Clutch Algorithm
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CT
PIT
PIT@WSH
FINAL
WSH
Game 1 of 15 Fri · Jul 3, 10:45 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · PIT vs Foster Griffin · WSH vs Mitch Keller

#1Brandon Lowe
Brandon LoweLHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
PIT· DHvs WSH LHP Griffin
🔥 Elite
Test
80
Ceil
77
Likely
66
kHR
82
Zone
48
Form
100%
EV
91.0
Brl%
13.1%
ISO
.255
xwOBA
.346
xwOBAc
.480
SwStr%
17.3%
PullBrl
5.9%
SwtSp%
35.8%
HH%
46.3%
strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .255, pull-side power+424MODEL
#2Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn ValdezRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
PIT· RFvs WSH LHP Griffin
🔥 Elite
Test
80
Ceil
95
Likely
77
kHR
91
Zone
58
Form
100%
EV
94.0
Brl%
20.0%
ISO
.403
xwOBA
.508
xwOBAc
.710
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
9.1%
SwtSp%
36.0%
HH%
60.0%
elite Barrel 20%, elite ISO .403, 94.0 EV+424MODEL
#3James Wood
James WoodLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
WSH· RFvs PIT RHP Keller
🟢 Strong
Test
68
Ceil
70
Likely
63
kHR
88
Zone
38
Form
100%
EV
95.1
Brl%
23.1%
ISO
.257
xwOBA
.418
xwOBAc
.568
SwStr%
12.3%
PullBrl
6.6%
SwtSp%
42.6%
HH%
59.7%
elite Barrel 23%, power ISO .257, 95.1 EV+424MODEL
#4Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr.LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
WSH· 1Bvs PIT RHP Keller
🟡 Viable
Test
60
Ceil
52
Likely
49
kHR
66
Zone
38
Form
93%
EV
92.2
Brl%
9.8%
ISO
.257
xwOBA
.347
xwOBAc
.531
SwStr%
10.2%
PullBrl
4.0%
SwtSp%
32.2%
HH%
47.1%
power ISO .257 (matchup soft)+631MODEL
#5CJ Abrams
CJ AbramsLHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
WSH· SSvs PIT RHP Keller
🟠 Longshot
Test
56
Ceil
48
Likely
45
kHR
64
Zone
30
Form
91%
EV
90.0
Brl%
10.2%
ISO
.238
xwOBA
.339
xwOBAc
.470
SwStr%
14.9%
PullBrl
4.6%
SwtSp%
33.5%
HH%
41.5%
strong Barrel 10%, power ISO .238 (matchup soft)+673MODEL
#6Bryan Reynolds
Bryan ReynoldsSHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
PIT· LFvs WSH LHP Griffin
🟠 Longshot
Test
50
Ceil
57
Likely
49
kHR
60
Zone
38
Form
65%
EV
91.4
Brl%
9.8%
ISO
.179
xwOBA
.366
xwOBAc
.484
SwStr%
13.1%
PullBrl
3.9%
SwtSp%
36.3%
HH%
47.9%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+750MODEL
#7Endy Rodríguez
Endy RodríguezSHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot
PIT· Cvs WSH LHP Griffin
🟠 Longshot
Test
46
Ceil
53
Likely
46
kHR
57
Zone
35
Form
67%
EV
90.2
Brl%
9.1%
ISO
.165
xwOBA
.351
xwOBAc
.511
SwStr%
14.2%
PullBrl
3.3%
SwtSp%
33.1%
HH%
44.4%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+843MODEL
#8Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'HearnLHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
PIT· 1Bvs WSH LHP Griffin
🟠 Longshot
Test
36
Ceil
49
Likely
42
kHR
47
Zone
39
Form
69%
EV
89.5
Brl%
6.3%
ISO
.186
xwOBA
.324
xwOBAc
.472
SwStr%
10.5%
PullBrl
2.4%
SwtSp%
34.6%
HH%
43.8%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+1141MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — PIT
vs Foster Griffin (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

PITPIT
vs Foster Griffin (WSH)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — WSH
vs Mitch Keller (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

WSHWSH
vs Mitch Keller (PIT)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
PIT vs Foster Griffin
9 hitters · primary stack for the away offense
PIT

