Clutch Algorithm
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MIA
MIA@STL
FIRST PITCH
STL
Game 12 of 15 Sat · Jun 27, 11:15 PM
CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · MIA vs Andre Pallante · STL vs Ryan Gusto

#1Kyle Stowers
Kyle StowersLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
MIA· 1Bvs STL RHP Pallante
🔥 Elite
Test
80
Ceil
88
Likely
69
kHR
82
Zone
48
Form
100%
EV
92.4
Brl%
12.8%
ISO
.256
xwOBA
.429
xwOBAc
.560
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
5.5%
SwtSp%
33.8%
HH%
49.2%
strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .256, pull-side power+424MODEL
#2Jordan Walker
Jordan WalkerRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
STL· RFvs MIA RHP Gusto
🔥 Elite
Test
80
Ceil
98
Likely
74
kHR
83
Zone
54
Form
97%
EV
93.8
Brl%
13.4%
ISO
.228
xwOBA
.360
xwOBAc
.532
SwStr%
16.3%
PullBrl
5.2%
SwtSp%
34.8%
HH%
50.9%
strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .228, 93.8 EV+424MODEL
#3Alec Burleson
Alec BurlesonLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
STL· 1Bvs MIA RHP Gusto
🟢 Strong
Test
70
Ceil
93
Likely
71
kHR
73
Zone
60
Form
75%
EV
91.8
Brl%
10.5%
ISO
.200
xwOBA
.387
xwOBAc
.568
SwStr%
10.0%
PullBrl
4.9%
SwtSp%
33.7%
HH%
48.4%
strong Barrel 10%, power ISO .200, on-platoon+505MODEL
#4Bryan Torres
Bryan TorresLHB#7 · Secondary Power
STL· 3Bvs MIA RHP Gusto
🟢 Strong
Test
66
Ceil
89
Likely
67
kHR
69
Zone
56
Form
74%
EV
90.7
Brl%
9.3%
ISO
.186
xwOBA
.361
xwOBAc
.443
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.8%
SwtSp%
32.8%
HH%
44.0%
on-platoon+589MODEL
#5Heriberto Hernández
Heriberto HernándezRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
MIA· LFvs STL RHP Pallante
🟠 Longshot
Test
46
Ceil
59
Likely
48
kHR
56
Zone
35
Form
66%
EV
90.3
Brl%
8.6%
ISO
.172
xwOBA
.378
xwOBAc
.485
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.5%
SwtSp%
32.6%
HH%
42.9%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+863MODEL
#6Griffin Conine
Griffin ConineLHB#7 · Secondary Power
MIA· DHvs STL RHP Pallante
🟠 Longshot
Test
46
Ceil
58
Likely
47
kHR
56
Zone
34
Form
53%
EV
90.1
Brl%
8.2%
ISO
.165
xwOBA
.353
xwOBAc
.462
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.4%
SwtSp%
32.5%
HH%
42.4%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+873MODEL
#7JJ Wetherholt
JJ WetherholtLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
STL· 2Bvs MIA RHP Gusto
🟠 Longshot
Test
44
Ceil
85
Likely
60
kHR
53
Zone
56
Form
62%
EV
90.0
Brl%
7.1%
ISO
.149
xwOBA
.351
xwOBAc
.477
SwStr%
9.1%
PullBrl
2.9%
SwtSp%
35.1%
HH%
44.2%
no standout edge+960MODEL
#8Iván Herrera
Iván HerreraRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
STL· DHvs MIA RHP Gusto
🟠 Longshot
Test
44
Ceil
85
Likely
60
kHR
53
Zone
54
Form
58%
EV
89.8
Brl%
7.0%
ISO
.157
xwOBA
.369
xwOBAc
.470
SwStr%
8.6%
PullBrl
2.6%
SwtSp%
30.7%
HH%
42.9%
no standout edge+960MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — MIA
vs Andre Pallante (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

MIAMIA
vs Andre Pallante (STL)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — STL
vs Ryan Gusto (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

STLSTL
vs Ryan Gusto (MIA)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
MIA vs Andre Pallante
9 hitters · primary stack for the away offense
MIA

