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HOU
HOU@TB
FIRST PITCH
TB
Game 6 of 15 Sun · Sep 13, 5:40 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · HOU vs Freddy Peralta · TB vs Hayden Wesneski

#1Yordan Alvarez
Yordan AlvarezLHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
HOU· DHvs TB RHP Peralta
🟢 Strong
Test
79
Ceil
80
Likely
70
kHR
85
Zone
58
Form
100%
EV
94.2
Brl%
16.0%
ISO
.280
xwOBA
.443
xwOBAc
.641
SwStr%
8.7%
PullBrl
6.6%
SwtSp%
41.3%
HH%
52.9%
elite Barrel 16%, elite ISO .280, 94.2 EV+424MODEL
#2Junior Caminero
Junior CamineroRHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
TB· 3Bvs HOU RHP Wesneski
🟢 Strong
Test
67
Ceil
50
Likely
52
kHR
74
Zone
37
Form
100%
EV
92.9
Brl%
13.2%
ISO
.255
xwOBA
.364
xwOBAc
.522
SwStr%
10.6%
PullBrl
6.1%
SwtSp%
26.8%
HH%
50.2%
strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .255+475MODEL
#3Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
TB· RFvs HOU RHP Wesneski
🟠 Longshot
Test
57
Ceil
50
Likely
49
kHR
68
Zone
37
Form
70%
EV
93.0
Brl%
12.4%
ISO
.167
xwOBA
.373
xwOBAc
.538
SwStr%
12.3%
PullBrl
4.3%
SwtSp%
32.7%
HH%
54.0%
strong Barrel 12%, 93.0 EV (matchup soft)+615MODEL
#4Christian Walker
Christian WalkerRHB#7 · Secondary Power
HOU· 1Bvs TB RHP Peralta
🟠 Longshot
Test
49
Ceil
41
Likely
41
kHR
58
Zone
29
Form
76%
EV
88.8
Brl%
9.1%
ISO
.194
xwOBA
.304
xwOBAc
.423
SwStr%
14.5%
PullBrl
3.8%
SwtSp%
31.5%
HH%
40.4%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+807MODEL
#5Cam Smith
Cam SmithRHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot
HOU· RFvs TB RHP Peralta
🟠 Longshot
Test
49
Ceil
44
Likely
44
kHR
61
Zone
32
Form
76%
EV
89.2
Brl%
11.5%
ISO
.190
xwOBA
.324
xwOBAc
.460
SwStr%
14.1%
PullBrl
4.3%
SwtSp%
31.1%
HH%
44.9%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+735MODEL
#6Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan ArandaLHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
TB· 1Bvs HOU RHP Wesneski
🟠 Longshot
Test
49
Ceil
44
Likely
45
kHR
59
Zone
40
Form
63%
EV
91.2
Brl%
9.8%
ISO
.151
xwOBA
.346
xwOBAc
.481
SwStr%
10.6%
PullBrl
2.9%
SwtSp%
38.4%
HH%
45.5%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+774MODEL
#7Jeremy Peña
Jeremy PeñaRHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
HOU· SSvs TB RHP Peralta
🟠 Longshot
Test
45
Ceil
46
Likely
43
kHR
55
Zone
34
Form
62%
EV
90.3
Brl%
8.6%
ISO
.173
xwOBA
.390
xwOBAc
.542
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.5%
SwtSp%
32.6%
HH%
43.0%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+883MODEL
#8Yainer Diaz
Yainer DiazRHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
HOU· Cvs TB RHP Peralta
🟠 Longshot
Test
45
Ceil
43
Likely
42
kHR
55
Zone
34
Form
62%
EV
90.0
Brl%
8.1%
ISO
.161
xwOBA
.330
xwOBAc
.465
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.3%
SwtSp%
32.4%
HH%
42.1%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+904MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — HOU
vs Freddy Peralta (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

HOUHOU
vs Freddy Peralta (TB)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — TB
vs Hayden Wesneski (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

TBTB
vs Hayden Wesneski (HOU)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
HOU + TB · Combined Hitter Matrix
Both lineups in one table · sticky HITTER + TEAM columns · filter to one side with the chips
HOUvsTB

