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CT
BAL
BAL@TOR
FIRST PITCH
TOR
Game 5 of 15 Sun · Sep 13, 5:37 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · BAL vs Dylan Cease · TOR vs Trevor Rogers

#1Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma OkamotoRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
TOR· 3Bvs BAL LHP Rogers
🟢 Strong
Test
77
Ceil
83
Likely
66
kHR
81
Zone
44
Form
97%
EV
90.6
Brl%
13.6%
ISO
.225
xwOBA
.325
xwOBAc
.446
SwStr%
15.8%
PullBrl
7.1%
SwtSp%
34.4%
HH%
44.3%
strong Barrel 14%, power ISO .225, pull-side power+424MODEL
#2Pete Alonso
Pete AlonsoRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
BAL· 1Bvs TOR RHP Cease
🟢 Strong
Test
69
Ceil
83
Likely
63
kHR
77
Zone
38
Form
100%
EV
94.0
Brl%
13.9%
ISO
.228
xwOBA
.392
xwOBAc
.551
SwStr%
12.4%
PullBrl
4.9%
SwtSp%
35.5%
HH%
56.6%
strong Barrel 14%, power ISO .228, 94.0 EV+433MODEL
#3Colton Cowser
Colton CowserLHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot
BAL· CFvs TOR RHP Cease
🟠 Longshot
Test
55
Ceil
70
Likely
53
kHR
63
Zone
34
Form
77%
EV
90.7
Brl%
9.4%
ISO
.189
xwOBA
.332
xwOBAc
.389
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.9%
SwtSp%
32.8%
HH%
44.2%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+699MODEL
#4Dylan Beavers
Dylan BeaversLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
BAL· LFvs TOR RHP Cease
🟠 Longshot
Test
47
Ceil
72
Likely
51
kHR
57
Zone
33
Form
64%
EV
90.3
Brl%
8.6%
ISO
.173
xwOBA
.398
xwOBAc
.427
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.5%
SwtSp%
32.6%
HH%
43.0%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+843MODEL
#5Coby Mayo
Coby MayoRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
BAL· DHvs TOR RHP Cease
🟠 Longshot
Test
47
Ceil
69
Likely
51
kHR
57
Zone
33
Form
68%
EV
90.3
Brl%
8.6%
ISO
.171
xwOBA
.345
xwOBAc
.411
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.5%
SwtSp%
32.6%
HH%
42.8%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+843MODEL
#6Samuel Basallo
Samuel BasalloLHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
BAL· Cvs TOR RHP Cease
🟠 Longshot
Test
47
Ceil
67
Likely
49
kHR
56
Zone
32
Form
62%
EV
90.1
Brl%
8.2%
ISO
.165
xwOBA
.294
xwOBAc
.330
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.4%
SwtSp%
32.5%
HH%
42.4%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+853MODEL
#7Christian Encarnacion-Strand
Christian Encarnacion-StrandRHB#6 · Secondary Power
BAL· 3Bvs TOR RHP Cease
🟠 Longshot
Test
47
Ceil
67
Likely
50
kHR
57
Zone
33
Form
71%
EV
90.2
Brl%
8.5%
ISO
.169
xwOBA
.299
xwOBAc
.396
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.5%
SwtSp%
32.5%
HH%
42.7%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+843MODEL
#8Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar HendersonLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
BAL· SSvs TOR RHP Cease
🔴 Fade
Test
33
Ceil
65
Likely
45
kHR
46
Zone
31
Form
62%
EV
89.3
Brl%
7.0%
ISO
.175
xwOBA
.316
xwOBAc
.438
SwStr%
11.1%
PullBrl
3.0%
SwtSp%
31.4%
HH%
43.2%
off-platoon+1175MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — BAL
vs Dylan Cease (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

BALBAL
vs Dylan Cease (TOR)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — TOR
vs Trevor Rogers (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

TORTOR
vs Trevor Rogers (BAL)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
BAL + TOR · Combined Hitter Matrix
Both lineups in one table · sticky HITTER + TEAM columns · filter to one side with the chips
BALvsTOR