MIA hitters

vsAndre Pallante(STLSTL)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBMIAvs STL RHP Pallante#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M80.288.348.000100%82.01,782274.256.429.56011.3%5.5%92.412.8%33.8%33.1%49.2%16.669
RHBMIAvs STL RHP Pallante#4 · Premium RBI/Power+863M46.259.235.00066%56.11,147179.172.378.48511.3%3.5%90.38.6%32.6%31.4%42.9%15.148
LHBMIAvs STL RHP Pallante#7 · Secondary Power+873M46.257.634.00053%55.633554.165.353.46211.3%3.4%90.18.2%32.5%31.3%42.4%15.047
RHBMIAvs STL RHP Pallante#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1192M32.255.835.00043%45.61,342271.141.338.5189.8%2.2%89.96.9%30.1%22.5%44.2%6.743
LHBMIAvs STL RHP Pallante#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1158M32.254.234.00062%46.510515.154.284.36511.3%3.1%89.87.7%32.3%31.1%41.5%14.842
RHBMIAvs STL RHP Pallante#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1158M32.255.833.00046%46.41,334272.153.329.44111.3%3.1%89.87.6%32.3%31.1%41.5%14.843
LHBMIAvs STL RHP Pallante#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1175M32.255.633.00055%45.851586.143.344.45011.3%2.9%89.67.1%32.1%30.9%40.7%14.642
SHBMIAvs STL RHP Pallante#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1308M30.249.037.00039%41.51,334254.131.328.4636.4%1.6%87.05.0%38.8%21.7%30.2%10.340
LHBMIAvs STL RHP Pallante#6 · Secondary Power+1374M30.246.729.00028%39.61,295201.101.301.3748.1%1.4%86.83.4%28.3%22.9%34.6%17.936
STL vs Ryan Gusto
9 hitters · primary stack for the home offense
STL