PIT hitters

vsFoster Griffin(WSHWSH)LHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBPITvs WSH LHP Griffin#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M80.377.048.000100%82.11,408223.255.346.48017.3%5.9%91.013.1%35.8%34.9%46.3%17.166
RHBPITvs WSH LHP Griffin#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M80.394.858.000100%91.026940.403.508.71011.3%9.1%94.020.0%36.0%36.1%60.0%19.377
SHBPITvs WSH LHP Griffin#3 · Premium RBI/Power+750M50.356.638.00065%60.21,490232.179.366.48413.1%3.9%91.49.8%36.3%24.8%47.9%6.249
SHBPITvs WSH LHP Griffin#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+843M46.353.435.00067%56.71,474265.165.351.51114.2%3.3%90.29.1%33.1%24.4%44.4%12.546
LHBPITvs WSH LHP Griffin#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1141M36.349.339.00069%47.21,170206.186.324.47210.5%2.4%89.56.3%34.6%28.4%43.8%13.642
RHBPITvs WSH LHP Griffin#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1192M32.350.137.00045%45.3924154.134.350.47711.3%2.7%89.36.7%32.0%30.7%40.0%14.441
RHBPITvs WSH LHP Griffin#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M32.349.337.00043%45.01,466255.129.335.40511.3%2.6%89.26.5%31.9%30.6%39.7%14.341
RHBPITvs WSH LHP Griffin#6 · Secondary Power+1397M30.341.031.00025%38.81,299244.082.326.48212.8%1.2%85.72.9%32.2%19.6%35.9%5.535
SHBPITvs WSH LHP Griffin#7 · Secondary Power+1351M30.344.733.00020%40.11,669341.072.324.48011.3%1.4%87.83.6%31.1%29.4%35.4%13.337
WSH vs Mitch Keller
9 hitters · primary stack for the home offense
WSH

