Clutch Algorithm
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CT
TEX
TEX@TOR
FIRST PITCH
TOR
Game 3 of 15 Sun · Jun 28, 5:37 PM
CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · TEX vs Shane Bieber · TOR vs Kumar Rocker

#1Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma OkamotoRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
TOR· 3Bvs TEX RHP Rocker
🔥 Elite
Test
81
Ceil
75
Likely
66
kHR
85
Zone
47
Form
100%
EV
92.2
Brl%
14.9%
ISO
.234
xwOBA
.336
xwOBAc
.457
SwStr%
15.1%
PullBrl
7.6%
SwtSp%
35.1%
HH%
50.0%
elite Barrel 15%, power ISO .234, pull-side power+424MODEL
#2Corey Seager
Corey SeagerLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
TEX· SSvs TOR RHP Bieber
🟠 Longshot
Test
59
Ceil
26
Likely
43
kHR
67
Zone
45
Form
87%
EV
91.4
Brl%
10.8%
ISO
.216
xwOBA
.415
xwOBAc
.514
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
4.5%
SwtSp%
33.2%
HH%
46.2%
strong Barrel 11%, power ISO .216 (matchup soft)+626MODEL
#3Brandon Nimmo
Brandon NimmoLHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
TEX· RFvs TOR RHP Bieber
🟠 Longshot
Test
59
Ceil
27
Likely
45
kHR
70
Zone
48
Form
62%
EV
92.6
Brl%
12.9%
ISO
.160
xwOBA
.380
xwOBAc
.555
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.7%
SwtSp%
36.1%
HH%
52.7%
strong Barrel 13% (matchup soft)+579MODEL
#4Joc Pederson
Joc PedersonLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
TEX· DHvs TOR RHP Bieber
🟠 Longshot
Test
55
Ceil
25
Likely
41
kHR
65
Zone
40
Form
89%
EV
92.0
Brl%
10.9%
ISO
.219
xwOBA
.356
xwOBAc
.479
SwStr%
13.2%
PullBrl
4.4%
SwtSp%
32.7%
HH%
49.1%
strong Barrel 11%, power ISO .219 (matchup soft)+661MODEL
#5Jake Burger
Jake BurgerRHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
TEX· 1Bvs TOR RHP Bieber
🟠 Longshot
Test
51
Ceil
22
Likely
38
kHR
61
Zone
36
Form
79%
EV
90.3
Brl%
10.2%
ISO
.195
xwOBA
.314
xwOBAc
.447
SwStr%
17.4%
PullBrl
4.6%
SwtSp%
31.4%
HH%
46.9%
strong Barrel 10% (matchup soft)+735MODEL
#6Yohendrick Piñango
Yohendrick PiñangoLHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot
TOR· LFvs TEX RHP Rocker
🟠 Longshot
Test
47
Ceil
49
Likely
45
kHR
57
Zone
36
Form
64%
EV
90.2
Brl%
8.4%
ISO
.168
xwOBA
.364
xwOBAc
.507
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.4%
SwtSp%
32.5%
HH%
42.6%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+853MODEL
#7Elias Díaz
Elias DíazRHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot
TEX· Cvs TOR RHP Bieber
🟠 Longshot
Test
37
Ceil
23
Likely
36
kHR
50
Zone
45
Form
67%
EV
90.6
Brl%
7.7%
ISO
.183
xwOBA
.372
xwOBAc
.525
SwStr%
6.5%
PullBrl
1.6%
SwtSp%
28.6%
HH%
46.3%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+1079MODEL
#8Josh Jung
Josh JungRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
TEX· 3Bvs TOR RHP Bieber
🔴 Fade
Test
33
Ceil
21
Likely
34
kHR
45
Zone
45
Form
46%
EV
90.3
Brl%
5.4%
ISO
.139
xwOBA
.343
xwOBAc
.503
SwStr%
8.8%
PullBrl
2.3%
SwtSp%
39.2%
HH%
47.1%
off-platoon+1210MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — TEX
vs Shane Bieber (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

TEXTEX
vs Shane Bieber (TOR)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — TOR
vs Kumar Rocker (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

TORTOR
vs Kumar Rocker (TEX)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
TEX vs Shane Bieber
9 hitters · primary stack for the away offense
TEX

