Clutch Algorithm
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ARI
ARI@TB
FIRST PITCH
TB
Game 6 of 15 Sun · Jun 28, 5:40 PM
CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · ARI vs Drew Rasmussen · TB vs Merrill Kelly

#1Corbin Carroll
Corbin CarrollLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
ARI· RFvs TB RHP Rasmussen
🟢 Strong
Test
75
Ceil
79
Likely
64
kHR
79
Zone
43
Form
87%
EV
91.6
Brl%
12.8%
ISO
.261
xwOBA
.363
xwOBAc
.510
SwStr%
13.2%
PullBrl
5.7%
SwtSp%
30.6%
HH%
48.4%
strong Barrel 13%, elite ISO .261, off-platoon but elite power+424MODEL
#2Junior Caminero
Junior CamineroRHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
TB· 3Bvs ARI RHP Kelly
🟢 Strong
Test
67
Ceil
44
Likely
52
kHR
74
Zone
45
Form
100%
EV
93.3
Brl%
13.0%
ISO
.242
xwOBA
.369
xwOBAc
.521
SwStr%
9.1%
PullBrl
5.7%
SwtSp%
26.8%
HH%
52.1%
strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .242, 93.3 EV+479MODEL
#3Ketel Marte
Ketel MarteSHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
ARI· 2Bvs TB RHP Rasmussen
🟠 Longshot
Test
57
Ceil
58
Likely
52
kHR
65
Zone
40
Form
74%
EV
91.3
Brl%
10.6%
ISO
.194
xwOBA
.368
xwOBAc
.547
SwStr%
9.9%
PullBrl
5.5%
SwtSp%
32.3%
HH%
45.9%
strong Barrel 11% (matchup soft)+655MODEL
#4Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
TB· RFvs ARI RHP Kelly
🟠 Longshot
Test
49
Ceil
35
Likely
40
kHR
58
Zone
34
Form
70%
EV
90.3
Brl%
8.9%
ISO
.179
xwOBA
.299
xwOBAc
.398
SwStr%
14.0%
PullBrl
4.8%
SwtSp%
28.0%
HH%
39.4%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+807MODEL
#5Max Kepler
Max KeplerLHB#7 · Secondary Power
ARI· LFvs TB RHP Rasmussen
🟠 Longshot
Test
45
Ceil
54
Likely
46
kHR
55
Zone
35
Form
70%
EV
90.4
Brl%
8.8%
ISO
.175
xwOBA
.347
xwOBAc
.411
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.6%
SwtSp%
32.6%
HH%
43.1%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+883MODEL
#6Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan ArandaLHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
TB· 1Bvs ARI RHP Kelly
🟠 Longshot
Test
45
Ceil
39
Likely
45
kHR
57
Zone
48
Form
72%
EV
90.7
Brl%
10.4%
ISO
.172
xwOBA
.367
xwOBAc
.496
SwStr%
9.6%
PullBrl
2.8%
SwtSp%
37.6%
HH%
44.8%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+825MODEL
#7Yandy Díaz
Yandy DíazRHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
TB· DHvs ARI RHP Kelly
🔴 Fade
Test
35
Ceil
37
Likely
40
kHR
48
Zone
45
Form
67%
EV
90.6
Brl%
7.7%
ISO
.183
xwOBA
.372
xwOBAc
.525
SwStr%
6.5%
PullBrl
1.6%
SwtSp%
28.6%
HH%
46.3%
off-platoon+1125MODEL
#8Cedric Mullins
Cedric MullinsLHB#6 · Secondary Power
TB· CFvs ARI RHP Kelly
🔴 Fade
Test
33
Ceil
29
Likely
33
kHR
42
Zone
36
Form
43%
EV
88.1
Brl%
3.8%
ISO
.116
xwOBA
.267
xwOBAc
.348
SwStr%
10.7%
PullBrl
1.7%
SwtSp%
28.9%
HH%
30.3%
low Barrel, off-platoon+1287MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — ARI
vs Drew Rasmussen (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

ARIARI
vs Drew Rasmussen (TB)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — TB
vs Merrill Kelly (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

TBTB
vs Merrill Kelly (ARI)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
ARI vs Drew Rasmussen
9 hitters · primary stack for the away offense
ARI