WSH hitters

vsMitch Keller(PITPIT)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBWSHvs PIT RHP Keller#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M68.369.538.000100%87.71,603214.257.418.56812.3%6.6%95.123.1%42.6%29.2%59.7%10.563
LHBWSHvs PIT RHP Keller#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+631M60.351.538.00093%66.41,096226.257.347.53110.2%4.0%92.29.8%32.2%21.1%47.1%11.449
LHBWSHvs PIT RHP Keller#4 · Premium RBI/Power+673M56.347.730.00091%64.01,384233.238.339.47014.9%4.6%90.010.2%33.5%28.8%41.5%18.045
LHBWSHvs PIT RHP Keller#6 · Secondary Power+1175M34.340.432.00047%45.91,435274.146.311.45312.2%2.7%87.46.5%35.6%34.2%33.9%17.437
LHBWSHvs PIT RHP Keller#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1229M32.342.530.00022%43.9659115.112.330.42011.3%2.2%88.85.6%31.7%30.2%38.4%14.037
RHBWSHvs PIT RHP Keller#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1175M32.344.533.00056%45.91,256217.144.320.38411.3%2.9%89.67.2%32.2%30.9%40.8%14.639
SHBWSHvs PIT RHP Keller#7 · Secondary Power+1351M30.338.428.00020%39.91,041229.071.287.40611.3%1.4%87.83.5%31.1%29.4%35.3%13.333
LHBWSHvs PIT RHP Keller#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1308M30.339.629.00032%41.225743.089.287.28611.3%1.8%88.24.5%31.3%29.8%36.7%13.635
SHBWSHvs PIT RHP Keller#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1499M30.332.629.00010%35.91,108177.053.272.35611.2%0.2%85.00.6%33.2%17.9%20.1%9.530
PIT Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
PIT hitters vsFoster Griffin(WSH)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Konnor GriffinKonnor GriffinRHB
.282.438.1569%40%28%
.291.414.1237%41%26%
.247.386.1398%35%37%
.232.362.1308%35%45%
.220.333.1137%33%48%
.240.375.1358%34%40%
.240.355.1157%32%41%
.217.309.0926%30%48%
#2Brandon LoweBrandon LoweLHB
.255.538.28314%50%29%
.262.508.24611%51%28%
.224.473.24912%44%40%
.183.389.20611%38%55%
.174.357.18310%36%58%
.190.403.21311%38%49%
.238.476.23813%44%40%
.215.414.19912%41%47%
#3Bryan ReynoldsBryan ReynoldsSHB
.294.496.20211%52%25%
.302.468.1668%53%24%
.258.436.1789%46%34%
.230.390.1609%43%43%
.218.358.1408%41%46%
.238.404.1669%42%38%
.263.422.1599%44%35%
.238.367.1298%41%41%
#4Esmerlyn ValdezEsmerlyn ValdezRHB
.332.796.46433%61%32%
.341.752.41125%63%30%
.291.700.40928%54%44%
.272.658.38628%54%52%
.259.604.34525%51%56%
.282.681.39929%53%47%
.282.644.36227%50%48%
.255.560.30524%46%56%
#5Ryan O'HearnRyan O'HearnLHB
.299.509.2107%47%19%
.308.480.1725%48%18%
.262.447.1856%42%26%
.215.368.1535%36%35%
.205.338.1335%34%38%
.223.381.1585%36%32%
.279.451.1726%42%26%
.252.392.1406%39%30%
#6Nick GonzalesNick GonzalesRHB
.320.418.0983%39%20%
.329.395.0663%40%19%
.281.368.0873%34%28%
.263.345.0823%34%33%
.250.317.0672%32%35%
.272.358.0863%33%30%
.272.338.0663%31%30%
.246.294.0482%29%35%
#7Jake MangumJake MangumSHB
.326.401.0751%29%17%
.335.378.0431%29%16%
.285.352.0671%25%23%
.254.315.0611%24%29%
.242.289.0471%23%31%
.264.326.0621%23%26%
.291.341.0501%24%24%
.264.297.0331%23%28%
#8Endy RodríguezEndy RodríguezSHB
.282.535.25315%50%22%
.291.505.21412%51%21%
.247.470.22313%44%30%
.221.421.20012%42%38%
.210.386.17611%39%41%
.229.436.20713%41%34%
.253.455.20213%43%32%
.229.396.16712%39%37%
#9Jared TrioloJared TrioloRHB
.244.323.0792%40%22%
.251.305.0541%41%21%
.213.284.0712%35%30%
.200.267.0672%35%36%
.190.245.0551%33%38%
.207.276.0692%34%32%
.207.261.0542%32%33%
.187.227.0401%30%38%
WSH Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
WSH hitters vsMitch Keller(PIT)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1James WoodJames WoodLHB
.278.564.28625%65%27%
.286.532.24620%66%26%
.244.496.25222%57%37%
.228.466.23822%56%44%
.217.428.21119%53%47%
.237.482.24522%55%40%
.237.456.21921%52%40%
.214.397.18319%48%47%
#2Luis García Jr.Luis García Jr.LHB
.294.580.28611%51%16%
.302.548.2468%52%15%
.258.510.2529%45%22%
.241.479.2389%45%26%
.229.440.2118%42%28%
.250.496.24610%44%23%
.250.469.2199%41%24%
.226.408.1828%38%28%
#3José TenaJosé TenaLHB
.236.401.16510%56%32%
.243.378.1358%57%30%
.207.352.1459%49%43%
.194.331.1379%49%51%
.184.304.1208%46%55%
.201.343.1429%48%46%
.201.324.1239%45%47%
.182.282.1008%42%55%
#4CJ AbramsCJ AbramsLHB
.287.552.26511%45%25%
.295.521.2269%46%23%
.251.485.23410%39%34%
.235.456.22110%39%41%
.224.419.1959%37%43%
.244.472.22810%38%36%
.244.447.2039%36%37%
.220.388.1688%34%43%
#5Dylan CrewsDylan CrewsRHB
.246.402.15610%49%25%
.253.379.1268%50%23%
.215.353.1388%43%34%
.177.291.1147%37%46%
.168.267.0997%35%49%
.183.301.1187%37%41%
.229.356.1279%43%34%
.207.310.1038%40%39%
#6Daylen LileDaylen LileLHB
.263.428.1657%37%19%
.270.404.1346%37%18%
.230.376.1466%32%26%
.215.353.1386%32%31%
.205.324.1196%30%33%
.223.366.1436%31%28%
.223.346.1236%30%28%
.202.301.0995%27%33%
#7Keibert RuizKeibert RuizSHB
.299.513.2146%43%12%
.308.484.1764%44%12%
.262.451.1895%38%17%
.234.404.1705%36%21%
.222.370.1484%34%22%
.242.418.1765%35%19%
.268.437.1695%37%17%
.242.380.1384%34%20%
#8Jorbit VivasJorbit VivasLHB
.263.378.1155%29%16%
.270.357.0874%29%15%
.230.332.1024%25%21%
.215.312.0974%25%25%
.205.287.0824%24%27%
.223.323.1004%24%23%
.223.306.0834%23%23%
.202.266.0644%21%27%