BAL + TOR hitters

combined matrix · click any header to sort · click a row for detail
HitterTeamHandMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
BAL Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
BAL hitters vsDylan Cease(TOR)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Dylan BeaversDylan BeaversLHB
.254.415.1618%41%21%
.261.392.1316%42%20%
.223.365.1427%36%28%
.208.343.1357%36%34%
.198.314.1166%34%36%
.216.355.1397%35%30%
.216.336.1206%33%31%
.195.292.0976%31%36%
#2Pete AlonsoPete AlonsoRHB
.279.538.25915%61%23%
.287.508.22112%62%22%
.245.473.22813%54%31%
.201.389.18812%47%43%
.191.357.16610%44%46%
.208.403.19512%46%38%
.260.476.21614%54%31%
.235.414.17912%50%37%
#3Gunnar HendersonGunnar HendersonLHB
.233.429.1968%47%20%
.240.405.1656%47%19%
.204.377.1737%41%27%
.191.354.1637%41%32%
.182.325.1436%39%35%
.198.367.1697%40%29%
.198.347.1496%38%30%
.179.302.1236%35%35%
#4Coby MayoCoby MayoRHB
.234.503.26914%52%26%
.241.475.23411%53%25%
.205.443.23812%46%35%
.168.364.19611%40%48%
.160.334.17410%38%52%
.174.377.20311%39%43%
.218.446.22813%46%35%
.197.388.19112%42%41%
#5Samuel BasalloSamuel BasalloLHB
.238.446.20814%47%27%
.245.421.17611%48%25%
.209.392.18312%41%37%
.195.369.17412%41%44%
.186.338.15210%39%47%
.203.382.17912%40%39%
.203.361.15811%38%40%
.183.314.13110%35%47%
#6Christian Encarnacion-StrandChristian Encarnacion-StrandRHB
.276.512.23618%42%24%
.284.483.19914%43%22%
.242.450.20815%37%32%
.198.371.17313%33%44%
.189.340.15112%31%47%
.206.384.17814%32%39%
.257.454.19716%38%32%
.232.394.16214%35%37%
#7Jackson HollidayJackson HollidayLHB
.239.369.1307%36%23%
.246.349.1036%37%22%
.210.325.1156%32%31%
.196.305.1096%32%37%
.187.280.0936%30%40%
.203.316.1136%31%33%
.204.299.0956%29%34%
.184.260.0765%27%40%
#8Leody TaverasLeody TaverasSHB
.229.375.1465%36%21%
.235.354.1194%37%20%
.201.330.1294%32%29%
.179.295.1164%30%36%
.170.271.1013%28%39%
.185.305.1204%29%32%
.205.319.1144%31%30%
.185.278.0934%28%35%
#9Colton CowserColton CowserLHB
.227.397.17011%45%28%
.233.375.1429%45%26%
.199.350.15110%39%37%
.186.328.14210%39%45%
.177.301.1249%37%48%
.193.340.14710%38%40%
.193.322.1299%36%41%
.174.280.1068%33%48%
TOR Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
TOR hitters vsTrevor Rogers(BAL)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Brett BatemanBrett BatemanLHB
.353.478.1252%22%14%
.363.452.0892%23%14%
.309.421.1122%20%20%
.253.346.0932%17%27%
.241.318.0772%16%29%
.263.359.0962%17%24%
.328.424.0962%20%20%
.297.369.0722%18%23%
#2George SpringerGeorge SpringerRHB
.263.441.1788%42%20%
.270.416.1466%43%19%
.230.388.1587%37%27%
.215.364.1496%37%32%
.205.334.1296%35%34%
.223.377.1547%36%29%
.223.357.1346%34%29%
.202.310.1086%31%34%
#3Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Vladimir Guerrero Jr.RHB
.272.380.1087%48%17%
.280.359.0796%49%16%
.238.334.0966%42%23%
.223.314.0916%42%27%
.212.288.0766%40%29%
.231.325.0947%41%25%
.231.308.0776%39%25%
.209.268.0595%36%29%
#4Kazuma OkamotoKazuma OkamotoRHB
.247.496.24915%48%28%
.254.468.21412%49%27%
.216.436.22013%42%38%
.202.410.20813%42%46%
.192.376.18411%40%49%
.210.424.21413%41%41%
.210.401.19112%39%42%
.190.349.15911%36%49%
#5Charles McAdooCharles McAdooRHB
.259.374.1156%31%19%
.267.353.0864%31%18%
.227.329.1025%27%26%
.213.309.0965%27%31%
.202.283.0814%25%33%
.220.320.1005%26%28%
.221.302.0815%25%29%
.199.263.0644%23%33%
#6Ernie ClementErnie ClementRHB
.287.414.1272%22%13%
.295.391.0962%22%12%
.251.364.1132%19%18%
.235.342.1072%19%21%
.224.314.0902%18%23%
.244.354.1102%18%19%
.244.335.0912%17%19%
.220.291.0712%16%23%
#7Andrés GiménezAndrés GiménezLHB
.257.391.1344%27%21%
.265.369.1043%28%20%
.225.344.1193%24%28%
.185.283.0983%21%39%
.176.260.0843%20%41%
.192.293.1013%20%35%
.240.346.1063%24%28%
.217.301.0843%22%33%
#8Brandon ValenzuelaBrandon ValenzuelaSHB
.226.392.1668%40%22%
.232.370.1386%41%20%
.198.345.1477%35%29%
.176.309.1336%33%37%
.168.283.1156%32%40%
.183.319.1366%33%33%
.202.334.1327%34%31%
.183.290.1076%32%36%
#9Myles StrawMyles StrawRHB
.248.374.1263%29%11%
.255.353.0983%29%10%
.217.329.1123%25%15%
.203.309.1063%25%18%
.193.283.0903%24%19%
.211.320.1093%25%16%
.211.302.0913%23%16%
.191.263.0722%21%19%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHand★SpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Kazuma Okamoto
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M44.000584N/A31N/A.235.310.459.225.3348.9%90.6
Pete Alonso
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+433M38.000647N/A35N/A.266.362.498.228.37111.7%94.0
Colton Cowser