ARI hitters

vsDrew Rasmussen(TBTB)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBARIvs TB RHP Rasmussen#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M74.779.443.00087%78.51,299220.261.363.51013.2%5.7%91.612.8%30.6%28.4%48.4%13.664
SHBARIvs TB RHP Rasmussen#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+655M56.757.840.00074%65.01,322263.194.368.5479.9%5.5%91.310.6%32.3%24.8%45.9%11.452
LHBARIvs TB RHP Rasmussen#7 · Secondary Power+883M44.754.135.00070%55.51,849324.175.347.41111.3%3.6%90.48.8%32.6%31.5%43.1%15.246
RHBARIvs TB RHP Rasmussen#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1192M30.752.833.00056%45.21,205224.148.372.50111.3%3.0%89.77.4%32.2%31.0%41.1%14.741
LHBARIvs TB RHP Rasmussen#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1192M30.751.533.00057%45.451173.150.330.43811.3%3.1%89.87.5%32.2%31.0%41.2%14.741
RHBARIvs TB RHP Rasmussen#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1267M30.747.231.00039%42.820336.109.297.31611.3%2.2%88.75.5%31.6%30.2%38.2%14.038
RHBARIvs TB RHP Rasmussen#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1374M30.747.432.00028%39.31,069198.127.333.48711.5%0.9%89.32.5%42.3%21.9%37.3%13.537
SHBARIvs TB RHP Rasmussen#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1422M28.743.733.00032%38.21,283229.115.331.4274.6%1.4%86.93.0%34.5%21.8%31.2%12.336
RHBARIvs TB RHP Rasmussen#6 · Secondary Power+1287M28.742.335.00052%41.91,139201.147.304.42510.6%2.7%85.26.4%35.8%26.0%31.0%19.337
TB vs Merrill Kelly
9 hitters · primary stack for the home offense
TB

