando Tatis Jr.Fernando Tatis Jr.RHB
.300.494.19414%58%22%
.309.466.15711%59%21%
.263.434.17112%51%30%
.216.357.14110%45%42%
.205.328.1239%42%45%
.224.370.14611%44%37%
.280.437.15713%52%31%
.253.380.12711%48%36%
#2Sung-Mun SongSung-Mun SongLHB
.198.266.0684%31%18%
.204.251.0473%31%17%
.174.234.0604%27%25%
.163.220.0574%27%30%
.155.201.0463%25%32%
.169.227.0584%26%27%
.169.215.0464%25%27%
.153.187.0343%23%32%
#3Manny MachadoManny MachadoRHB
.232.440.20811%48%22%
.239.415.1769%49%20%
.203.387.18410%43%29%
.167.318.1518%37%40%
.159.292.1337%35%43%
.173.330.1579%36%36%
.216.389.17310%43%29%
.195.339.1449%40%34%
#4Freddy FerminFreddy FerminRHB
.207.337.1305%33%23%
.213.318.1054%33%22%
.181.296.1154%29%31%
.149.244.0953%25%43%
.141.224.0833%24%46%
.154.253.0994%24%38%
.193.299.1064%29%31%
.174.260.0864%27%37%
#5Jackson MerrillJackson MerrillLHB
.260.474.21414%52%23%
.268.448.18011%53%22%
.228.417.18912%46%31%
.214.392.17812%46%37%
.203.360.15711%43%40%
.221.406.18512%45%33%
.221.384.16312%42%34%
.200.334.13410%39%40%
#6Ethan SalasEthan SalasLHB
——————
——————
——————
——————
——————
——————
——————
——————
#7Xander BogaertsXander BogaertsRHB
.235.352.1176%45%19%
.242.333.0915%45%18%
.206.310.1045%39%26%
.169.255.0865%34%36%
.161.234.0734%32%38%
.175.264.0895%33%32%
.219.312.0936%39%26%
.198.271.0735%36%31%
#8Jake CronenworthJake CronenworthLHB
.219.311.0923%30%18%
.226.294.0683%30%17%
.192.274.0823%26%25%
.180.257.0773%26%30%
.171.236.0652%25%32%
.187.266.0793%26%27%
.187.252.0653%24%27%
.169.219.0502%22%32%
#9Jase BowenJase BowenRHB
.165.292.12710%37%30%
.170.275.1058%38%29%
.144.257.1139%33%41%
.118.211.0938%29%56%
.113.194.0817%27%60%
.123.219.0968%28%50%
.153.258.1059%33%41%
.139.225.0868%31%48%
SF Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
SF hitters vsNick Pivetta(SD)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Drew GilbertDrew GilbertLHB
.247.413.1666%39%19%
.254.390.1365%40%18%
.216.363.1475%34%26%
.202.341.1395%34%31%
.192.313.1215%32%34%
.210.353.1435%33%28%
.210.334.1245%32%29%
.190.290.1004%29%34%
#2Rafael DeversRafael DeversLHB
.271.567.29614%56%25%
.279.536.25711%57%23%
.237.499.26212%49%33%
.222.469.24712%49%40%
.211.430.21911%46%43%
.230.485.25512%48%36%
.230.459.22911%45%37%
.208.399.19110%42%43%
#3Bryce EldridgeBryce EldridgeLHB
.280.492.21212%56%23%
.288.465.17710%57%22%
.246.433.18711%50%31%
.230.407.17711%49%37%
.219.373.1549%47%40%
.238.421.18311%48%33%
.238.399.16110%46%34%
.216.347.1319%42%40%
#4Jonah CoxJonah CoxRHB
.298.498.2008%44%30%
.307.470.1636%44%29%
.261.438.1777%38%41%
.214.361.1476%33%56%
.204.331.1276%32%60%
.222.373.1516%33%51%
.278.441.1638%39%41%
.251.384.1337%36%48%
#5Turner HillTurner HillLHB
.251.350.0994%35%12%
.258.330.0723%35%12%
.220.308.0883%31%17%
.206.289.0833%30%20%
.196.265.0693%29%22%
.213.299.0863%30%18%
.213.283.0703%28%18%
.193.246.0533%26%22%
#6Jung Hoo LeeJung Hoo LeeLHB
.293.436.1433%34%11%
.301.412.1112%35%10%
.257.384.1272%30%14%
.240.361.1212%30%17%
.229.331.1022%28%19%
.249.373.1242%29%16%
.249.353.1042%28%16%
.225.307.0822%26%18%
#7Nate FurmanNate FurmanLHB
.135.139.0040%18%15%
.139.132.0000%18%14%
.119.123.0040%16%21%
.111.115.0040%16%25%
.106.106.0000%15%27%
.115.119.0040%15%22%
.115.113.0000%15%23%
.104.098.0000%14%27%
#8Drew CavanaughDrew CavanaughLHB
.256.314.0585%31%23%
.264.297.0334%32%22%
.224.276.0524%28%31%
.210.260.0504%27%38%
.200.238.0384%26%40%
.218.269.0514%27%34%
.218.254.0364%25%35%
.197.221.0244%23%40%
#9Christian KossChristian KossRHB
.239.362.1236%30%23%
.246.342.0964%31%22%
.210.318.1085%27%32%
.172.262.0904%23%43%
.164.240.0764%22%46%
.178.271.0934%23%39%
.223.321.0985%27%32%
.202.279.0774%25%37%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHand★SpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Rafael Devers
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M44.000633N/A37N/A.258.340.525.267.36710.9%93.0
Jackson Merrill
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+579M35.000610N/A25N/A.248.299.439.191.3186.4%91.3
Fernando Tatis Jr.