#9Nasim NuñezNasim NuñezSHB
.245.309.06466%22%20%
.252.292.04051%22%19%
.214.272.05857%19%27%
.191.243.05254%18%34%
.182.223.04148%17%36%
.198.252.05455%18%30%
.219.263.04458%19%28%
.198.229.03151%17%33%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Brandon Lowe
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M48.000361N/A20N/A.243.319.498.255.34910.0%91.0
Esmerlyn Valdez
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+424M58.00064N/A6N/A.316.375.737.403.4599.4%94.0
James Wood
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M38.000411N/A22N/A.265.389.522.257.38916.1%95.1
Luis García Jr.
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+631M38.000281N/A16N/A.280.310.537.257.3614.3%92.2
CJ Abrams
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+673M30.000355N/A18N/A.273.355.511.238.3738.7%90.0
Bryan Reynolds
SHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+750M38.000382N/A11N/A.280.395.459.179.37614.9%91.4
Endy Rodríguez
SHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+843M35.000114N/A5N/A.269.398.495.165.39217.5%90.2
Ryan O'Hearn
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1141M39.000300N/A13N/A.285.340.471.186.3527.3%89.5
Daylen Lile
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1175M32.000368N/A8N/A.250.304.396.146.3066.5%87.4
Konnor Griffin
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1192M37.000232N/A5N/A.269.323.406.134.3216.0%89.3
Jared Triolo
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M37.000184N/A1N/A.232.308.299.129.2788.2%89.2
José Tena
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1229M30.000164N/A3N/A.225.287.371.112.2907.3%88.8
Dylan Crews
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1175M33.000155N/A5N/A.234.284.372.144.2913.9%89.6
Nick Gonzales
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1397M31.000333N/A4N/A.305.360.387.082.3346.3%85.7
Jake Mangum
SHB#7 · Secondary Power+1351M33.000216N/A1N/A.310.357.371.072.3245.6%87.8
Keibert Ruiz
SHB#7 · Secondary Power+1351M28.000190N/A6N/A.285.316.475.071.3403.7%87.8
Jorbit Vivas
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1308M29.000184N/A3N/A.250.326.350.089.3058.2%88.2
Nasim Nuñez
SHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1499M29.000284N/A1N/A.233.320.286.053.28010.9%85.0
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller
PIT · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season100.3428.253.345.0921.31121.087.7%20.7%17.3%9.1%20.7%6.646.3%41.5%23.9%
vs LHB61.0268.275.340.394.1191.41101.486.3%20.7%16.0%20.7%6.346.3%41.5%23.9%
vs RHB38.3160.201.254.243.0421.1720.4710.0%20.7%19.4%20.7%7.286.3%41.5%23.9%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3027.3123.282.473.1911.5072.308.1%20.7%15.4%20.7%6.266.3%41.5%23.9%
L1518.075.278.486.2081.2252.502.7%20.7%12.0%20.7%4.506.3%41.5%23.9%
Foster Griffin
Foster Griffin
WSH · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season103.3420.209.341.1321.04171.486.2%25.1%23.8%13.1%25.1%8.7110.4%37.4%26.7%
vs LHB31.0121.148.250.252.1040.7441.165.0%25.1%29.8%25.1%10.4510.4%37.4%26.7%
vs RHB72.3299.229.313.369.1401.16131.626.7%25.1%21.4%25.1%7.9610.4%37.4%26.7%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3031.3123.197.274.0770.8930.864.1%25.1%25.2%25.1%8.9010.4%37.4%26.7%
L1519.373.157.243.0860.7320.934.1%25.1%27.4%25.1%9.3110.4%37.4%26.7%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller
PIT · RHP · 7 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball31.9%.248.301.343.0950.0%17.5%12.9%12.5%0.0%93.40.0%48.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker17.3%.339.399.373.0340.0%15.7%8.3%13.0%0.0%92.30.0%50.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper16.9%.187.299.413.2260.0%23.6%25.0%17.2%0.0%82.10.0%34.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball9.3%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%77.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider8.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup8.7%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%88.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter7.1%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%89.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Foster Griffin
Foster Griffin
WSH · LHP · 7 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Cutter31.8%.203.285.398.1950.0%21.7%18.8%20.9%0.0%88.10.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam Fastball17.4%.189.335.415.2260.0%19.6%30.8%17.7%0.0%91.50.0%39.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper14.4%.241.292.407.1660.0%35.4%33.9%23.2%0.0%79.80.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball10.5%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%77.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup10.4%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker10.3%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%91.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Splitter5.1%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%81.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-07-03 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Jul 2026