TB hitters

vsMerrill Kelly(ARIARI)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
RHBTBvs ARI RHP Kelly#3 · Premium RBI/Power+479M66.744.445.000100%74.31,349237.242.369.5219.1%5.7%93.313.0%26.8%21.3%52.1%7.752
LHBTBvs ARI RHP Kelly#4 · Premium RBI/Power+807M48.735.434.00070%58.01,232191.179.299.39814.0%4.8%90.38.9%28.0%28.5%39.4%16.140
LHBTBvs ARI RHP Kelly#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+825M44.738.748.00072%57.41,330207.172.367.4969.6%2.8%90.710.4%37.6%30.0%44.8%13.645
RHBTBvs ARI RHP Kelly#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1125M34.737.245.00067%48.21,303246.183.372.5256.5%1.6%90.67.7%28.6%21.8%46.3%6.240
LHBTBvs ARI RHP Kelly#6 · Secondary Power+1287M32.729.136.00043%41.81,049182.116.267.34810.7%1.7%88.13.8%28.9%32.1%30.3%28.233
SHBTBvs ARI RHP Kelly#7 · Secondary Power+1287M30.731.037.00031%42.11,236212.099.301.38011.3%2.0%88.55.0%31.5%30.0%37.4%13.834
LHBTBvs ARI RHP Kelly#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1248M30.734.438.00043%43.318733.119.389.55911.3%2.4%89.05.9%31.8%30.4%38.9%14.136
LHBTBvs ARI RHP Kelly#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1585M28.722.839.0005%34.01,182249.050.255.3845.0%0.0%84.10.0%24.3%14.1%13.4%1.729
LHBTBvs ARI RHP Kelly#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1422M28.728.035.00012%38.241059.057.274.25111.3%1.1%87.42.9%30.9%29.1%34.3%13.031
ARI Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
ARI hitters vsDrew Rasmussen(TB)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Ketel MarteKetel MarteSHB
.278.498.22012%50%17%
.286.470.1849%51%16%
.244.438.19410%44%24%
.217.392.17510%42%30%
.207.360.1539%39%32%
.225.406.18110%41%27%
.249.424.17510%43%25%
.225.369.1449%39%29%
#2Geraldo PerdomoGeraldo PerdomoSHB
.245.365.1203%34%10%
.252.345.0932%34%10%
.214.321.1073%30%14%
.191.287.0962%28%17%
.182.264.0822%27%18%
.198.297.0992%28%16%
.219.311.0923%29%14%
.198.270.0722%27%17%
#3Corbin CarrollCorbin CarrollLHB
.293.580.28714%52%24%
.301.548.24711%53%23%
.257.510.25312%46%33%
.240.479.23912%46%40%
.229.440.21111%43%42%
.249.496.24712%45%35%
.249.469.22012%42%36%
.225.408.18310%39%42%
#4Gabriel MorenoGabriel MorenoRHB
.292.480.18811%49%15%
.300.453.1538%50%14%
.256.422.1669%43%20%
.210.347.1378%38%27%
.199.319.1207%36%29%
.217.359.1428%37%24%
.272.425.15310%44%20%
.246.369.1238%40%23%
#5Adrian Del CastilloAdrian Del CastilloLHB
.200.332.1327%45%24%
.205.313.1086%46%23%
.175.292.1176%39%33%
.164.274.1106%39%40%
.156.251.0956%37%42%
.170.284.1146%38%36%
.170.268.0986%36%36%
.153.233.0805%34%42%
#6Nolan ArenadoNolan ArenadoRHB
.250.418.1687%34%20%
.257.395.1386%35%19%
.219.368.1496%30%27%
.180.303.1235%26%37%
.171.278.1075%25%40%
.186.313.1276%26%33%
.233.370.1377%30%27%
.210.322.1126%28%32%
#7Max KeplerMax KeplerLHB
#8LuJames GrooverLuJames GrooverRHB
.195.326.13113%53%13%
.201.308.10710%54%13%
.171.287.11611%46%18%
.140.236.09610%40%25%
.133.217.0849%38%27%
.145.244.09910%39%22%
.182.289.10712%47%18%
.164.251.08710%43%21%
#9Tommy TroyTommy TroyRHB
.253.443.19014%32%22%
.260.418.15811%33%21%
.222.389.16712%28%30%
.182.321.13910%25%42%
.173.294.1219%23%44%
.188.332.14411%24%37%
.236.392.15613%28%30%
.213.341.12811%26%35%
TB Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
TB hitters vsMerrill Kelly(ARI)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Yandy DíazYandy DíazRHB
.348.553.2059%50%12%
.357.522.1657%51%12%
.305.486.1817%44%17%
.250.400.1507%38%23%
.238.367.1296%36%24%
.259.415.1567%37%20%
.324.490.1668%44%17%
.293.426.1337%41%19%
#2Jonathan ArandaJonathan ArandaLHB
.301.494.19312%48%19%
.310.466.1569%49%17%
.264.434.17010%42%25%
.247.408.16110%42%30%
.235.374.1399%40%32%
.256.422.16610%41%27%
.256.399.14310%39%28%
.232.347.1159%36%32%
#3Junior CamineroJunior CamineroRHB
.299.561.26214%56%19%
.308.529.22111%57%18%
.262.493.23112%49%25%
.215.406.19111%43%35%
.205.372.1679%41%37%
.223.420.19711%42%31%
.279.497.21813%50%25%
.252.432.18011%46%30%
#4Victor Mesa Jr.Victor Mesa Jr.LHB
.189.389.20012%42%25%
.194.367.1739%43%23%
.166.342.17611%37%34%
.155.321.16611%37%40%
.147.295.1489%35%43%
.161.333.17211%36%36%
.161.315.15410%34%37%
.145.274.1299%31%43%
#5Chandler SimpsonChandler SimpsonLHB
.277.339.0620%15%9%
.285.320.0350%15%9%
.243.298.0550%13%12%
.227.280.0530%13%15%
.216.257.0410%12%16%
.236.290.0540%12%13%
.236.274.0380%12%14%
.213.239.0260%11%16%
#6Cedric MullinsCedric MullinsLHB
.214.334.1204%33%19%
.220.315.0953%33%17%
.188.294.1063%29%25%
.176.276.1003%29%30%
.167.253.0863%27%32%
.182.286.1043%28%27%
.182.270.0883%27%28%
.165.235.0703%25%32%
#7Taylor WallsTaylor WallsSHB
.234.320.0863%20%19%
.241.302.0612%20%18%
.205.281.0762%17%26%
.183.252.0692%16%33%
.174.231.0572%16%35%
.190.260.0702%16%29%
.210.272.0622%17%27%
.190.237.0472%16%32%
#8Richie PalaciosRichie PalaciosLHB
.253.347.0944%29%19%
.260.327.0673%30%18%
.222.305.0833%26%26%
.208.286.0783%26%31%
.197.263.0663%24%33%
.215.297.0823%25%28%
.215.281.0663%24%28%
.195.244.0493%22%33%