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+615M37.000645N/A21N/A.286.356.457.171.3529.3%92.9
Manny Machado
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+782M34.000617N/A26N/A.221.310.407.186.31411.7%90.4
Jonah Cox
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+816M37.000113N/A4N/A.284.324.461.177.3415.3%90.4
Drew Gilbert
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+925M36.000366N/A9N/A.235.321.382.160.3119.3%90.0
Ethan Salas
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1192M32.00014N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A.000N/A0.0%89.8
Xander Bogaerts
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+1267M28.000560N/A11N/A.224.323.326.102.29512.3%89.2
Jake Cronenworth
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M31.000368N/A5N/A.209.293.288.131.2689.2%89.3
Jase Bowen
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1267M30.00095N/A2N/A.157.202.270.113.2103.2%88.8
Nate Furman
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+1192M35.00037N/AN/AN/A.129.229.129.000.18210.8%89.8
Christian Koss
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1287M32.000173N/A4N/A.228.278.335.104.2745.2%88.6
Sung-Mun Song
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1422M27.000144N/A1N/A.189.291.246.057.25012.5%87.4
Freddy Fermin
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1351M28.000249N/A4N/A.197.272.312.088.2638.0%88.2
Bryce Eldridge
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1397M30.000429N/A16N/A.267.359.456.072.35612.8%87.8
Turner Hill
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1374M30.00086N/AN/AN/A.239.337.324.085.30011.6%88.1
Jung Hoo Lee
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1447M38.000551N/A9N/A.279.321.404.125.3174.9%87.7
Drew Cavanaugh
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1447M30.000145N/A1N/A.244.324.291.047.28410.3%87.2
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Nick Pivetta
Nick Pivetta
SD · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season21.083.182—.182.0000.9500.007.2%22.6%31.3%19.8%22.6%11.14——7.8%33.3%31.4%——
vs LHB11.347.227.250.227.0001.1500.006.4%22.6%29.8%—22.6%11.12——7.8%33.3%31.4%——
vs RHB9.736.121.250.121.0000.7200.008.3%22.6%33.3%—22.6%11.17——7.8%33.3%31.4%——
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
L3021.083.182—.182.0000.9500.007.2%22.6%31.3%—22.6%11.14——7.8%33.3%31.4%——
L1513.046.133—.133.0000.5400.002.2%22.6%30.4%—22.6%9.69——7.8%33.3%31.4%——
Logan Webb
Logan Webb
SF · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season155.7644.234—.295.0611.15120.696.2%21.5%19.7%13.6%21.5%7.34——5.6%38.9%20.2%——
vs LHB91.3386.239.278.305.0661.1980.795.7%21.5%19.7%—21.5%7.49——5.6%38.9%20.2%——
vs RHB63.0258.217.257.267.0501.1140.577.0%21.5%19.8%—21.5%7.29——5.6%38.9%20.2%——
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
L3022.7106.290—.387.0971.5431.197.5%21.5%22.6%—21.5%9.53——5.6%38.9%20.2%——
L1514.066.293—.397.1041.5721.297.6%21.5%22.7%—21.5%9.64——5.6%38.9%20.2%——
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Nick Pivetta
Nick Pivetta
SD · RHP · 6 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball53.8%—.187.266.333.146—0.0%25.3%30.9%25.9%0.0%94.1——0.0%54.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball20.8%—.216.275.353.137—0.0%16.2%21.1%16.4%0.0%78.9——0.0%43.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter12.4%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%91.1——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper11.3%—.185.229.261.076—0.0%37.4%32.0%22.2%0.0%81.7——0.0%22.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker1.2%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%93.3——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider0.6%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.9——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Logan Webb
Logan Webb
SF · RHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Sinker29.3%—.229.313.354.125—0.0%11.9%9.2%17.1%0.0%92.1——0.0%51.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup24.1%—.250.297.340.090—0.0%27.8%25.3%16.3%0.0%85.9——0.0%33.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper19.9%—.205.276.295.090—0.0%23.5%27.6%23.3%0.0%84.2——0.0%32.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam13.6%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%92.3——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter13.1%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%89.8——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-09-13 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Sep 2026