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+699M34.000357N/A13N/A.216.309.368.189.30311.8%90.7
Dylan Beavers
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+843M33.000314N/A7N/A.242.316.384.173.3109.2%90.3
Coby Mayo
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+843M33.000402N/A23N/A.223.289.466.171.3267.2%90.3
Samuel Basallo
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+853M32.000376N/A17N/A.227.298.413.165.3108.2%90.1
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+843M33.000171N/A8N/A.263.318.474.169.3415.8%90.2
Gunnar Henderson
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1175M31.000655N/A22N/A.222.305.397.175.3099.5%89.3
Jackson Holliday
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+1175M30.000346N/A7N/A.228.301.342.133.2869.8%89.3
Leody Taveras
SHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M28.000454N/A8N/A.218.290.347.099.2848.8%88.5
Brett Bateman
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1229M30.000139N/A2N/A.336.401.443.107.3748.6%88.7
George Springer
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1175M32.000475N/A14N/A.250.322.408.160.3229.1%88.6
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1175M35.000568N/A8N/A.259.331.352.092.3049.2%90.5
Charles McAdoo
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1229M30.00088N/A2N/A.247.295.346.099.2856.8%88.5
Brandon Valenzuela
SHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1158M33.000252N/A8N/A.215.299.363.148.29610.3%89.7
Myles Straw
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M30.000296N/A3N/A.236.301.346.105.2898.4%88.6
Ernie Clement
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1422M31.000575N/A9N/A.273.299.383.110.2983.7%84.1
Andrés Giménez
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+1351M23.000474N/A9N/A.245.290.362.116.2863.4%85.5
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Trevor Rogers
Trevor Rogers
BAL · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season151.7629.250—.331.0811.21160.955.9%23.8%21.9%10.8%23.8%8.19——6.7%37.0%24.4%——
vs LHB39.7158.196.250.216.0200.9810.236.3%23.8%25.3%—23.8%9.08——6.7%37.0%24.4%——
vs RHB111.3471.266.320.367.1011.30151.215.7%23.8%20.8%—23.8%7.92——6.7%37.0%24.4%——
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
L3032.0126.260—.358.0981.0941.122.4%23.8%28.6%—23.8%10.12——6.7%37.0%24.4%——
L1519.073.264—.347.0831.0520.951.4%23.8%32.9%—23.8%11.37——6.7%37.0%24.4%——
Dylan Cease
Dylan Cease
TOR · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season161.3644.176—.233.0571.04110.6110.4%33.6%35.2%16.7%33.6%12.66——5.2%32.3%22.8%——
vs LHB95.0376.161.250.233.0721.0080.7610.9%33.6%36.4%—33.6%12.98——5.2%32.3%22.8%——
vs RHB66.3268.194.250.231.0371.1030.419.7%33.6%33.6%—33.6%12.21——5.2%32.3%22.8%——
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
L3030.0115.154—.212.0580.9020.609.6%33.6%31.3%—33.6%10.80——5.2%32.3%22.8%——
L1517.065.194—.290.0960.8821.064.6%33.6%27.7%—33.6%9.53——5.2%32.3%22.8%——
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Trevor Rogers
Trevor Rogers
BAL · LHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball46.3%—.233.324.425.192—0.0%24.2%23.8%18.6%0.0%93.8——0.0%41.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup20.8%—.326.382.459.133—0.0%23.2%11.3%10.3%0.0%87.0——0.0%41.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper14.1%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%78.1——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker10.1%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%93.4——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter8.7%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%83.1——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Dylan Cease
Dylan Cease
TOR · RHP · 6 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball36.8%—.205.306.329.124—0.0%26.0%31.8%23.2%0.0%97.0——0.0%38.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider30.3%—.134.196.188.054—0.0%44.3%41.8%27.1%0.0%88.8——0.0%25.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup11.5%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%81.6——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Knuckle Curve9.8%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%81.9——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker7.9%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%95.9——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper3.7%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%83.4——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-09-13 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Sep 2026