HOU + TB hitters

combined matrix · click any header to sort · click a row for detail
HitterTeamHandMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
HOU Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
HOU hitters vsFreddy Peralta(TB)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Jeremy PeñaJeremy PeñaRHB
.282.485.2037%42%27%
.291.458.1675%43%26%
.247.427.1806%37%37%
.203.351.1485%33%50%
.193.322.1295%31%54%
.210.364.1545%32%45%
.263.430.1676%38%37%
.238.374.1366%35%43%
#2Yordan AlvarezYordan AlvarezLHB
.327.638.31118%57%17%
.336.603.26714%58%16%
.286.561.27515%50%23%
.268.527.25915%50%28%
.255.484.22913%47%29%
.278.546.26816%49%25%
.278.517.23915%46%25%
.251.449.19813%43%29%
#3Isaac ParedesIsaac ParedesRHB
.273.464.1915%32%13%
.281.439.1584%32%12%
.239.408.1695%28%17%
.196.336.1404%24%24%
.187.309.1224%23%25%
.203.348.1454%24%21%
.254.411.1575%28%17%
.230.358.1284%26%20%
#4Jose AltuveJose AltuveRHB
.259.432.1735%35%19%
.267.408.1414%36%18%
.227.380.1534%31%26%
.186.313.1274%27%35%
.177.287.1103%25%37%
.193.324.1314%26%31%
.241.383.1425%31%26%
.218.333.1154%29%30%
#5Yainer DiazYainer DiazRHB
.293.470.1777%42%18%
.301.444.1435%42%17%
.257.413.1566%37%25%
.210.340.1305%32%34%
.200.312.1125%30%37%
.218.352.1345%31%31%
.273.416.1436%37%25%
.247.362.1155%34%29%
#6Daulton VarshoDaulton VarshoLHB
.237.389.1528%40%18%
.244.367.1236%40%17%
.208.342.1347%35%25%
.195.321.1267%35%30%
.185.295.1106%33%32%
.202.333.1317%34%27%
.202.315.1136%32%27%
.182.274.0926%30%32%
#7Christian WalkerChristian WalkerRHB
.236.451.21510%44%25%
.243.426.1838%44%23%
.207.397.1909%38%34%
.170.327.1578%33%46%
.161.300.1397%32%49%
.176.338.1628%33%41%
.220.400.1809%39%34%
.199.348.1498%36%39%
#8Cam SmithCam SmithRHB
.228.437.20913%48%25%
.234.413.17910%49%23%
.200.385.18511%42%33%
.164.317.15310%37%46%
.156.291.1359%35%49%
.170.328.15810%36%41%
.212.388.17612%43%34%
.192.337.14510%39%39%
#9Taylor TrammellTaylor TrammellLHB
.217.387.17014%40%32%
.224.365.14111%41%30%
.190.340.15012%35%44%
.178.320.14212%35%53%
.170.293.12310%33%56%
.185.331.14612%34%47%
.185.313.12811%32%48%
.167.272.10510%30%56%
TB Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
TB hitters vsHayden Wesneski(HOU)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Yandy DíazYandy DíazRHB
.316.501.1858%52%13%
.325.473.1486%53%12%
.277.441.1647%46%17%
.227.363.1366%40%23%
.216.333.1175%38%25%
.235.376.1416%39%21%
.294.444.1507%46%17%
.266.386.1207%43%20%
#2Jonathan ArandaJonathan ArandaLHB
.291.460.16911%49%19%
.299.435.1368%50%18%
.255.405.1509%43%26%
.238.380.1429%43%31%
.227.349.1228%41%33%
.247.394.1479%42%28%
.247.372.1259%40%28%
.224.324.1008%37%33%
#3Junior CamineroJunior CamineroRHB
.293.575.28214%54%20%
.301.543.24211%55%19%
.257.505.24812%48%28%
.210.416.20611%41%38%
.200.382.18210%39%40%
.218.431.21311%41%34%
.273.509.23613%48%28%
.247.443.19612%44%32%
#4Victor Mesa Jr.Victor Mesa Jr.LHB
.266.540.27413%44%21%
.273.510.23710%44%20%
.233.475.24211%38%29%
.218.446.22811%38%34%
.207.410.20310%36%37%
.226.462.23611%37%31%
.226.437.21111%35%32%
.204.380.1769%33%37%
#5Chandler SimpsonChandler SimpsonLHB
.321.383.0620%14%9%
.330.362.0320%15%9%
.282.337.0550%13%12%
.263.317.0540%13%15%
.251.291.0400%12%16%
.273.328.0550%12%13%
.273.310.0370%12%13%
.247.270.0230%11%16%
#6Jonny DeLucaJonny DeLucaRHB
.277.453.1764%32%21%
.285.427.1423%33%20%
.243.398.1553%28%29%
.199.328.1293%25%39%
.189.301.1122%23%42%
.206.339.1333%24%35%
.258.401.1433%28%29%
.233.349.1163%26%33%
#7Richie PalaciosRichie PalaciosLHB
.244.397.1535%31%18%
.251.375.1244%31%17%
.213.350.1374%27%24%
.200.328.1284%27%29%
.190.301.1114%25%31%
.207.340.1334%26%26%
.207.322.1154%25%27%
.187.280.0934%23%31%
#8Nick MadrigalNick MadrigalRHB
.268.299.0310%26%7%
.275.283.0080%27%7%
.235.263.0280%23%10%
.192.217.0250%20%13%
.183.199.0160%19%14%
.199.224.0250%20%12%
.249.265.0160%23%10%
.225.230.0050%22%11%
#9Nick FortesNick FortesRHB
.276.390.1142%37%15%
.284.368.0842%38%14%
.242.343.1012%33%20%
.198.282.0842%29%27%
.189.259.0702%27%29%
.206.292.0862%28%24%
.257.345.0882%33%20%
.232.300.0682%31%23%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHand★SpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Yordan Alvarez
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M58.000636N/A38N/A.311.428.591.280.42215.7%94.2
Junior Caminero
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+475M37.000647N/A40N/A.279.365.532.255.38011.4%92.9
Victor Mesa Jr.
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+615M37.000218N/A13N/A.253.324.500.167.3559.2%93.0
Christian Walker