TEX hitters

vsShane Bieber(TORTOR)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBTEXvs TOR RHP Bieber#3 · Premium RBI/Power+626M59.325.545.00087%66.81,736293.216.415.51411.3%4.5%91.410.8%33.2%32.3%46.2%15.943
LHBTEXvs TOR RHP Bieber#4 · Premium RBI/Power+579M59.326.948.00062%69.61,346239.160.380.55511.3%3.7%92.612.9%36.1%30.3%52.7%11.545
LHBTEXvs TOR RHP Bieber#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+661M55.324.940.00089%64.7987162.219.356.47913.2%4.4%92.010.9%32.7%27.3%49.1%14.241
RHBTEXvs TOR RHP Bieber#5 · Premium RBI/Power+735M51.322.136.00079%61.11,240205.195.314.44717.4%4.6%90.310.2%31.4%26.1%46.9%12.438
RHBTEXvs TOR RHP Bieber#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1079M37.322.545.00067%49.71,303246.183.372.5256.5%1.6%90.67.7%28.6%21.8%46.3%6.236
RHBTEXvs TOR RHP Bieber#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1210M33.320.845.00046%44.51,271238.139.343.5038.8%2.3%90.35.4%39.2%20.8%47.1%11.634
RHBTEXvs TOR RHP Bieber#6 · Secondary Power+1210M33.318.934.00046%44.41,049181.151.300.43013.8%2.1%88.95.5%33.2%20.7%37.0%10.330
LHBTEXvs TOR RHP Bieber#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1175M33.320.941.00043%46.21,342271.141.338.5189.8%2.2%89.96.9%30.1%22.5%44.2%6.733
LHBTEXvs TOR RHP Bieber#7 · Secondary Power+1351M31.317.435.00024%40.3686117.066.309.35111.3%1.3%87.73.3%31.0%29.3%35.0%13.228
TOR vs Kumar Rocker
9 hitters · primary stack for the home offense
TOR