#9Hunter FeducciaHunter FeducciaLHB
.237.313.0767%38%21%
.244.296.0526%39%20%
.208.275.0676%34%29%
.195.259.0646%34%34%
.185.238.0536%32%37%
.202.268.0666%33%31%
.202.253.0516%31%32%
.182.220.0385%29%37%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Corbin Carroll
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M43.000329N/A13N/A.279.365.537.261.38610.9%91.6
Junior Caminero
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+479M45.000342N/A19N/A.285.377.519.242.38413.2%93.3
Ketel Marte
SHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+655M40.000335N/A13N/A.265.319.461.194.3387.5%91.3
Victor Mesa Jr.
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+807M34.00060N/A3N/A.180.305.360.179.30215.0%90.3
Max Kepler
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+883M35.000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A.175N/AN/A90.4
Jonathan Aranda
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+825M48.000337N/A12N/A.287.386.457.172.36813.1%90.7
Yandy Díaz
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1125M45.000330N/A12N/A.331.412.512.183.4019.7%90.6
Cedric Mullins
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1287M36.000265N/A6N/A.204.290.309.116.2738.7%88.1
Gabriel Moreno
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1192M33.000210N/A6N/A.278.362.444.148.35411.0%89.7
Adrian Del Castillo
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1192M33.000150N/A4N/A.190.253.307.150.2518.0%89.8
LuJames Groover
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1267M31.00049N/A1N/A.186.286.302.109.27110.2%88.7
Tommy Troy
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1374M32.00093N/A3N/A.241.323.410.127.32410.8%89.3
Taylor Walls
SHB#7 · Secondary Power+1287M37.000215N/AN/AN/A.223.325.296.099.28712.1%88.5
Richie Palacios
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1248M38.000188N/A1N/A.241.340.321.119.30411.7%89.0
Geraldo Perdomo
SHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1422M33.000325N/A4N/A.233.349.338.115.31414.8%86.9
Nolan Arenado
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1287M35.000288N/A8N/A.238.313.387.147.3098.0%85.2
Chandler Simpson
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1585M39.000303N/AN/AN/A.264.304.314.050.2775.6%84.1
Hunter Feduccia
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1422M35.000108N/A1N/A.226.311.290.057.27810.2%87.4
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly
ARI · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season75.7335.278.427.1491.52151.789.3%21.3%13.1%6.8%21.3%5.2314.4%42.8%28.4%
vs LHB41.0195.285.396.459.1741.76102.2011.8%21.3%10.8%21.3%4.6114.4%42.8%28.4%
vs RHB33.7140.265.326.379.1141.2851.345.7%21.3%16.4%21.3%6.1514.4%42.8%28.4%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3027.7128.313.496.1831.7072.288.6%21.3%10.2%21.3%4.2314.4%42.8%28.4%
L1517.376.314.400.0861.6221.047.9%21.3%9.2%21.3%3.6314.4%42.8%28.4%
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
TB · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season86.0332.194.279.0850.8890.944.5%25.2%26.8%17.5%25.2%9.316.6%33.6%20.8%
vs LHB48.7204.229.294.339.1101.1571.295.9%25.2%26.5%25.2%9.996.6%33.6%20.8%
vs RHB36.3128.136.250.184.0480.5520.502.3%25.2%27.3%25.2%8.676.6%33.6%20.8%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3031.0114.157.213.0560.7120.584.4%25.2%33.3%25.2%11.036.6%33.6%20.8%
L1520.074.171.214.0430.7510.454.1%25.2%33.8%25.2%11.256.6%33.6%20.8%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly
ARI · RHP · 6 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball25.8%.328.452.641.3130.0%13.5%6.6%8.6%0.0%92.00.0%48.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup25.5%.233.294.360.1270.0%30.2%19.8%17.9%0.0%88.30.0%45.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter15.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%91.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider12.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball11.4%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker9.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%92.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
TB · RHP · 6 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Cutter32.4%.205.260.321.1160.0%26.1%22.9%20.6%0.0%90.10.0%29.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam Fastball26.8%.260.352.479.2190.0%26.6%30.9%21.9%0.0%96.00.0%41.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker21.8%.137.195.192.0550.0%14.4%24.7%22.9%0.0%95.50.0%35.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup11.5%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%90.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball4.4%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%80.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper3.1%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%84.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-06-28 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Jun 2026