STL hitters

vsRyan Gusto(MIAMIA)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
RHBSTLvs MIA RHP Gusto#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M80.297.854.00097%83.01,303222.228.360.53216.3%5.2%93.813.4%34.8%25.4%50.9%12.174
LHBSTLvs MIA RHP Gusto#3 · Premium RBI/Power+505M70.292.760.00075%73.11,330255.200.387.56810.0%4.9%91.810.5%33.7%29.1%48.4%11.971
LHBSTLvs MIA RHP Gusto#7 · Secondary Power+589M66.288.656.00074%69.019135.186.361.44311.3%3.8%90.79.3%32.8%31.7%44.0%15.367
LHBSTLvs MIA RHP Gusto#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+960M44.285.156.00062%53.01,334240.149.351.4779.1%2.9%90.07.1%35.1%30.2%44.2%13.660
RHBSTLvs MIA RHP Gusto#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+960M44.285.354.00058%52.91,396229.157.369.4708.6%2.6%89.87.0%30.7%19.5%42.9%7.760
LHBSTLvs MIA RHP Gusto#5 · Premium RBI/Power+997M44.282.652.00046%51.92,274390.127.344.41411.3%2.5%89.26.3%31.9%30.5%39.5%14.358
LHBSTLvs MIA RHP Gusto#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1037M44.276.151.00040%50.917928.111.218.25511.3%2.2%88.85.5%31.7%30.2%38.3%14.055
RHBSTLvs MIA RHP Gusto#6 · Secondary Power+1158M42.274.951.00025%46.81,170206.091.303.4229.0%1.0%87.43.3%33.2%16.1%33.2%12.053
LHBSTLvs MIA RHP Gusto#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1141M42.274.649.00028%47.125438.071.271.30411.3%1.4%87.83.5%31.1%29.4%35.3%13.353
MIA Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
MIA hitters vsAndre Pallante(STL)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Xavier EdwardsXavier EdwardsSHB
.308.459.1516%33%13%
.316.433.1174%34%13%
.270.404.1345%29%18%
.240.361.1215%28%23%
.229.332.1034%26%24%
.249.374.1255%27%20%
.275.391.1165%28%19%
.249.340.0914%26%22%
#2Otto LopezOtto LopezRHB
.357.522.1658%48%18%
.367.493.1266%49%17%
.313.459.1467%42%24%
.256.378.1226%37%33%
.244.347.1035%35%35%
.266.391.1256%36%29%
.332.462.1307%43%24%
.301.402.1016%39%28%
#3Kyle StowersKyle StowersLHB
.235.458.22312%57%30%
.242.432.1909%58%29%
.206.403.19710%50%41%
.193.378.18510%50%49%
.183.347.1649%47%53%
.200.392.19211%49%44%
.200.371.17110%46%45%
.181.322.1419%43%53%
#4Heriberto HernándezHeriberto HernándezRHB
.240.447.20711%54%28%
.247.422.1758%55%27%
.211.393.1829%47%38%
.173.324.1518%41%53%
.164.297.1337%39%56%
.179.335.1568%40%47%
.224.396.17210%48%38%
.202.344.1429%44%45%
#5Owen CaissieOwen CaissieLHB
.239.459.22016%50%30%
.246.433.18713%51%29%
.210.404.19414%44%41%
.196.379.18314%44%49%
.187.348.16113%42%53%
.203.393.19014%43%44%
.204.371.16714%41%45%
.184.323.13912%38%53%
#6Jakob MarseeJakob MarseeLHB
.208.324.1164%37%17%
.214.306.0923%38%16%
.182.285.1033%33%23%
.170.268.0983%33%28%
.162.246.0843%31%30%
.177.277.1003%32%25%
.177.262.0853%30%26%
.160.228.0683%28%30%
#7Griffin ConineGriffin ConineLHB
.223.491.26821%57%43%
.229.464.23516%58%41%
.195.432.23718%50%58%
.183.406.22318%50%70%
.174.373.19916%47%75%
.189.420.23118%48%63%
.189.398.20917%46%64%
.171.346.17515%42%75%
#8Javier SanojaJavier SanojaRHB
.261.384.1231%33%11%
.269.363.0941%33%10%
.229.338.1091%29%15%
.188.278.0901%25%20%
.179.255.0761%24%22%
.195.288.0931%24%18%
.243.341.0981%29%15%
.220.296.0761%27%17%
#9Joe MackJoe MackLHB
.272.437.16510%43%20%
.280.413.1338%44%19%
.238.385.1479%38%27%
.223.361.1389%38%32%
.212.332.1208%36%34%
.231.374.1439%37%29%
.231.354.1239%35%29%
.209.308.0998%32%34%
STL Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
STL hitters vsRyan Gusto(MIA)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1JJ WetherholtJJ WetherholtLHB
.275.447.1728%47%18%
.283.422.1396%48%17%
.241.393.1527%42%24%
.226.369.1437%42%29%
.215.339.1246%39%31%
.234.383.1497%41%26%
.234.362.1287%38%26%
.212.315.1036%35%31%
#2Iván HerreraIván HerreraRHB
.274.454.1808%46%17%
.282.428.1466%47%16%
.240.399.1597%41%23%
.197.328.1316%36%31%
.187.301.1145%34%34%
.204.340.1366%35%28%
.255.402.1477%41%23%
.231.349.1186%38%27%
#3Alec BurlesonAlec BurlesonLHB
.302.529.22712%52%17%
.311.500.1899%53%16%
.265.465.20010%46%23%
.248.437.18910%46%28%
.236.401.1659%43%30%
.257.453.19610%45%25%
.257.428.17110%42%25%
.233.372.1399%39%30%
#4Jordan WalkerJordan WalkerRHB
.304.563.25915%55%27%
.313.531.21812%56%25%
.267.495.22813%49%36%
.219.407.18811%42%49%
.208.374.16610%40%53%
.227.422.19512%41%44%
.284.498.21414%49%36%
.256.433.17712%45%42%
#5Lars NootbaarLars NootbaarLHB
.302.531.22915%60%15%
.311.502.19111%61%14%
.265.467.20213%53%20%
.248.439.19113%53%24%
.236.403.16711%50%25%
.257.455.19813%51%21%
.257.430.17312%49%22%
.233.374.14111%45%25%
#6Masyn WinnMasyn WinnRHB
.257.364.1074%36%18%
.265.344.0793%37%17%
.225.320.0953%32%25%
.185.264.0793%28%34%
.176.242.0663%26%36%
.192.273.0813%27%30%
.240.322.0823%32%25%
.217.280.0633%30%29%
#7Bryan TorresBryan TorresLHB
.245.453.2086%27%18%
.252.427.1755%28%17%
.214.398.1845%24%24%
.201.374.1735%24%29%
.191.343.1525%22%31%
.208.387.1796%23%26%
.208.366.1585%22%26%
.188.318.1305%20%31%
#8Jimmy CrooksJimmy CrooksLHB
.179.299.1207%52%24%
.184.283.0995%53%23%
.156.263.1076%46%33%