TOR hitters

vsKumar Rocker(TEXTEX)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
RHBTORvs TEX RHP Rocker#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M81.374.847.000100%85.11,279186.234.336.45715.1%7.6%92.214.9%35.1%31.9%50.0%17.266
LHBTORvs TEX RHP Rocker#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+853M47.348.536.00064%56.5546100.168.364.50711.3%3.4%90.28.4%32.5%31.4%42.6%15.045
RHBTORvs TEX RHP Rocker#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1229M33.343.032.00044%44.21,287242.108.329.39911.3%2.2%88.75.4%31.6%30.2%38.1%13.937
RHBTORvs TEX RHP Rocker#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1175M33.346.036.00033%45.81,287251.084.347.4999.3%2.4%89.76.6%29.3%18.4%43.0%7.940
RHBTORvs TEX RHP Rocker#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1175M33.346.534.00055%46.31,973392.139.365.49211.3%2.8%89.57.0%32.1%30.8%40.4%14.540
LHBTORvs TEX RHP Rocker#6 · Secondary Power+1158M33.343.235.00015%46.9163.000.237.37511.3%3.1%89.87.5%32.2%31.0%41.2%14.739
RHBTORvs TEX RHP Rocker#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M33.342.632.00033%43.91,166217.105.326.44611.3%2.1%88.65.2%31.6%30.1%37.9%13.937
LHBTORvs TEX RHP Rocker#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1210M31.339.537.00056%44.61,010180.172.313.44710.8%2.6%86.07.2%37.0%22.7%39.2%14.038
RHBTORvs TEX RHP Rocker#7 · Secondary Power+1397M31.334.832.00038%39.01,228271.142.270.4239.4%1.1%85.42.6%33.3%26.7%24.5%16.033
TEX Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
TEX hitters vsShane Bieber(TOR)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Joc PedersonJoc PedersonLHB
.260.504.24412%53%25%
.268.476.2089%54%23%
.228.444.21610%47%34%
.214.417.20310%46%40%
.203.382.1799%44%43%
.221.432.21111%45%36%
.221.408.18710%43%37%
.200.355.1559%40%43%
#2Josh JungJosh JungRHB
.311.471.1606%51%16%
.320.445.1255%52%15%
.272.414.1425%45%22%
.223.341.1185%39%30%
.212.313.1014%37%32%
.231.353.1225%38%27%
.289.417.1285%45%22%
.262.363.1015%42%25%
#3Corey SeagerCorey SeagerLHB
.192.396.20416%47%29%
.198.374.17613%48%28%
.168.349.18114%42%40%
.158.328.17014%41%48%
.150.301.15112%39%51%
.163.339.17614%41%43%
.163.321.15814%38%44%
.148.279.13112%35%51%
#4Brandon NimmoBrandon NimmoLHB
.278.459.18114%57%19%
.286.433.14711%58%18%
.244.404.16012%50%26%
.228.379.15112%50%31%
.217.348.13111%47%34%
.237.393.15612%49%28%
.237.371.13412%46%29%
.214.323.10910%43%34%
#5Jake BurgerJake BurgerRHB
.268.487.21911%51%30%
.275.460.1859%52%28%
.235.428.19310%45%40%
.192.353.1619%39%55%
.183.324.1418%37%59%
.199.365.1669%38%50%
.249.432.18310%45%41%
.225.375.1509%42%47%
#6Ezequiel DuranEzequiel DuranRHB
.274.448.1746%40%24%
.282.423.1415%40%22%
.240.394.1545%35%32%
.197.325.1285%30%44%
.187.298.1114%29%47%
.204.336.1325%30%40%
.255.397.1426%35%32%
.231.345.1145%32%38%
#7Alejandro OsunaAlejandro OsunaLHB
.273.316.0430%36%13%
.281.299.0180%36%13%
.239.278.0390%31%18%
.224.262.0380%31%22%
.213.240.0270%30%23%
.232.271.0390%31%19%
.232.256.0240%29%20%
.210.223.0130%27%23%
#8Elias DíazElias DíazRHB
.294.518.2248%40%25%
.302.490.1886%40%23%
.258.456.1987%35%34%
.211.375.1646%30%46%
.201.344.1435%29%49%
.219.389.1706%30%41%
.274.459.1857%35%34%
.248.399.1517%32%39%
#9Nicky LopezNicky LopezLHB
.327.394.0670%25%15%
.336.372.0360%25%14%
.286.347.0610%22%21%
.268.326.0580%22%25%
.255.299.0440%21%27%
.278.337.0590%21%22%
.278.319.0410%20%23%
.251.277.0260%19%27%
TOR Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
TOR hitters vsKumar Rocker(TEX)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Luis UríasLuis UríasRHB
.350.720.37014%27%11%
.360.680.32011%28%10%
.306.634.32812%24%14%
.251.522.27110%21%20%
.239.479.2409%20%21%
.260.540.28011%20%18%
.326.638.31213%24%14%
.294.555.26111%22%17%
#2Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Vladimir Guerrero Jr.RHB
.287.387.1007%46%17%
.295.365.0706%47%16%
.251.340.0896%41%22%
.206.280.0746%36%31%
.196.257.0615%34%33%
.213.290.0776%35%27%
.267.343.0767%41%22%
.241.298.0576%38%26%
#3Daulton VarshoDaulton VarshoLHB
.279.476.1978%43%17%
.287.450.1636%43%16%
.245.419.1747%37%23%
.229.394.1657%37%28%
.218.361.1436%35%30%
.237.407.1707%36%25%
.238.385.1477%34%26%
.215.335.1206%32%30%
#4Kazuma OkamotoKazuma OkamotoRHB
.253.507.25417%54%29%
.260.478.21813%55%27%
.222.446.22414%48%39%
.182.367.18513%41%53%
.173.337.16411%39%57%
.188.380.19213%41%48%
.236.449.21315%48%39%
.213.390.17713%44%45%
#5Alejandro KirkAlejandro KirkRHB
.206.318.1123%37%21%
.212.300.0882%38%20%
.180.279.0992%32%29%
.148.230.0822%28%39%
.141.211.0702%27%42%
.153.238.0852%28%35%
.192.281.0892%33%29%
.173.245.0722%30%33%
#6Sean KeysSean KeysLHB
#7Ernie ClementErnie ClementRHB
.309.473.1643%27%14%
.318.447.1292%27%13%
.270.416.1463%24%19%
.222.343.1212%21%25%
.211.314.1032%20%27%
.230.355.1252%20%23%
.287.419.1323%24%19%
.260.364.1042%22%22%
#8Yohendrick PiñangoYohendrick PiñangoLHB
.297.468.1718%49%22%