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+807M29.000587N/A25N/A.225.298.418.194.3137.8%88.8
Cam Smith
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+735M32.000521N/A20N/A.217.283.405.190.3007.5%89.2
Jonathan Aranda
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+774M40.000625N/A19N/A.277.360.426.151.34610.2%91.2
Jeremy Peña
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+883M34.000428N/A17N/A.269.322.449.173.3375.6%90.3
Yainer Diaz
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+904M34.000309N/A11N/A.279.307.435.161.3233.6%90.0
Yandy Díaz
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1125M37.000637N/A22N/A.301.366.464.164.3608.2%91.1
Isaac Paredes
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1267M37.000603N/A20N/A.260.358.430.166.34910.4%86.2
Taylor Trammell
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1210M32.000261N/A7N/A.207.292.358.136.2899.2%89.4
Jonny DeLuca
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1229M31.000320N/A9N/A.264.297.419.123.3124.4%89.1
Richie Palacios
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+1248M31.000365N/A9N/A.232.328.368.119.31311.5%89.0
Nick Fortes
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1248M31.000297N/A4N/A.263.307.361.120.2973.4%89.0
Jose Altuve
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1374M30.000517N/A15N/A.247.308.400.152.3117.7%85.6
Daulton Varsho
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1267M33.000506N/A11N/A.226.289.360.135.2867.7%86.8
Chandler Simpson
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1585M31.000568N/AN/AN/A.306.335.355.050.3054.6%83.7
Nick Madrigal
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1472M28.00056N/AN/AN/A.255.357.277.035.29812.5%86.9
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Hayden Wesneski
Hayden Wesneski
HOU · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season45.7180.201—.256.0551.0330.597.8%24.5%20.0%7.7%24.5%7.09——6.3%40.6%21.9%——
vs LHB27.0108.198.250.257.0591.0020.676.5%24.5%19.4%—24.5%7.00——6.3%40.6%21.9%——
vs RHB18.772.200.254.246.0461.0710.489.7%24.5%20.8%—24.5%7.23——6.3%40.6%21.9%——
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
L3027.0105.177—.208.0310.9310.337.6%24.5%22.9%—24.5%8.00——6.3%40.6%21.9%——
L1518.067.145—.194.0490.7210.506.0%24.5%20.9%—24.5%7.00——6.3%40.6%21.9%——
Freddy Peralta
Freddy Peralta
TB · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season153.0667.253—.368.1151.36231.358.2%26.0%21.3%15.3%26.0%8.35——6.3%39.0%28.6%——
vs LHB99.3426.254.332.383.1291.33171.547.5%26.0%21.4%—26.0%8.24——6.3%39.0%28.6%——
vs RHB53.0241.243.307.326.0831.4361.029.5%26.0%21.2%—26.0%8.66——6.3%39.0%28.6%——
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
L3029.7112.173—.260.0870.7730.914.5%26.0%18.8%—26.0%6.37——6.3%39.0%28.6%——
L1518.066.156—.203.0470.6110.501.5%26.0%19.7%—26.0%6.50——6.3%39.0%28.6%——
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Hayden Wesneski
Hayden Wesneski
HOU · RHP · 6 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Sweeper29.8%—.174.258.348.174—0.0%43.3%46.0%25.8%0.0%81.1——0.0%26.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam24.0%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%93.6——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker17.3%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%92.5——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter15.7%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%89.4——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup12.9%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.5——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball0.3%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%72.6——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Freddy Peralta
Freddy Peralta
TB · RHP · 6 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball52.8%—.278.368.464.186—0.0%21.7%17.7%16.2%0.0%94.2——0.0%49.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup23.0%—.232.295.351.119—0.0%28.8%21.3%17.6%0.0%87.2——0.0%23.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball13.0%—.238.312.465.227—0.0%32.8%30.5%20.9%0.0%79.3——0.0%34.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper5.7%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82.1——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider4.4%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%83.1——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slow Curve1.0%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%74.8——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-09-13 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Sep 2026