.146.247.1016%46%39%
.139.227.0885%43%42%
.152.256.1046%45%35%
.152.242.0906%42%36%
.137.211.0745%39%42%
#9Nathan ChurchNathan ChurchLHB
.279.441.16210%34%20%
.287.416.1298%35%19%
.245.388.1439%30%28%
.229.364.1359%30%33%
.218.334.1168%28%35%
.237.377.1409%29%30%
.238.357.1198%28%30%
.215.310.0957%25%35%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Kyle Stowers
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M48.000240N/A8N/A.224.314.424.256.3219.6%92.4
Jordan Walker
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M54.000330N/A18N/A.290.342.521.228.3717.0%93.8
Alec Burleson
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+505M60.000337N/A13N/A.288.353.490.200.3648.6%91.8
Bryan Torres
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+589M56.00049N/A2N/A.233.313.419.186.32210.2%90.7
Heriberto Hernández
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+863M35.000174N/A8N/A.229.299.414.172.3138.6%90.3
Griffin Conine
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+873M34.00036N/A2N/A.212.278.455.165.3185.6%90.1
JJ Wetherholt
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+960M56.000338N/A12N/A.262.361.414.149.34510.4%90.0
Iván Herrera
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+960M54.000354N/A10N/A.261.404.420.157.36913.6%89.8
Lars Nootbaar
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+997M52.00070N/A2N/A.288.386.492.127.37614.3%89.2
Jimmy Crooks
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1037M51.00053N/A1N/A.170.264.277.111.2509.4%88.8
Masyn Winn
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1158M51.000297N/A3N/A.245.320.337.091.2968.4%87.4
Nathan Church
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1141M49.000199N/A5N/A.266.312.408.071.3155.5%87.8
Otto Lopez
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1192M35.000340N/A6N/A.340.374.483.141.3724.7%89.9
Owen Caissie
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1158M34.000217N/A9N/A.228.286.425.154.3067.4%89.8
Javier Sanoja
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1158M33.000190N/A2N/A.249.291.356.153.2865.8%89.8
Joe Mack
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1175M33.000128N/A4N/A.259.317.405.143.3207.0%89.6
Xavier Edwards
SHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1308M37.000338N/A6N/A.293.374.425.131.35011.8%87.0
Jakob Marsee
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1374M29.000327N/A4N/A.198.321.300.101.29013.1%86.8
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Ryan Gusto
Ryan Gusto
MIA · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season15.070.270.365.0951.6021.2010.0%21.9%17.1%5.3%21.9%7.2011.5%47.5%21.3%
vs LHB10.351.311.363.378.0671.9410.8711.8%21.9%13.7%21.9%6.1011.5%47.5%21.3%
vs RHB7.733.250.291.344.0941.1711.173.0%21.9%27.3%21.9%10.5711.5%47.5%21.3%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3015.070.270.365.0951.6021.2010.0%21.9%17.1%21.9%7.2011.5%47.5%21.3%
L1513.060.259.370.1111.5421.3810.0%21.9%18.3%21.9%7.6211.5%47.5%21.3%
Andre Pallante
Andre Pallante
STL · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season82.7346.232.317.0851.1990.987.2%21.7%18.5%11.6%21.7%6.976.5%35.1%19.5%
vs LHB43.0182.240.302.329.0891.2851.058.2%21.7%16.5%21.7%6.286.5%35.1%19.5%
vs RHB39.3164.214.265.292.0781.0940.926.1%21.7%20.7%21.7%7.786.5%35.1%19.5%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3027.7113.229.286.0571.0520.654.4%21.7%18.6%21.7%6.836.5%35.1%19.5%
L1519.072.191.235.0440.7910.472.8%21.7%18.1%21.7%6.166.5%35.1%19.5%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Ryan Gusto
Ryan Gusto
MIA · RHP · 7 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball26.8%.217.322.385.1680.0%27.6%28.3%19.7%0.0%93.90.0%48.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup19.7%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker13.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%92.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter12.6%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%89.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper11.0%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider10.0%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball6.1%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%79.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Andre Pallante
Andre Pallante
STL · RHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball30.3%.269.350.441.1720.0%12.7%5.8%8.1%0.0%95.10.0%44.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider29.9%.188.247.292.1040.0%32.0%31.4%21.9%0.0%87.60.0%35.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker19.0%.239.330.313.0740.0%14.7%12.5%13.5%0.0%95.30.0%20.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Knuckle Curve17.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%77.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Splitter3.0%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-06-27 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Jun 2026