.306.442.1366%50%20%
.260.411.1517%43%29%
.244.386.1427%43%35%
.232.355.1236%41%38%
.253.400.1477%42%31%
.253.378.1257%40%32%
.229.329.1006%37%37%
#9Myles StrawMyles StrawRHB
.258.368.1104%29%11%
.266.348.0823%29%10%
.226.324.0984%25%15%
.186.267.0813%22%20%
.177.245.0683%21%22%
.192.276.0843%22%18%
.240.326.0864%26%15%
.217.284.0673%24%17%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Kazuma Okamoto
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M47.000324N/A18N/A.241.324.469.234.3459.9%92.2
Corey Seager
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+626M45.000209N/A9N/A.183.287.367.216.28812.0%91.4
Brandon Nimmo
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+579M48.000340N/A8N/A.265.332.425.160.3327.6%92.6
Joc Pederson
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+661M40.000253N/A12N/A.248.349.467.219.35512.6%92.0
Jake Burger
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+735M36.000314N/A14N/A.255.315.451.195.3347.6%90.3
Yohendrick Piñango
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+853M36.000136N/A4N/A.283.331.433.168.3366.6%90.2
Elias Díaz
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1079M45.00052N/A2N/A.280.288.480.183.3271.9%90.6
Josh Jung
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1210M45.000321N/A8N/A.296.355.436.139.3497.5%90.3
Ezequiel Duran
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1210M34.000265N/A6N/A.261.318.415.151.3217.5%88.9
Nicky Lopez
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1175M41.00080N/A1N/A.311.346.365.141.3193.8%89.9
Luis Urías
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1229M32.00010N/A1N/A.333.400.667.108.45310.0%88.7
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1175M36.000326N/A4N/A.273.356.358.084.31710.7%89.7
Alejandro Kirk
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1175M34.00056N/A1N/A.196.250.294.139.2437.1%89.5
Sean Keys
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1158M35.000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A.000N/AN/A89.8
Myles Straw
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M32.000143N/A2N/A.246.312.341.105.2939.1%88.6
Alejandro Osuna
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+1351M35.000144N/AN/AN/A.260.364.293.066.3099.0%87.7
Daulton Varsho
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1210M37.000255N/A7N/A.266.337.441.172.3399.0%86.0
Ernie Clement
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+1397M32.000311N/A7N/A.294.315.438.142.3273.2%85.4
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Kumar Rocker
Kumar Rocker
TEX · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season61.3274.261.359.0981.4881.179.9%24.8%17.9%13.4%24.8%7.197.6%43.3%20.5%
vs LHB41.7182.268.343.378.1101.4961.309.9%24.8%22.0%24.8%8.647.6%43.3%20.5%
vs RHB32.0139.220.266.268.0481.2520.568.6%24.8%18.0%24.8%7.037.6%43.3%20.5%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3024.0108.258.381.1231.4641.509.3%24.8%17.6%24.8%7.127.6%43.3%20.5%
L1513.062.316.474.1581.7732.088.1%24.8%19.4%24.8%8.317.6%43.3%20.5%
Shane Bieber
Shane Bieber
TOR · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season3.719.474.947.4732.4337.360.0%15.4%10.5%15.4%4.9129.4%58.8%47.1%
vs LHB0.76.667.5001.167.5006.00113.500.0%15.4%0.0%15.4%0.0029.4%58.8%47.1%
vs RHB3.013.385.500.846.4611.6726.000.0%15.4%15.4%15.4%6.0029.4%58.8%47.1%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L303.719.474.947.4732.4337.360.0%15.4%10.5%15.4%4.9129.4%58.8%47.1%
L153.719.474.947.4732.4337.360.0%15.4%10.5%15.4%4.9129.4%58.8%47.1%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Kumar Rocker
Kumar Rocker
TEX · RHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Slider38.9%.171.200.239.0680.0%39.1%39.0%24.5%0.0%83.30.0%31.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker31.9%.343.448.524.1810.0%9.7%6.4%12.1%0.0%94.30.0%52.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter12.4%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%90.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam10.6%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%94.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup6.3%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%88.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Shane Bieber
Shane Bieber
TOR · RHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam30.7%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%91.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter24.0%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider20.0%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%84.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup17.3%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%88.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Knuckle Curve8.0%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-06-28 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Jun 2026